Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

Sub-Saharan Africa, April 12, 2019

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Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 12, 2019
• Series: Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional growth and outlook

• Regional growth is set to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019, before stabilizing at close to 4 percent over the medium term.
• Aggregate growth stabilizes at slightly below 4 percent over the medium term—or about 5 percent, excluding the two major economies, Nigeria and South Africa.
• Economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is set to continue with growth projected to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019.

Two-track recovery and cross-country differences

• Region‑wide averages mask considerable differences in growth performance and prospects across countries.
• About half of the region’s countries—mostly non-resource-intensive countries—are expected to grow at 5 percent or more.
  • Some 21 countries, mainly the region’s more diversified economies, are expected to sustain growth at 5 percent or more and remain on the per capita convergence path experienced since the early 2000s.
• The remaining countries—mostly resource-intensive economies—face slower improvements in living standards.
  • In the 24 other more resource-dependent economies, including the largest (Nigeria and South Africa), growth looks set to remain anemic in the near term.
  • With some two-thirds of the region’s population residing in these countries, much slower improvement in standards of living is implied for the lion’s share of sub-Saharan Africans.

Conflict and economic consequences

• Armed conflict remains pervasive; while there was a declining trend in incidence and intensity since the early 2000s, there has been an uptick in violence in recent years reflecting the global increase in conflict.
• Overall, about a third of the countries in the region have been affected by conflict in recent years.

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

• In 2018, African Union member countries agreed to establish the AfCFTA to boost regional trade and economic integration.
  • Agreement elements: eliminate tariffs on most goods, liberalize trade of key services, address nontariff obstacles to intraregional trade, and eventually create a continental single market with free movement of labor and capital.
• The AfCFTA has been ratified by 22 countries and is likely to take effect in 2019, although negotiations on specific features are ongoing.
• Once operational, the AfCFTA will establish a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion.
• The AfCFTA could be an economic game changer for the continent.

Policy priorities and recommendations

• Strengthen resilience and create higher, more inclusive, and durable growth across the region.
• Build fiscal space and enhance resilience to shocks by stepping up actions to mobilize revenues.
• Implement policies to boost productivity and private investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019

Content in this bundle

• sreo0419
  • sreo0419 (Markdown version)
  • sreo0419 (PDF)
• Chapter 1
  • Chapter 1 (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 1 (PDF)
• Chapter 2
  • Chapter 2 (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 2 (PDF)
• Chapter 3
  • Chapter 3 (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 3 (PDF)
• Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019
  • Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019 (Markdown version)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019 (PDF)
• Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019
  • Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (Markdown version)
  • Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (PDF)
• Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019
  • Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (Markdown version)
  • Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (PDF)
• 1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza
  • 1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza (Markdown version)
  • 1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza (PDF)

References

• IMF Data Portal
• [IMF Data Mapper® v3

Plot, compare and import data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/AFRREO)

• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
• Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr
• Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm
• Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo
• Asia and Pacific
• Europe
• Middle East and Central Asia
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Western Hemisphere
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb
• Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development
• More Publications
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• Country Focus
• Podcast
• [Background Paper and

Expanded Statistical Appendix Tables](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/backgroundpapers.ash)

• https://www.imf.org/en/home