Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices
World Economic Outlook
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Global outlook and headline projections
- The World Economic Outlook projects global growth to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and rebound to 3.4 percent in 2027.
- Global headline inflation is projected to rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 percent in 2027.
- The estimates and projections in Chapter 1 and the Online Statistical Appendix are based on statistical information available through October 1, 2026, and may not always reflect the latest published data.
- Energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain are identified as facing the most difficult outlook.
Risks, scenarios, and drivers
- Downside risks are emphasized, including:
- Further escalation in conflicts.
- A reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI).
- Renewed trade tensions.
- Fiscal vulnerabilities.
- Upside possibilities noted include:
- Stronger momentum in AI investment.
- Productivity gains from AI.
- A sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions.
Fiscal policy, price measures, and corporate taxation
- Fiscal space needs to be urgently rebuilt.
- During cost-of-living crises, the World Economic Outlook finds that governments should preserve price signals and rely primarily on temporary, targeted income support for the most vulnerable.
- Measures that suppress prices are found to be much more costly: price-suppressing measures can require 3 to 22 times more fiscal resources than targeted, temporary transfers.
- Chapter 3 finds that the global effects of corporate income tax policy changes depend on how they are financed:
- Debt-financed tax cuts support domestic activity but can generate negative spillovers abroad in the short term.
- Over time, spillovers can be positive, thanks to cross-border knowledge transfer.
- Lower revenues can constrain public investment domestically, particularly in emerging market and developing economies.
- Stronger anti-avoidance frameworks help mitigate these trade-offs.
- Policymakers are urged to rebuild fiscal space, preserve monetary and financial stability, lift potential growth, and deepen cooperation.
Chapter highlights
- Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
- Emphasizes that the global economy is resilient but resilience is increasingly uneven and costly.
- Reiterates the projection that global growth slows to 3.1 percent in 2026 before rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, and inflation rises to 4.7 percent before easing to 4.1 percent in 2027.
- Stresses that risks are tilted to the downside, including from fiscal vulnerabilities.
- Chapter 2: Navigating a Shock-Prone World: Lessons from Cost-of-Living Crises
- Analyzes episodes marked by sharp increases in the price of basic necessities, falling purchasing power, persistently higher inflation and inflation expectations, and worsening inequality and poverty.
- Finds that targeted, temporary transfers offer the most effective and cost-efficient protection while preserving fiscal space and allowing prices to adjust.
- Chapter 3: Intangible Yet Real: Spillovers from Corporate Income Taxation
- Examines how the globalization of production, the rise of multinational corporations, and the growing importance of intangible assets affect corporate income taxation.
- Concludes that profits and economic activity are moving back into alignment as anti-avoidance rules weaken incentives for profit shifting and real investment becomes more sensitive to tax rate differences.
Key dates and notes
- The World Economic Outlook is dated October 2026.
- Specific chapter and related materials were released on the following dates:
- "Navigating a Shock-Prone World: Lessons from Cost-of-Living Crises" — October 5, 2026 (past).
- "Intangible Yet Real: Spillovers from Corporate Income Taxation" — October 2, 2026 (past).
- "World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Key Facts" — October 9, 2026 (past).
- Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, October 13, 2026 (today).
Content in this bundle
- Read Chapter 1
- Online Annex
- Read Chapter 2
- Online Annexes
- Read Chapter 3
- Online Annexes
- Commodity Special Feature
- Chapter 1 Data (XLSX)
- Chapter 2 Data (XLSX)
- Chapter 3 Data (XLSX)
- Executive Summary
- World Economic Outlook, October 2026; Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices; October 13, 2026
- Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications
- Online Statistical Appendix Tables A
- Supplemental Global Economic Indicators
- World Economic Outlook, October 2026; Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices; October 13, 2026
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