Transcript of a Press Conference by Michael Mussa on the Interim Assessment of the World Economic Outlook and International Capital Markets

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Other issues of the World Economic Outlook

WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present

Research at the IMF

World Economic Outlook
World Economic Outlook and
International Capital Markets

Interim Assessment
December 1998

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1998 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Assumptions and Conventions
Chapter I.  
146k pdf file   
Containing the Risks to the World Economy
The Crisis Intensifies up to Early October and Then Eases
Implications for the World Economic Outlook and Remaining
Policy Requirements
Systemic Issues Arising from Recent Financial Market
  1.1.Brazil's Financial Assistance Package and Adjustment Program
  1.2.Recent Developments in the Japanese Financial System
  1.1.Revisions to World Growth Projections
  1.1.World Industrial Production
  1.2.Financing Conditions for Emerging Markets
Chapter II.  
196k pdf file  
The Crisis in Emerging Markets
Russia's Financial Crisis
Deleveraging and the Terms and Conditions of Market Access
Spillover Effects Among Emerging Markets: The Extent of
  2.1.Malaysia's Capital Controls
  2.2.Hong Kong's Intervention in the Equity Spot and Futures Markets
  2.1.Sovereign Credit Ratings of Emerging Market Borrowers
  2.2.Russia in International Capital Markets
  2.3.Emerging Markets' Debt Trading Volume
  2.4.Emerging Market Bond Issues, Equity Issues, and Loan Commitments
  2.1.Emerging Markets: Maturing Eurobonds
  2.2.Russia: Federal Government Domestic and External Debt
  2.3.Secondary Market Bond Spreads and Equity Market Returns
  2.4.Secondary Market Yield Spreads on U.S. Dollar-Denominated Eurobonds by Selected Emerging Markets
  2.5.Stock Market Total Return Indices
  2.6.Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
  2.7.Brazil: Domestic Debt and Foreign Exchange Flows
  2.8.Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Reserves
Chapter III.  
306k pdf file  
Turbulence in Mature Financial Markets
Recent Developments
Significance for Economic Activity
Systemic Aspects of Mature Market Turbulence
Shortcomings in Risk Management and Implications for
   Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  3.1.Recent Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate Movements
  3.2.What Is the Implied Future Earnings Growth Rate that Would Justify Current Equity Prices in the United States?
  3.4.The Near Collapse and Rescue of Long-Term Capital Management
  3.5.Risk Management: Progress and Problems
  3.6.Supervisory Reforms Relating to Risk Management
  3.1.Claims of Banks in BIS-Reporting Countries on Selected Emerging Markets as of June 1998
  3.1.Major Industrial Countries: Stock Market Price Indices
  3.2.Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
  3.3.United States: Yields on Corporate and Treasury Bonds
  3.4.United States: Corporate Bond Market
  3.5.United States: Developments in Fixed-Income Securities Markets
  3.6.Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
  3.7.Selected Countries: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
  3.8.United States: Equity Market Performance
Chapter IV.  
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Implications for the World Economy: Revisions and Risks to the Projections
Key Revisions to the Projections
Japan and Emerging Market Economies in Asia: When Will
   the Recessions End?
Effects of the Russian Crisis on the Domestic Economy and
   Other Countries in Transition
Brazil and Other Emerging Market Economies: Effects of the
   Global Crisis
North America and Europe: To What Extent Is Growth
Global Financial Flows and Current Account Balances
Alternative Scenario
  4.1.Is China's Growth Overstated?
  4.1.Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  4.2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
  4.3.Selected Advanced Economies and Regions: Importance of Merchandise Export Markets in 1996
  4.4.Selected Regions: Importance of Merchandise Export Markets in 1996
  4.5.Selected Asian Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  4.6.Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  4.7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  4.8.Selected Latin American Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  4.9.Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Selected Newly Industrialized Asian Economies: Net Capital Flows
 4.10.Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
 4.11.Alternative Scenario: Simulation Results
  4.1.Prices of Crude Petroleum and Nonfuel Commodities
  4.2.Major Industrial Countries: Indices of Monetary Conditions
  4.3.Selected European Countries, Japan, and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
  4.4.Selected Economies: Export Market Growth
  4.5.Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
  4.6.United States: Private, Public, and Foreign Net Saving
  4.7.Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand
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Emerging Market Banking Systems
Latin America
Eastern Europe and Russia
  A1.Asia: Estimated Costs of Bank Restructuring
  Statistical Appendix
List of Tables
World Economic Outlook
and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook,
Selected Topics, 1992–98