IMF Global Financial Stability Report: October 2016: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era

Global Financial Stability Report, October 31, 2016

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IMF Global Financial Stability Report: October 2016: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era

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• Published: October 31, 2016
• Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Executive summary and overarching assessment

• Short-term risks to global financial stability have abated since April 2016, but medium-term risks continue to build.
• Financial institutions in advanced economies face cyclical and structural challenges and need to adapt to low growth and low interest rates, and to an evolving market and regulatory environment.
• Weak profitability could erode banks’ buffers over time and undermine their ability to support growth; a cyclical recovery will not resolve the problem of low profitability.
• The solvency of many life insurance companies and pension funds is threatened by a prolonged period of low interest rates.
• Corporate leverage in emerging market economies remains elevated in some countries, but the current favorable external environment presents an opportunity for overly indebted firms to restructure their balance sheets.
• The political climate is unsettled in many countries; a lack of income growth and a rise in inequality have opened the door for populist, inward-looking policies, making it harder to tackle legacy problems and exposing economies and markets to shocks.
• The report finds that fears of a decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy due to the rise of nonbank financing are unfounded; transmission of monetary policy is, if anything, stronger in economies with larger nonbank financial sectors.
• Improvements in corporate governance and investor protection in emerging market economies over the past two decades have bolstered financial system resilience and strengthen the case for further reform.
• A potent and more balanced policy mix is needed to deliver a stronger path for growth and financial stability and avoid slipping into financial and economic stagnation.

Chapter 1 — Financial Stability Challenges in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era

• Main finding: short-term risks have abated since April 2016, but medium-term risks continue to build.
• Advanced-economy banks:
  • Face cyclical and structural challenges from low growth and low interest rates and an evolving market and regulatory environment.
  • Weak profitability could erode buffers and undermine banks’ ability to support growth.
  • A cyclical recovery alone will not resolve low profitability—more deep-rooted reforms and systemic management are needed, especially for European banks.
• Insurance companies and pension funds:
  • Solvency of many life insurance companies and pension funds is threatened by prolonged low interest rates.
• Emerging market economies:
  • Corporate leverage remains elevated in some countries.
  • Current favorable external environment presents an opportunity for overly indebted firms to restructure balance sheets.
• Political and policy environment:
  • Rising inequality and weak income growth have increased risks of populist, inward-looking policies, complicating resolution of legacy problems and increasing exposure to shocks.
• Policy implication: adopt a more balanced and potent policy mix to strengthen growth and financial stability and avoid financial/economic stagnation.

Chapter 2 — Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance

• Focus: how nonbank financial institutions shape the transmission of monetary policy.
• Key findings:
  • Nonbanks, if anything, have strengthened the transmission of monetary policy.
  • Nonbanks may amplify monetary policy effects on real activity because their incentives to take risks are particularly sensitive to changes in monetary policy.
  • Banks still matter for transmission because even large firms have limited ability to move away from bank loans into bond financing after a monetary contraction.
• Policy guidance:
  • Policymakers must adapt the conduct of monetary policy to changes in the composition of financial systems.
  • Be mindful of implications of monetary policy on financial stability.
  • Continue to enhance the provision of data on nonbank financial intermediaries.

Chapter 3 — Corporate Governance, Investor Protection, and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets

• Focus: links between corporate governance, investor protection, and financial stability across emerging market economies.
• Main findings:
  • Corporate governance and investor protection have generally improved in emerging market economies over the past two decades.
  • Stronger corporate governance and investor protection frameworks enhance resilience to global financial shocks.
  • Improvements foster deeper and more liquid capital markets, making them better able to absorb shocks.
  • Corporate governance improvements enhance stock market efficiency, reducing sensitivity to external shocks and crash risk.
  • Emerging market economies with better governance and investor protections generally have stronger corporate balance sheets.
• Policy recommendations:
  • Bolster rights of outside investors, especially minority shareholders.
  • Bring disclosure requirements fully in line with international best practice.
  • Promote greater board independence.
  • These reforms are likely to yield financial stability benefits and strengthen systemic resilience.

Analytical tools, scenarios, and empirical content (high-level inventory)

• Chapter 1 includes a range of figures and scenarios such as:
  • Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions; Brexit’s Impact on Financial Markets; Bank Profitability decompositions; Pension Funding Shortfalls; Scenarios for Deleveraging in Emerging Market Firms; Financial Stagnation and Protectionism Scenario.
• Chapter 2 includes analyses and figures on:
  • Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy; Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission; Empirical Evidence on the Transmission of Monetary Policy; Risk Taking by Mutual Funds; Bond Finance around the World.
• Chapter 3 includes firm- and country-level governance indices and empirical tests on:
  • Corporate Governance and Equity Returns; Crash Risk; Corporate Governance and Selected Balance Sheet Indicators; Firm-Level Governance and Solvency.

Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report: October 2016: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era.

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• 国際金融安定性報告書 2016年10月: 第2章,第3章の要旨
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• 101699 Annex Figure 2.1.1
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• Assumptions and Conventions
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• Chapter 1: Financial Stability Challenges in A Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era
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  • Chapter 1: Financial Stability Challenges in A Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era (PDF)
• Chapter 2: Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance
  • Chapter 2: Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance (Markdown version)
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• Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance; GFSR Global Financial Stability Report 2016
  • Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance; GFSR Global Financial Stability Report 2016 (Markdown version)
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• Imf Executive Board Discussion Summary
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• Executive Summary
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• Further Information and Data
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• Preface
  • Preface (Markdown version)
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• Summary
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• Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance
  • Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance (Markdown version)
  • Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance (PDF)
• Corporate Governance, Investor Protection, and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets
  • Corporate Governance, Investor Protection, and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets (Markdown version)
  • Corporate Governance, Investor Protection, and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets (PDF)
• Global Financial Stability Report: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era
  • Global Financial Stability Report: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era (Markdown version)
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• РЕЗЮМЕ
  • РЕЗЮМЕ (Markdown version)
  • РЕЗЮМЕ (PDF)
• АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ РЕЗЮМЕ
  • АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ РЕЗЮМЕ (Markdown version)
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• _sums
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• Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial: Resumen Ejecutivo; Octubre de 2016
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  • Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial: Resumen Ejecutivo; Octubre de 2016 (PDF)
• boxfigure2_1
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• boxfigure2_2
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• Figure 1.1.1. Brexit Implications for the United Kingdom
  • Figure 1.1.1. Brexit Implications for the United Kingdom (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1.1. Brexit Implications for the United Kingdom (CSV)
• boxfigure1_1_2
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• Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions
  • Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.10. Developed and Emerging Economy Banks: Capital and Liquidity Indicators
  • Figure 1.10. Developed and Emerging Economy Banks: Capital and Liquidity Indicators (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Developed and Emerging Economy Banks: Capital and Liquidity Indicators (CSV)
• Figure 1.11. Price-to-Book and Return on Equity Decomposition, 2006-15
  • Figure 1.11. Price-to-Book and Return on Equity Decomposition, 2006-15 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.11. Price-to-Book and Return on Equity Decomposition, 2006-15 (CSV)
• Figure 1.12. Advanced Economies: Trends in Bank Profitability
  • Figure 1.12. Advanced Economies: Trends in Bank Profitability (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.12. Advanced Economies: Trends in Bank Profitability (CSV)
• Figure1 13
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• Figure1 15
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• Figure 1.16. European Banks� Elevated Cost of Funding
  • Figure 1.16. European Banks� Elevated Cost of Funding (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.16. European Banks� Elevated Cost of Funding (CSV)
• Figure 1.17 European Bank Profitability in a "Structural Reform" Scenario
  • Figure 1.17 European Bank Profitability in a "Structural Reform" Scenario (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.17 European Bank Profitability in a "Structural Reform" Scenario (CSV)
• Figure 1.18. Japanese Banks and Foreign Exchange Funding
  • Figure 1.18. Japanese Banks and Foreign Exchange Funding (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.18. Japanese Banks and Foreign Exchange Funding (CSV)
• Figure 1.19. Low Interest Rates and Insurance Companies
  • Figure 1.19. Low Interest Rates and Insurance Companies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.19. Low Interest Rates and Insurance Companies (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.20. U.S. Pension Fund Discount Rate
  • Figure 1.20. U.S. Pension Fund Discount Rate (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. U.S. Pension Fund Discount Rate (CSV)
• Figure 1.21. Pension Funding Shortfalls in the United States and the United Kingdom
  • Figure 1.21. Pension Funding Shortfalls in the United States and the United Kingdom (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.21. Pension Funding Shortfalls in the United States and the United Kingdom (CSV)
• Figure 1.22. Portfolio Flows to Emerging Market Economies and Asset Prices
  • Figure 1.22. Portfolio Flows to Emerging Market Economies and Asset Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. Portfolio Flows to Emerging Market Economies and Asset Prices (CSV)
• Figure 1.23. Corporate Borrowing Stabilized, but at a High Level
  • Figure 1.23. Corporate Borrowing Stabilized, but at a High Level (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.23. Corporate Borrowing Stabilized, but at a High Level (CSV)
• Figure 1.24. Scenarios for Deleveraging in Emerging Market Economy Firms
  • Figure 1.24. Scenarios for Deleveraging in Emerging Market Economy Firms (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.24. Scenarios for Deleveraging in Emerging Market Economy Firms (CSV)
• figure1_25
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• Figure 1.26. China: Credit Overhang and Shadow Credit
  • Figure 1.26. China: Credit Overhang and Shadow Credit (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. China: Credit Overhang and Shadow Credit (CSV)
• Figure 1.27. China: Bank Linkages to the Structured Investment Complex
  • Figure 1.27. China: Bank Linkages to the Structured Investment Complex (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.27. China: Bank Linkages to the Structured Investment Complex (CSV)
• Figure 1.3. Brexit�s Impact on Financial Markets
  • Figure 1.3. Brexit�s Impact on Financial Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.3. Brexit�s Impact on Financial Markets (CSV)
• Figure1 4
  • Figure1 4 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 4 (CSV)
• Figure 1.5. Policy Uncertainty
  • Figure 1.5. Policy Uncertainty (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.5. Policy Uncertainty (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Global Growth Momentum and Interest Rates
  • Figure 1.6. Global Growth Momentum and Interest Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Global Growth Momentum and Interest Rates (CSV)
• Figure 1.7. Bond Yields and Term Premiums in Advanced Economies
  • Figure 1.7. Bond Yields and Term Premiums in Advanced Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.7. Bond Yields and Term Premiums in Advanced Economies (CSV)
• Figure 1.8. Drivers of Government Bond Yields
  • Figure 1.8. Drivers of Government Bond Yields (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.8. Drivers of Government Bond Yields (CSV)
• Figure 1.9. Effects on Credit Growth of Shocks to Equity Prices
  • Figure 1.9. Effects on Credit Growth of Shocks to Equity Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.9. Effects on Credit Growth of Shocks to Equity Prices (CSV)
• Annex Figure 2.1.1. Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy�Robustness
  • Annex Figure 2.1.1. Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy�Robustness (Markdown version)
  • Annex Figure 2.1.1. Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy�Robustness (CSV)
• Annex Figure 2.2.1. Summary Statistics
  • Annex Figure 2.2.1. Summary Statistics (Markdown version)
  • Annex Figure 2.2.1. Summary Statistics (CSV)
• Dataset overview
  • Dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • Dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 2.10. Bank Regulation and the Transmission of Monetary Policy through Banks and Nonbanks
  • Figure 2.10. Bank Regulation and the Transmission of Monetary Policy through Banks and Nonbanks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.10. Bank Regulation and the Transmission of Monetary Policy through Banks and Nonbanks (CSV)
• Figure 2.11. Risk Taking by Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy
  • Figure 2.11. Risk Taking by Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.11. Risk Taking by Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy (CSV)
• Figure 2.12. Bond Finance around the World
  • Figure 2.12. Bond Finance around the World (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.12. Bond Finance around the World (CSV)
• Figure 2.13. Bond Financing and Monetary Policy
  • Figure 2.13. Bond Financing and Monetary Policy (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.13. Bond Financing and Monetary Policy (CSV)
• Figure 2.2. Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy
  • Figure 2.2. Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.2. Trends in the Transmission of Monetary Policy (CSV)
• Figure 2.4. Fair-Value Assets by Sector
  • Figure 2.4. Fair-Value Assets by Sector (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Fair-Value Assets by Sector (CSV)
• Figure 2.5. Value at Risk in Risk Management by Asset Class and Year
  • Figure 2.5. Value at Risk in Risk Management by Asset Class and Year (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.5. Value at Risk in Risk Management by Asset Class and Year (CSV)
• Figure 2.6. Transmission of Monetary Policy and Size of Nonbank Financial Sector
  • Figure 2.6. Transmission of Monetary Policy and Size of Nonbank Financial Sector (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.6. Transmission of Monetary Policy and Size of Nonbank Financial Sector (CSV)
• Figure 2.7. Response to a Monetary Policy Shock
  • Figure 2.7. Response to a Monetary Policy Shock (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.7. Response to a Monetary Policy Shock (CSV)
• Figure 2.8. Risk Taking and Monetary Policy
  • Figure 2.8. Risk Taking and Monetary Policy (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.8. Risk Taking and Monetary Policy (CSV)
• Figure 2.9. Monetary Policy and Total Assets Owned by Financial Intermediaries
  • Figure 2.9. Monetary Policy and Total Assets Owned by Financial Intermediaries (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.9. Monetary Policy and Total Assets Owned by Financial Intermediaries (CSV)
• Figure 3.2.1. Selected Emerging Market Economies: State-Owned Enterprises
  • Figure 3.2.1. Selected Emerging Market Economies: State-Owned Enterprises (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.2.1. Selected Emerging Market Economies: State-Owned Enterprises (CSV)
• Figure 3.1. Corporate Governance and Equity Returns
  • Figure 3.1. Corporate Governance and Equity Returns (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.1. Corporate Governance and Equity Returns (CSV)
• Figure 3.10. Stock Return Comovement
  • Figure 3.10. Stock Return Comovement (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.10. Stock Return Comovement (CSV)
• Figure 3.11. Stock Return Comovement
  • Figure 3.11. Stock Return Comovement (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.11. Stock Return Comovement (CSV)
• figure3_12
  • figure3_12 (Markdown version)
  • figure3_12 (CSV)
• Figure3_13
  • Figure3_13 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3_13 (CSV)
• Figure 3.14. Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Equity Returns
  • Figure 3.14. Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Equity Returns (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.14. Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Equity Returns (CSV)
• Figure 3.15. Corporate Governance and Selected Balance Sheet Indicators
  • Figure 3.15. Corporate Governance and Selected Balance Sheet Indicators (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.15. Corporate Governance and Selected Balance Sheet Indicators (CSV)
• Figure 3.16. Firm-Level Governance and the Bond Market
  • Figure 3.16. Firm-Level Governance and the Bond Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.16. Firm-Level Governance and the Bond Market (CSV)
• Figure 3.17. Firm-Level Governance and Solvency
  • Figure 3.17. Firm-Level Governance and Solvency (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.17. Firm-Level Governance and Solvency (CSV)
• Figure 3.18. Country-Level and Firm-Level Governance and Short-Term Debt
  • Figure 3.18. Country-Level and Firm-Level Governance and Short-Term Debt (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.18. Country-Level and Firm-Level Governance and Short-Term Debt (CSV)
• Figure 3.2. Corporate Governance and Volatility of Stock Market Returns in Emerging Markets
  • Figure 3.2. Corporate Governance and Volatility of Stock Market Returns in Emerging Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.2. Corporate Governance and Volatility of Stock Market Returns in Emerging Markets (CSV)
• Figure 3.3. Ownership Structure and Closely Held Shares
  • Figure 3.3. Ownership Structure and Closely Held Shares (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.3. Ownership Structure and Closely Held Shares (CSV)
• Figure3 4
  • Figure3 4 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3 4 (CSV)
• Figure3 5
  • Figure3 5 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3 5 (CSV)
• Emerging Market Firm-Level Governance Index
  • Emerging Market Firm-Level Governance Index (Markdown version)
  • Emerging Market Firm-Level Governance Index (CSV)
• Figure3_7
  • Figure3_7 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3_7 (CSV)
• Figure3 8
  • Figure3 8 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3 8 (CSV)
• figure3_9
  • figure3_9 (Markdown version)
  • figure3_9 (CSV)

References

• Survey Story
• Survey Story
• Survey Story