Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx)

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Published: July 17, 2025

Upcoming offerings

Start date	End date	Location	Delivery Method	Session No.	Primary & (Interpretation) language	Apply
May 1, 2026	April 15, 2027	Course conducted online	[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)	OL 26.123	French	[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027
May 1, 2026	April 15, 2027	Course conducted online	[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)	OL 26.126	Arabic	[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027
May 1, 2026	April 15, 2027	Course conducted online	[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)	OL 26.131	English	[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027
May 1, 2026	April 15, 2027	Course conducted online	[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)	OL 26.125	Portuguese	[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027
May 1, 2026	April 15, 2027	Course conducted online	[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)	OL 26.124	Spanish	[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027

Overview

An online course that provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.
Focuses on projecting public debt when key underlying variables are uncertain: GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and primary balances.
Teaches production and interpretation of fan charts as graphical tools to describe uncertainty about a variable’s evolution over time.

Key tools and concepts

Fan charts: used to depict uncertainty around public debt projections and to derive a safe level of debt.
Maximum debt limit: defined as the level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy.
Safe debt: a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer.
Stress testing: conducting stress tests of public debt projections, including using fan charts, to assess fiscal risks.

Target audience and prerequisites

Target audience:
- Officials from ministries of finance
- Debt agencies
- Central banks
- Other government agencies responsible for advising on or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies
Qualifications:
- Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.
- Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.

Course objectives

Project public debt.
Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.
Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.
Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.
Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.

Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx)

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Upcoming offerings

Overview

Key tools and concepts

Target audience and prerequisites

Course objectives

References