Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and Central Asia; May 2015 Update
Middle East and Central Asia, May 5, 2015
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- Published: May 5, 2015
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Overview
- Prepared by the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) covering 31 member countries; analysis and projections draw primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through consultations with member countries.
- Covers Middle East and Central Asia (MENAP and CCA) regions with detailed treatment of oil exporters and importers, spillovers from Russia, and impacts of oil price declines.
MENAP — Key Findings
- Regional outlook: A modest recovery is expected to continue despite a slump in oil prices, regional conflicts, and post-Arab Spring transition uncertainties.
- Growth projections (Table 1):
- MENAP Oil Exporters: 2014 — 2.4; 2015 — 3.4
- GCC: 2014 — 3.6; 2015 — 1.2
- Non-GCC Oil Importers: 2014 — 1.0; 2015 — 4.0
- MENAP Oil Importers aggregate growth: 2014 — 3.0; 2015 — 4.0
- Inflation and unemployment:
- Inflation in oil exporters projected to remain broadly unchanged in 2015; GCC inflation expected to decline by ½ pp to just above 2 percent.
- Unemployment across the region remains high, especially among youth; growth rates are insufficient to materially reduce unemployment.
MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries — Findings and Projections
- Oil price trajectory and assumptions:
- Between July 2014 and April 2015, oil prices dropped by 50 percent.
- Expected to be $58 per barrel in 2015 and $74 per barrel by 2020.
- Market expectations revised down by almost 20 percent since last October (Figure 1 referenced).
- Growth and fiscal impact:
- Growth in MENAP oil exporters: 2014 — 2.4 percent; projected unchanged in 2015; projected rise to 3½ percent in 2016.
- GCC 2015 growth forecast: 3.4 percent (revised downward by 1 pp since last October); Saudi Arabia 2015 forecast: 3 percent (down 1½ pp, half due to rebasing).
- Outside the GCC 2015 growth revised down by 2 pp to just above 1 percent.
- External and fiscal balances:
- Fall in anticipated oil export earnings in 2015: $287 billion (21 percent of GDP) in the GCC; $90 billion (11 percent of GDP) in non-GCC countries.
- MENAP oil exporters' current account projected to turn into a deficit of $22 billion (1 percent of GDP) in 2015.
- GCC combined budget surplus for 2014: $76 billion (4½ percent of GDP) expected to turn into deficit of $113 billion (8 percent of GDP) in 2015; narrow to 1 percent of GDP over medium term.
- Non-GCC fiscal deficit 2014: 4¾ percent of GDP, expected to widen to 9 percent of GDP in 2015, stabilizing at 2½ percent of GDP in medium term.
- Fiscal breakeven and buffers:
- Most countries cannot balance budgets when oil prices approach $60 per barrel (Figure 4 referenced).
- Non-oil fiscal balances expected to improve by 2½ pp of non-oil GDP in 2015 in several countries (Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Libya).
- Outside GCC, non-oil balances expected to improve by 2¾ pp of non-oil GDP in 2015, a revision of 1½ pp since last October.
- Announced fiscal measures (as of end-March 2015) — selected items:
- Bahrain: increase in natural gas prices for industrial users (+11%) and employee medical insurance fees.
- Kuwait: 2015/16 budget projects an 18% cut in public spending; capital spending shielded.
- Oman: 2015 budget includes reduction in defense spending; capital spending shielded.
- Qatar: No major announced policy response; restraining current expenditures.
- Saudi Arabia: large fiscal spending package worth around 4 percent of GDP announced in Feb 2015.
- UAE: No major announced policy response; gradual fiscal consolidation continued.
- Algeria: public sector hiring freeze announced.
- Iran: 2015/16 budget aims to limit drop in oil revenue by (i) increasing share of oil exports that goes to the budget, (ii) depreciating the official exchange rate (by 10%).
- Iraq: 2015 budget includes increases in non-oil taxes and aims to contain spending.
- Libya: No major policy response announced.
- Yemen: Large decline in energy subsidies planned for 2015H1; Increase in Social Welfare Fund transfers to poor by 50% (Dec 2014).
- Opportunities for fiscal reform:
- Growth-friendly consolidation: limit spending overruns, slow public wage bill growth, ensure productivity of capital spending.
- Reduce generalized energy subsidies and increase targeted social subsidies.
- Improve efficiency, oversight, and transparency of capital expenditure; improve tax administration and non-oil revenue collection.
- Financial sector:
- GCC banks expected to remain sound due to strong initial positions and continuing government infrastructure investment; liquidity could tighten and NPLs could rise.
- Non-GCC banks more vulnerable: Iran exhibiting systemwide stress and high NPLs; Yemen large government exposures; Iraq pressure on weak banking system.
- Diversification imperative:
- Need to move away from oil-driven growth models relying on subsidies and public employment.
- Policy focus: incentives for private entrepreneurship in tradable goods, better education–skills match, increased private employment of nationals.
MENAP Oil-Importing Countries — Findings and Projections
- Growth recovery:
- Economic activity slow after 2011 downturn; 2014 growth: 3 percent; projected to strengthen by 1 pp to 4 percent in 2015.
- Support from gradual euro area recovery, improved domestic confidence, and more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.
- Lower oil prices help mainly via improved fiscal/quasi-fiscal positions and external vulnerabilities rather than direct growth.
- Inflation and external effects:
- Inflation set to decline sharply in 2015 by 2½ pp to 7 percent, largely due to lower food prices and negative output gaps.
- Net external gains from lower oil prices estimated at $16 billion (1½ percent of GDP) for 2015.
- International reserves expected to improve by ¾ months of imports in 2015.
- Public debt projections for 2015 lowered by 2 pp of GDP from last October REO to 75 percent of GDP.
- Fiscal consolidation and revenue measures:
- Fiscal deficits declined by 1½ percentage points to just below 8 percent of GDP in 2014.
- Continued consolidation in 2015: fiscal deficits expected to decline by another 1 percentage point of GDP to 7 percent of GDP.
- Emphasis on revenue measures: eliminating exemptions, addressing loopholes, strengthening administration, introducing income tax reforms (Jordan) and a VAT (Egypt).
- Some countries (Lebanon, Pakistan) raised taxes on fuel products.
- Savings from subsidy reforms estimated at ½ percent of GDP in 2015.
- Banking sector:
- Banks generally well-capitalized, profitable, and liquid; high concentration of bank loans to government and state-owned enterprises presents stability risks; high NPLs broadly stabilized in many cases.
- Policy guidance:
- Use gains from lower oil prices to strengthen buffers and reduce public debt; remove inefficient energy subsidies and introduce automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms where appropriate.
- In countries with strong buffers, use windfalls and subsidy-savings to support growth-enhancing spending, avoiding irreversible spending commitments such as sustained increases in public sector wages.
- Rising international reserves and declining inflation create favorable conditions for increasing exchange rate flexibility and easing monetary policy, but prudence needed when inflation remains elevated.
Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Key Findings
- Growth outlook and shocks:
- Economic activity in CCA decelerated in 2014: growth declined by 1¼ pp to 5¼ percent.
- With sharp oil price declines and expected contraction of Russia’s economy in 2015, growth projected to decline by another 2 pp to 3¼ percent in 2015 (a downward revision of 2½ pp since October 2014 REO).
- CCA oil exporters: growth projected to decline by 2 pp to 3½ percent in 2015.
- CCA oil importers: growth projected to slow by 3 pp to 1½ percent in 2015.
- Inflation and exchange rates:
- Inflation expected to rise by 1 pp to 7 percent in 2015 due to currency depreciation and pass-through.
- Some countries devalued currencies in early 2015 (Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan); Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz Republic allowed varying depreciation.
- Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan expected to reach double-digit inflation due to strong pass-through and credit growth.
- External and fiscal positions:
- CCA oil exporters’ current account expected to turn from a surplus of 3 percent of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2½ percent in 2015.
- CCA oil importers’ current account deficit expected to worsen slightly to 11 percent in 2015.
- Some oil exporters (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) to use large buffers for near-term countercyclical stimulus; Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan plan sizable consolidations in 2015 and medium term.
- Fiscal breakeven concerns: exporters such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan cannot cover government spending at oil prices below $58.
- Financial sector stress and policy response:
- Currency depreciation and dollarization increase credit and solvency risks; nonperforming loans high or rising (25 percent in Kazakhstan, 27 percent in Tajikistan).
- Supervisors urged to intensify surveillance, avoid forbearance and evergreening, require adequate classification and provisioning, limit liquidity support to solvent banks, and require shareholder recapitalization where needed.
- Structural reforms:
- Need for market deepening, governance improvements, infrastructure closing, business regulation reforms, trade integration, labor market reforms, and increased domestic competition (e.g., energy sector in Armenia).
Projections and Assumptions (as stated)
- Oil price assumptions:
- Price of oil assumed to average US$58.1 a barrel in 2015 and US$65.7 a barrel in 2016 (simple average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate).
- LIBOR assumptions:
- Six-month LIBOR on U.S. dollar deposits assumed to average 0.7 percent in 2015 and 1.9 percent in 2016.
- Projections are working hypotheses based on data through mid-March 2015; 2015 and 2016 data are projections.
- Somalia excluded from regional aggregates due to lack of reliable data; Syria excluded for 2011 onward.
Policy Recommendations and Scenarios
- Fiscal policy:
- Where buffers and financing allow, use temporary fiscal easing to respond to weakening demand and declining remittances.
- Over the medium term, prioritize fiscal consolidation to rebuild depleted buffers and adjust spending to the new context.
- Implement growth-friendly consolidation: limit current spending overruns, slow public wage growth, prioritize and increase oversight of capital spending.
- Reduce generalized energy subsidies and increase targeted social assistance; implement automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms where appropriate.
- Improve tax administration and broaden non-oil revenue bases.
- Monetary and exchange rate policy:
- Greater exchange rate flexibility where needed to ease reserve pressures and retain competitiveness.
- Monetary tightening may be necessary where inflation expectations risk unanchoring; in regions with rising reserves and lower inflation, easing may support recovery but exercise prudence.
- In the CCA, tighten monetary policy where inflation elevated; improve liquidity management and use macroprudential tools to curb excessive credit growth.
- Medium-term focus on reducing dollarization via credible monetary/exchange frameworks and deeper domestic financial markets.
- Financial sector measures:
- Intensify supervision, require appropriate NPL recognition and provisioning, limit liquidity support to solvent banks, and strengthen crisis management frameworks.
- Avoid forbearance and evergreening; require shareholder capital contributions for undercapitalized banks.
- Structural reforms and diversification:
- Prioritize deep structural reforms to improve the business climate, governance, and competitiveness.
- Encourage private-sector-driven diversification, incentives for tradable goods sectors, skills development aligned with private demand, and increased private employment of nationals.
Selected Regional Statistics and Indicators (preserve numeric values as presented)
- Oil price path in baseline: $58 per barrel in 2015; $74 per barrel by 2020.
- Fall in anticipated oil export earnings in 2015:
- GCC: $287 billion (21 percent of GDP).
- Non-GCC: $90 billion (11 percent of GDP).
- MENAP oil exporters current account: deficit of $22 billion (1 percent of GDP) in 2015.
- GCC combined budget: 2014 surplus $76 billion (4½ percent of GDP) → 2015 deficit $113 billion (8 percent of GDP).
- Non-GCC fiscal deficit: 2014 — 4¾ percent of GDP → 2015 — 9 percent of GDP.
- MENAP oil exporters growth: 2014 — 2.4 percent; 2015 — 3.4 percent.
- MENAP oil importers growth: 2014 — 3.0 percent; 2015 — 4.0 percent.
- Inflation in MENAP oil importers: expected decline by 2½ pp to 7 percent in 2015.
- Net external gains for MENAP oil importers from lower oil prices in 2015: $16 billion (1½ percent of GDP).
- Public debt projection change: 2015 public debt lowered by 2 pp of GDP from last October REO to 75 percent of GDP.
- CCA growth: 2014 — 5¼ percent; 2015 projection — 3¼ percent (decline of 2 pp).
- CCA inflation: expected to rise by 1 pp to 7 percent in 2015.
- Nonperforming loans highlighted: Kazakhstan — 25 percent; Tajikistan — 27 percent.
- Fiscal breakeven concern: some CCA exporters cannot cover government spending at oil prices below $58.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; May 2015 Update — IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD).
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References
- Caucasus, Central Asia Feel Impact of Adverse Shocks
- Middle East Outlook Sees Modest Improvement, But Risks Remain
- Middle East & Central Asia Regional Economic Outlooks
- IMF Data Portal: MCD REO May 2015
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