Training Program Course

This online course provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty. The course discusses how to think about public debt projections when we acknowledge uncertainty about the key variables underlying debt projections (GDP growth, interest and exchange rates, and primary balances).

This course allows participants to produce and interpret fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time). The course also presents the concepts of maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy) and safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer). The course explains how to use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt and how to assess fiscal risks.