IMF Global Financial Stability Report -- Financial Stress and Deleveraging: Macro-Financial Implications and Policy -- October 2008 -- Contents
Global Financial Stability Report, October 7, 2008
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report -- Financial Stress and Deleveraging: Macro-Financial Implications and Policy -- October 2008 -- Contents
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 7, 2008
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
Publication metadata and access
- Title: Financial Stress and Deleveraging Macro-Financial Implications and Policy
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
- Date: October 2008
- Full text availability: "View the Full Text of the GFSR (use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader)."
- Ancillary items listed for the report:
- Preface (208KB pdf file)
- Executive Summary (241KB pdf file)
- Glossary (270KB pdf file)
- Statistical Appendix (1,331KB pdf file)
Core chapters and major analytical themes
- Chapter I. Assessing Risks to Global Financial Stability
- Full Text | Boxes | Figures | Tables
- Major topics:
- Global Financial Stability Map
- The Default Cycle
- Financial System Deleveraging
- Systemic Implications
- Emerging Market Resilience Is Being Tested
- Financial Stability Policies
- Annexes:
- Annex 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Construction and Methodology
- Annex 1.2. Financial Investment in Commodities Markets
- Annex 1.3. Loss Estimates on U.S. Credit Instruments
- Annex 1.4. Factors Infl uencing the Pace and Level of Bank Capital Rebuilding
- References
- Chapter II. Stress in Bank Funding Markets and Implications for Monetary Policy
- Full Text | Boxes | Figures
- Major topics:
- The Microstructure of Bank Funding Markets
- The Causes of Elevated Interbank Spreads
- Implications for the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy
- Policy Recommendations
- Annexes:
- Annex 2.1. Empirical Framework: The Causes of High Interbank Spreads
- Annex 2.2. Empirical Framework: Monetary Transmission
- Chapter III. Fair Value Accounting and Procyclicality
- Full Text | Figures
- Major topics:
- Fair Value Accounting Through the Business Cycle
- Modeling Fair Value Accounting Through the Business Cycle Using Simulations
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
- Annex:
- Annex 3.1. Data and Modeling Assumptions
- Chapter IV. Spillovers to Emerging Equity Markets
- Full Text | Figures
- Major topics:
- Performance of Emerging Market Equity Markets
- Cross-Country Equity Price Correlations
- Determinants of Emerging Market Equity Prices
- Spillovers and their Impact
- The Role of Local Institutional Investors
- Key Results and Conclusions
- Annexes:
- Annex 4.1. Panel Estimation Specification and Results
- Annex 4.2. Vector Autoregression Model Results
- Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair
Policy recommendations and analytical focus areas (as organized in contents)
- Financial Stability Policies (Chapter I)
- Policy Recommendations on bank funding and monetary transmission (Chapter II)
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations on fair value accounting and procyclicality (Chapter III)
Empirical tools, models, and supporting analyses listed
- Global Financial Stability Map (construction and methodology)
- Loss estimates and simulations:
- Loss Estimates on U.S. Credit Instruments (Annex 1.3)
- Simulations of fair value applications and business cycle interactions (Chapter III figures)
- Empirical frameworks and model types:
- Empirical Frameworks for interbank spreads and monetary transmission (Annexes 2.1, 2.2)
- Panel estimation and Vector Autoregression (Chapter IV annexes)
- Structural Vector Autoregression, Vector Error Correction Mechanisms, Dynamic VECM (listed in Tables/Figures)
- Specific simulation and decomposition figures (examples from contents):
- Simulation of Full Fair Value
- Decomposition of Spread between Three-Month U.S. Dollar LIBOR and Overnight Index Swaps
- Structured VAR Model: Variance Decomposition of LIBOR/Euribor Minus Overnight Index Swap (OIS) Spread
Boxes and targeted case studies (selected by title)
- Chapter I boxes include:
- 1.1 Recent Financial Market Developments
- 1.2 Measuring Capital Adequacy
- 1.3 Global Bank Writedowns and Capital Raising
- 1.4 U.S. Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Housing Reform Developments
- 1.5 Impact of Credit Market Turmoil on Hedge Funds
- 1.6 Forecasting Loan Charge-Off Rates
- Chapter II boxes include:
- 2.1 Pricing and Hedging Role of Interbank Deposit-Related Derivatives
- 2.2 Is the LIBOR Fix Broken?
- 2.3 The Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility
- 2.4 Breakdown of the Financial Sector for Monetary Transmission Analysis
- Chapter III boxes include:
- 3.1 Off-Balance Sheet Entities and Procyclicality
- 3.2 Disclosures Recommended by the Financial Stability Forum
- 3.3 Dealing with Procyclicality in the Basel II Framework
- 3.4 Options Surrounding the Application of Fair Value Accounting to Mitigate Procyclicality
- Chapter IV boxes include:
- 4.1 Is There a Stock Market Wealth Effect in Emerging Markets?
- 4.2 The Role of Emerging Market Institutional Investors in Emerging Market Equities
Key tables and figures indexed (selection of labeled items)
- Tables addressing loss and deleveraging estimates:
- Estimates of Financial Sector Potential Writedowns
- Estimates of Potential Losses on Loans
- Sensitivity of Deleveraging to Public Sector Support
- Deleveraging Illustration: Key Assumptions
- Figures and charts covering systemic indicators and market measures (selected labels as listed):
- Heat Map: Developments in Systemic Asset Classes
- Systemic Bank Default Risk
- Asset Price Volatility and Funding and Market Liquidity
- U.S. Loan Charge-Off Rates
- U.S. Households' Balance Sheet: Net Worth
- Prices of U.S. Mortgage-Related Securities
- AA Rated Bank Bond Index Spreads Relative to Government Bonds
- Cross-Currency Swaps with U.S. Dollar
- Spread Between Three-Month Uncollateralized Interbank Rates and Overnight Index Swaps
- Joint Probability of Distress: Selected Financial Institutions Participating in Interbank Panels
- Simulation of Full Fair Value: Changes in Funding Conditions and Financial Market Distress
- Equity Price Response to Global Excess Liquidity Increase
- Credit Default Swap Spreads on Selected Emerging Market Banks, January 2007-Early October 2008
Statistical Appendix structure and contents
- Key Financial Centers: Figures | Tables (multiple country and market indicators)
- Emerging Markets: Figures | Tables (volatility measures, debt cross-correlation measures, external financing by instrument)
- Financial Soundness Indicators: Tables (bank regulatory capital, capital to assets, nonperforming loans, provisions, return on assets, return on equity)
- Detailed lists of statistical tables numbered and titled in the contents (examples: 1–27 and 1.–27. listings for various data series and country/market breakdowns)
Content compiled from the report "IMF Global Financial Stability Report -- Financial Stress and Deleveraging: Macro-Financial Implications and Policy -- October 2008 — Contents."
Content in this bundle
- Box 1.1. Recent Financial Market Developments — Dataset overview
- Box 1.1. Recent Financial Market Developments — U.S. Money Market Fund Assets under Management
- Box 1.3. Global Bank Writedowns and Capital-Raising
- Box 1.3. Global Bank Writedowns and Capital-Raising
- Box 1.3. Global Bank Writedowns and Capital-Raising
- Box 1.4. U.S. Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Housing Reform Developments
- Box 1.4. U.S. Government-Sponsored Enterperises and Housing Reform Developments
- Box 1.4. U.S. Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Housing Reform Developments
- Box 1.5. Impact of Credit Market Turmoil on Hedge Funds
- Box 1.5. Impact of Credit Market Turmoil on Hedge Funds
- Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map
- Figure 1.10. U.S. Residential Real Estate: Loan charge-Off Rates
- Figure 1.11. U.S. Consumer Loans: Charge-Off Rates
- Figure 1.12. Macroeconomic and Corporate Indicaotrs and Default Rates
- Figure 1.13. Comparison of Financial Crises
- Figure 1.14. Financial Sector Losses
- Figure 1.15. Ratio of Household Debt to Gross Disposable Income
- Figure 1.16. U.K. Mortgage Foreclosures
- Figure 1.17. Net Acquisition of Financial Assets by U.S. Financial Firms
- Figure 1.18. Bank Ratios
- Figure 1.19. U.S. Banks' Price-to-Book Ratios and Risk Exposures
- Figure 1.2. Heat Map: Developments in Systemic Asset Classes
- Figure 1.20. European Banks' Price-to-Book Ratios and European Real Estate Prices
- Figure 1.21. U.K. Banks' Price-to-Book Values
- Figure 1.22. AA Rated Bank Bond Index Spreads Relative to Government Bonds
- Figure 1.23. European Banks' Cross-Border Liabilities, end-2007
- Figure 1.24. Net Cross-Border U.S. Dollar Claims of European Banks
- Figure 1.25. Cross-Currency Swaps with U.S. Dollar
- Figure 1.26. Private Sector Credit Growth
- Figure 1.27. Euro Area Financial Institution Lending for Home Purchases
- Figure 1.28. Market Capitalization and Equity Book Values of Select Financial Institutions
- Figure 1.20. Probability of Default Based on Equity Option Prices
- Figure 1.3. Systemic Bank Default Risk
- Figure 1.30. U.S. Equity Index Performance
- figure1_31
- Figure 1.32. Potential U.S. Commitments and Mortgage Markets
- Figure 1.33. Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads
- Figure 1.34. Net Foreign Equity Investment in Emerging Economies
- Figure 1.35. Emerging Market External and U.S. High-Grade Corporate Spreads
- Dataset overview
- Figure1 37
- figure1_38
- Figure 1..34. Break-Even Inflation Rates
- Figure 1.4. Asset Price Volatility and Funding and Market Liquidity
- Figure 1.40. Baltic States: Real Bank Loan Growth to Nonfinancial Private Sector
- figure1_41a — Dataset overview
- figure1_41b
- Figure 1.41. Global Financial Stability Map: Monetary and Financial Conditions
- figure1_41d — Custodial Reserve Holdings at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Figure 1.41. Global Financial Stability Map: Monetary and Financial Conditions
- figure1_42a
- Figure 1.42. Global Financial Stability Map: Risk Appetite
- Figure 1.42. Global Financial Stability Map: Risk Appetite
- Figure 1.42. Global Financial Stability Map: Risk Appetite
- figure1_43a
- Figure 1.43. Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks
- Figure1 43c
- figure1_43d: Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks
- Figure 1.43. Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks
- Figure 1.43. Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks
- Figure 1.44. Global Financial Stability Map: Emerging Market Risks
- Figure 1.44. Global Financial Stability Map: Emerging Market Risks
- Figure 1.44. Global Financial Stability Map: Emerging Market Risks
- figure1_44d
- figure1_44e
- figure1_45a
- Figure 1.45. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- figure1_45c — Moody's Speculative Grade Default Rates: Actual and 12-Month Forecast
- Figure 1.45. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- Figure 1.45. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- Figure 1.46. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.46. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.46. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.46. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.46. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.46. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.47. Commodity Futures Prices and Financial Positions
- Figure 1.47. Commodity Futures Prices and Financial Positions
- figure1_47c
- Figure 1.47. Commodity Futures Prices and Financial Positions
- Figure 1.47. Commodity Futures Prices and Financial Positions
- Figure 1.47. Commodity Futures Prices and Financial Positions
- Figure 1.5. Allocation to Global and Emerging Market Risk Assets
- Figure1_6 — Dataset overview
- Figure 1.7. U.S. Households' Balance Sheet: Net Worth
- Figure 1.8. U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies by Vintage Year
- Figure 1.9. Prices of U.S. Mortgage-Related Securities
- Table 1.1. Estimates of Financial Sector Potential Writedowns
- Table 1.10. Road to Recovery: Key Assumptions
- Table 1.2. Estimates of Potential Losses on Loans
- Table1 3
- Table 1.4. Sensitivity of Deleveraging to Public Sector Support
- Table 1.5. Macro and Financial Indicators in Selected Emerging Market Countries
- Table 1.7. Asset Class Characteristics
- Table 1.8. Test for Causality between Commodity Prices and Financial Positions
- Table 1.9. Comparison of Financial Sector Loss Estimates, October 2008
- boxfigure2_2a
- boxfigure2_2b
- Box Figure 2.2.C. ICAP NYFR and BBA LIBOR Spread
- Box Figure 2.3.A. Impact of Term Auction Facility
- BoxFigure 2.3.B. European Central Bank: U.S. Dollar Term Auction Facility
- Box Figure 2.4. United States: Breakdown of Financial Sector
- Figure 2.1. Unsecured Borrowing Transaction Volumes
- Figure 2.10. Dynamic Vector Error Correlation Mechanism
- Figure 2.11.Dynamic Vector Error Correlation Mechanism
- Figure 2.12. Summary Chart: Accuracy of Forecasts - U.S. Model, 1996-2008
- Fig 2.13. Summar Chart: Accuracy of Forecast - U.S. Model
- Figure 2.14. Summary Chart: Accuracy of Forecasts - Euro Area Model, 2006-08
- Figure 2.15. Decomposition of Spread Between Three-Month U.S. Dollar LIBOR and Overnight Index Swaps
- Figure2 2
- Figure2 3
- figure2_4
- Figure 2.5. Structured VAR Model: Variance Decomposition of LIBOR/Euribor Minus Overnight Index Swap
- Figure 2.6. Selected Countries: Size of Financial Assets
- Figure 2.7. United States: Structural Changes in Financial Sector Liabilities
- Figure 2.8. United States: Selected Interest Rate Spreads
- Figure 2.9. Euro Area: Selected Interest Rate Spreads
- Figure 3.1. Selected U.S.-Based Financial Institutions: Change in Level 1, 2, and 3 Assets
- Figure 3.2. Aggregate Fair Value Hierarchy, End-2007
- Figure 3.3. Simulation of Full Fair Value
- Figure3 4
- Figure 3.5. Simulation of Full Fair Value: International versus Retail-Oriented Banks
- Figure 3.6. Simulation of Partial Fair Value
- Figure 3.7. Simulation of Smoothing Techniques
- Figure 3.8. Yield Curves and Business Cycles
- Figure 3.9. Simulation of Full Fair Value with Upward Sloping Yield Curve
- boxfigure4_2a
- Box 4.2. Figure B. Emerging Market Economies: Total Assets Under Management of Mutual Funds
- Pension Fund Assets in Selected Countries, 2006
- Box 4.2. Figure D. Mutual Fund Assets in Selected Countries, 2007
- Figure 4.1. Selected Equity Market Indices
- Figure4 10
- Figure 4.11. Equity Price Response to Global Excess Liquidity
- Figure 4.12. Equity Price Response to Credit Risk Premium
- Figure 4.13. Equity Price Response to Market Risk Premium
- Figure 4.2. Emerging Market Economies: Composition of Capital Inflows
- Figure 4.3. Current Account Balances and Capital Flows from a Global Perspective
- Figure4 4
- Figure 4.5. Total Equity Market Returns
- Figure 4.6. Price/Earnings Ratios, July 31, 2008
- Figure 4.7. Total Foreign Holdings of Equity
- Figure 4.8. Emerging Markets Equity Indices and Foreign Investor Presence
- Figure4 9
- sa_figure1
- Figure 10. Flows into U.S.-Based Equity Funds
- Figure 11. United States: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 12. Europe: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 13. United States: Commercial Paper Market
- Figure 14. United States: Asset-Backed Securities
- Figure 15. Emerging Market Volatility Measures
- Figure 16. Emerging Market Debt Cross-Correlation Measures
- Dataset overview: Figure 2. Exchange Rates: Selected Major Industrial Countries
- Figure 3. United States: Yields on Corporate and Treasury Bonds
- Figure 4. Selected Spreads
- Figure 5. Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads
- Figure 6. Equity Markets: Price Indices
- Figure 7. Implied and Historical Volatility in Equity Markets
- Figure 8. Historical Volatility of Government Bond Yields and Bond Returns for Selected Countries
- Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios
- Table 1. Global Capital Flows: Inflows and Outflows
- Table 10. Equity Market Indices
- Table 11. Foreign Exchange Rates
- Table 12. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Total Returns Index
- Table 13. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads
- Table 14. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans
- Table 15. Emerging Market External Financing: Bond Issuance
- Table 16. Emerging Market External Finance: Equity Issuance
- Sa Table17
- Table 18. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios
- Table 19. Equity Valuation Measures: Price-to-Book Ratios
- Sa Table2
- Table 20. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios
- Table 21. Emerging Markets: Mutual Fund Flows
- Table 22. Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
- Table 23. Bank Capital to Assets
- Table 24. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans
- Table 25. Bank Provisions to Nonperforming Loans
- Table 26. Bank Return on Assets
- Table 27. Bank Return on Equity
- Table 3. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2007
- Sa Table4
- Sa Table5
- Sa Table6
- Table 7. United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets
- Table 8. Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets1
- Table 9. Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets
- تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي: ملخص واف -- أكتوبر 2008
- 2008年10月《全球金融稳定报告》- 金融压力和去杠杆化, 宏观金融影响和政策
- 2008年10月期《全球金融稳定报告》概要
- Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde : Résumé analytique -- Octobre 2008
- 国際金融安定性報告書(GFSR) 2008年10月: 要旨
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- Selected Three-Month Spreads
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- Figure 2.2. Spread Between Three-Month Uncollateralized Interbank Rates and Overnight Index Swaps
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- Figure 2.4. Three-Month Forex Swap Spreads
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- Figure 2.9. Euro Area: Selected Interest Rate Spreads
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- Figure 4.7. Total Foreign Holdings of Equity
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- Global Financial Stability Report -- Annex: Summing up by the Acting Chair -- October 2008
- Chapter 1: — Assessing Risks to Global Financial Stability
- chapter 2 — StreSS In Bank FundIng MarketS and IMplIcatIonS For Monetary polIcy
- chaPter 3 Fair Value accounting and Procyclicality
- Chapter 4 SpilloverS to emerging equity marketS
- Glossary
- Preface
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- _summarypdf
- _textpdf — Global Financial Stability Report
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- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности: аналитическое резюме -- Октябрь 2008 года
- Informe sobre la Estabilidad Financiera Mundial, Octubre 2008 - Resumen Ejecutivo
References
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