International Monetary Fund

IMF Seminars and Conferences

Analyzing (External) Imbalances

Thursday, February 2, 2012, Washington, D.C.

Conference organized by the IMF's Research Department
IMF Headquarters 2, Conference Hall 1

“Achieving a ‘strong, balanced and sustained world recovery’…was never going to be easy. It requires much more than just going back to business as usual. It requires two fundamental and complex economic rebalancing acts…”
—Olivier Blanchard

The Research Department at the IMF is hosting a conference on Analyzing (External) Imbalances on February 2, 2012.

The conference opens at 9:00 a.m. in Conference Hall 1. Planned sessions will explore large current account surpluses and deficits, and external balance assessments. The event concludes at 4:00-5:30 with a roundtable discussion on the past, present and future of global imbalances and its implications for the world economy.

External participants and other attendees will be participating by invitation.


Thursday, February 2, 2012

9:00–10:00 AM Introductory and Welcoming Remarks
• Olivier Blanchard
G-20 MAP Focus on Imbalances—Krishna Srinivasan
G-20 MAP Indicative Guidelines: how/why 7 countries were chosen for deeper assessment of imbalances—Emil Stavrev
10:00–10:15 AM Coffee Break
10:15–11:45 AM Session 1: What can explain large current account surpluses?
Moderator: Ashoka Mody

Case studies of China and Germany—presentations by Shaun Roache and Vladimir Klyuev
   • Nicholas Lardy [Presentation ]
   • Joshua Aizenman [Presentation ]

Case studies of Japan—presentation by Josh Felman
   • Joseph Gagnon [Presentation ]
11:45–1:15 PM Session 2: What can explain large current account deficits?
Moderator: Krishna Srinivasan

Case studies of United Kingdom and United States—presentations by Shaun Roache and Vladimir Klyuev
   • Jay Shambaugh [Presentation ]
   • Stephen Pickford

Case study of France and India—presentations by Joong Shik Kang and Josh Felman
   • Arvind Subramanian [Presentation ]
1:30–2:30 PM Luncheon and Talk (HQ 2 Conference Hall 2)By Invitation Only
John Lipsky—reflections on G-20 process, imbalances
2:30–3:45 PM Session 3: External Balance Assessments
Moderator: Jonathan D. Ostry

Presentation by Steve Phillips [Presentation ]
   • Menzie Chinn [Presentation ]
   • Joshua Aizenmann [Presentation ]
4:00–5:30 PM Roundtable—Imbalances and the Global Economy: Past, Present, and Future

Moderator: Nemat Shafik (IMF, Deputy Managing Director)


Olivier Blanchard, Economic Counsellor and Director Research DepartmentOlivier Blanchard

IMF, Economic Counsellor and Director

Maurice ObstfeldMaurice Obstfeld
University of California, Berkley, Professor



Stephen PickfordStephen Pickford
HM Treasury, Managing Director—retired; Associate Fellow, Chatham House


Paul RochonPaul Rochon
Canada, Associate Deputy Minister of Finance


Christian BrodaChristian Broda
Duquesne Capital, Managing Director