Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty
Fiscal Monitor, April 2025
Source details
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- Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 23, 2025
Overview
- Publication title: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty
- Publication date: April 2025
- Central message: Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook; global public debt projections have been revised upwards and multiple risks are intensifying fiscal pressures.
Fiscal projections and risks
- Global public debt projections: revised upwards (no numerical value provided on the page).
- Intensifying risks listed:
- tariffs
- uncertainty and market volatility
- increased defense spending
- challenging foreign aid
- Policy implication: Countries must implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks to reduce debt and build buffers against heightened uncertainty.
Policy recommendations and fiscal priorities
- Implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks.
- Reduce public debt and build fiscal buffers to withstand heightened uncertainty.
- Reform major expenditure programs to lower fiscal vulnerabilities and support growth, specifically:
- energy subsidies
- pensions
- Advance reforms with attention to stakeholder acceptance through:
- strategic design
- effective communication
- robust safety nets
- trust in governance
Chapter 2 — Public sentiment and reform acceptability
- Focus: Building public support for reforms to energy subsidies and public pensions, which are crucial for reducing fiscal vulnerabilities and fostering inclusive growth.
- Key insights:
- Energy subsidy reforms enhance efficiency and reduce inequality.
- Pension reforms ensure sustainability and alleviate old-age poverty.
- Resistance to reforms arises because costs are tangible while benefits are diffuse.
- A real-time measure of reform acceptability is introduced using large language models to quantify stakeholder sentiment.
- Findings indicate that careful design, timing, accompanying measures, and governance improve stakeholder sentiment and help advance ambitious and durable reforms.
- Redistribution policies and strategic communications can mitigate resistance.
Data and methodological note
- The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through April 14, 2025, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases.
- For the date of the last data update for each economy, refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database.
Source: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (April 2025), International Monetary Fund.
Content in this bundle
- Dataset overview
- CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy
- Chapter 1 Online Annex
- ch2
- Chapter 2 Online Annex
- Executive Summary
- Foreword
- Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty
- Preface
- Full Report