Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

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Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 10, 2019

Overview

• The April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.
• As a result, financial vulnerabilities have continued to build in the sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemically important countries, leading to elevated medium-term risks.
• The report provides a comprehensive assessment of these vulnerabilities with a focus on:
  • corporate sector debt in advanced economies,
  • the sovereign–financial sector nexus in the euro area,
  • China’s financial imbalances,
  • volatile portfolio flows to emerging markets, and
  • downside risks to the housing market.

Major Vulnerabilities and Medium-Term Risks

• Financial conditions: remain accommodative after significant variability over the past two quarters.
• Vulnerabilities identified:
  • sovereign sector vulnerabilities in several systemically important countries;
  • corporate sector debt buildup in advanced economies;
  • nonbank financial sector vulnerabilities;
  • China’s financial imbalances and bank balance sheet weaknesses;
  • volatile portfolio flows to emerging markets and frontier economies;
  • downside risks to house prices and potential implications for GDP growth and financial stability.

Corporate Sector, Sovereign–Financial Nexus, and Liquidity Risks

• Corporate sector focus:
  • Late-cycle corporate sector risks in advanced economies.
  • The report documents "The Unique Features of the Current Corporate Credit Cycle" and tracks the corporate credit cycle: United States versus Europe.
  • Corporate profitability and credit quality indicators are examined in advanced economies.
  • Potential fallout assessed from BBB bond downgrades on the US high-yield corporate bond market.
  • Developments in the leveraged loan market in the United States and Europe are analyzed.
• Euro area sovereign–financial sector nexus:
  • Examination of the Euro Area Sovereign–Financial Sector Nexus.
  • Channels of contagion in the sovereign–financial sector nexus are laid out.
  • Analysis of euro area banks, sovereign shocks, and nonperforming loans.
  • Selected euro area countries: insurers’ exposures to sovereign, bank and corporate bonds.
  • Italian sovereign and banks: recent financial developments.
• Liquidity and market structure:
  • Special Feature: Liquidity Risks in Capital Markets.
  • Structural changes in the provision of and demand for market liquidity and the evolution in market liquidity are presented.
  • Prevalence of jumps and liquidity strain in advanced and emerging markets is documented.

China, Emerging Markets, and Portfolio Flows

• China:
  • Vulnerabilities in China: impact of regulatory tightening on credit expansion.
  • China: bank balance sheet weaknesses.
  • Impact of tightening financial conditions on nonfinancial firms in China.
  • Box on "China’s Share-Collateralized Lending and Its Financial Stability Implications."
  • Province-level house prices at risk in China are examined (Chapter 2 analyses).
• Emerging and frontier markets:
  • Recent developments in emerging and frontier markets.
  • Recent pressures and outlook for portfolio flows to emerging markets.
  • Analysis of emerging market benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors and benchmark-driven portfolio flows to emerging markets.
  • Emerging Market and Frontier Debt Characteristics and the Impact of China’s Inclusion in Benchmark Indices.
  • Frontier debt vulnerabilities are assessed.

House Prices at Risk (Chapter 2)

• Scope and method:
  • Studies and quantifies house prices at risk, a measure of downside risks to future house price growth.
  • Uses theory, insights from past analyses, and new statistical techniques applied to 32 advanced and emerging market economies and major cities.
• Key empirical findings:
  • Lower house price momentum, overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions predict heightened downside risks to house prices up to three years ahead.
  • The measure of house prices at risk helps forecast downside risks to GDP growth and adds to early-warning models for financial crises.
  • Predictive distributions, out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, and synchronization of house prices at risk across countries are analyzed.
  • Factors affecting house prices at risk in the United States and China and city- and country-level comparisons are provided.
• Policy relevance:
  • Policymakers can use estimates of house prices at risk to complement other surveillance indicators of housing market vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy actions aimed at building buffers and reducing vulnerabilities.
  • Downside risks to house prices could also be relevant for monetary policymakers when forming views on downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook.
  • Authorities considering measures to manage capital flows might find the information useful when a surge in capital inflows increases downside risks to house prices and when other policy options are limited.

Policy Recommendations and Priorities

• Communicate monetary policy outlook:
  • Clear communication of any changes in monetary policy outlook is recommended to reduce the buildup of vulnerabilities.
• Macroprudential policy:
  • Deployment and expansion of macroprudential tools to address housing and credit vulnerabilities.
  • Use estimates of house prices at risk to guide macroprudential policy actions.
• Balance sheet repair:
  • Stepping up measures to repair public and private sector balance sheets.
• Emerging market resilience:
  • Strengthening emerging market resilience to foreign portfolio outflows and volatile capital flows.
• Other policy implications:
  • Authorities managing capital flows should consider house price downside risk information when inflows increase housing vulnerabilities and when policy options are limited.

Key Figures and Analytical Components Referenced

• Global market and financial condition indicators: "1.1. Global Market Developments", "1.2. Global Financial Conditions", "1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates", "1.4. Global Financial Vulnerabilities", "1.5. Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities", "1.6. Asset Price Misalignments".
• Corporate and credit cycle analytics: "1.7. Credit Market Developments in the United States and Europe", "1.8. The Unique Features of the Current Corporate Credit Cycle", "1.9. Tracking the Corporate Credit Cycle: United States versus Europe", "1.10. Corporate Profitability Indicators in Advanced Economies", "1.11. Corporate Credit Quality Indicators in Advanced Economies".
• Sovereign and bank linkages: "1.14. Italian Sovereign and Banks: Recent Financial Developments", "1.15. The Euro Area Sovereign–Financial Sector Nexus", "1.16. Channels of Contagion in the Sovereign–Financial Sector Nexus", "1.17. Euro Area Banks, Sovereign Shocks, and Nonperforming Loans", "1.18. Selected Euro Area Countries: Insurers’ Exposures to Sovereign, Bank and Corporate Bonds", "1.19. Euro Area Bank Profits and Funding".
• Emerging market flow and debt characteristics: "1.20. Recent Developments in Emerging and Frontier Markets", "1.21. Recent Pressures and Outlook for Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets", "1.22. Emerging Market Benchmark-Driven versus Unconstrained Investors", "1.23. Benchmark-Driven Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets", "1.24. Emerging Market and Frontier Debt Characteristics and the Impact of China’s Inclusion in Benchmark Indices", "1.28. Frontier Debt Vulnerabilities".
• China-specific charts: "1.25. China: Impact of Regulatory Tightening on Credit Expansion", "1.26. China: Bank Balance Sheet Weaknesses", "1.27. China: Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions on Nonfinancial Firms".
• House prices analysis figures and annexes: "2.1. Historical Developments in Real House Prices", "2.2. House Prices and Financial Stability", "2.3. Frequency Distribution of Real House Price Growth", "2.4. Determinants of Real House Prices", "2.5. House Prices and Fundamentals: Quantile Regression Results", "2.6. Evolution of House Prices at Risk and Shifts in Riskiness", "2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks", "2.8. Factors Affecting House Prices at Risk in the United States and China", "2.9. City- and Country-Level Comparisons of House Prices at Risk", "2.10. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy", "2.11. House Prices at Risk and Financial Stability", "2.12. Effects of Macroprudential and Monetary Policy and Capital Flows on House Prices at Risk".

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle — April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).

Content in this bundle

• Assumptions and Conventions
  • Assumptions and Conventions (Markdown version)
  • Assumptions and Conventions (PDF)
• Imf Executive Board Discussion Summary
  • Imf Executive Board Discussion Summary (Markdown version)
  • Imf Executive Board Discussion Summary (PDF)
• Chapter 1
  • Chapter 1 (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 1 (PDF)
• Figure1 1 1
  • Figure1 1 1 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 1 1 (CSV)
• figure1-1
  • figure1-1 (Markdown version)
  • figure1-1 (CSV)
• Figure 1.10. Corporate Profitability Indicators in Advanced Economies
  • Figure 1.10. Corporate Profitability Indicators in Advanced Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Corporate Profitability Indicators in Advanced Economies (CSV)
• Figure 1.11. Corporate Credit Quality Indicators in Advanced Economies
  • Figure 1.11. Corporate Credit Quality Indicators in Advanced Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.11. Corporate Credit Quality Indicators in Advanced Economies (CSV)
• Figure1 12
  • Figure1 12 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 12 (CSV)
• Figure 1.15. The Euro Area Sovereign–Financial Sector Nexus
  • Figure 1.15. The Euro Area Sovereign–Financial Sector Nexus (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.15. The Euro Area Sovereign–Financial Sector Nexus (CSV)
• Figure 1.17. Euro Area Banks, Sovereign Shocks, and Nonperforming Loans
  • Figure 1.17. Euro Area Banks, Sovereign Shocks, and Nonperforming Loans (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.17. Euro Area Banks, Sovereign Shocks, and Nonperforming Loans (CSV)
• Figure 1.19
  • Figure 1.19 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.19 (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Global Financial Conditions
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.20. Recent Developments in Emerging and Frontier Markets
  • Figure 1.20. Recent Developments in Emerging and Frontier Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. Recent Developments in Emerging and Frontier Markets (CSV)
• Figure 1.21. Recent Pressures and Outlook for Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets
  • Figure 1.21. Recent Pressures and Outlook for Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.21. Recent Pressures and Outlook for Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (CSV)
• Figure 1.22. Emerging Market Benchmark-Driven versus Unconstrained Investors
  • Figure 1.22. Emerging Market Benchmark-Driven versus Unconstrained Investors (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. Emerging Market Benchmark-Driven versus Unconstrained Investors (CSV)
• Figure 1.23. Benchmark-Driven Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets
  • Figure 1.23. Benchmark-Driven Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.23. Benchmark-Driven Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (CSV)
• Figure1 24
  • Figure1 24 (Markdown version)
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• Figure1 25
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• Figure 1.26. China: Bank Balance Sheet Weaknesses
  • Figure 1.26. China: Bank Balance Sheet Weaknesses (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. China: Bank Balance Sheet Weaknesses (CSV)
• Figure 1.27. China: Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions on Nonfinancial Firms
  • Figure 1.27. China: Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions on Nonfinancial Firms (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.27. China: Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions on Nonfinancial Firms (CSV)
• figure1-28
  • figure1-28 (Markdown version)
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• Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates
  • Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates (CSV)
• figure1-4
  • figure1-4 (Markdown version)
  • figure1-4 (CSV)
• Figure 1.5. Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities
  • Figure 1.5. Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.5. Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Asset Price Misalignment
  • Figure 1.6. Asset Price Misalignment (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Asset Price Misalignment (CSV)
• Figure 1.7. Credit Market Developments in the United States and Europe
  • Figure 1.7. Credit Market Developments in the United States and Europe (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.7. Credit Market Developments in the United States and Europe (CSV)
• Figure 1.8. The Key Features of the Current Corporate Credit Cycle
  • Figure 1.8. The Key Features of the Current Corporate Credit Cycle (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.8. The Key Features of the Current Corporate Credit Cycle (CSV)
• Figure 1.9. Tracking the Corporate Credit Cycle: United States versus Europe
  • Figure 1.9. Tracking the Corporate Credit Cycle: United States versus Europe (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.9. Tracking the Corporate Credit Cycle: United States versus Europe (CSV)
• Figure 1.SF.3. Prevalence of Jumps and Liquidity Strain in Advanced and Emerging Markets
  • Figure 1.SF.3. Prevalence of Jumps and Liquidity Strain in Advanced and Emerging Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.SF.3. Prevalence of Jumps and Liquidity Strain in Advanced and Emerging Markets (CSV)
• Figure1 Sf 4
  • Figure1 Sf 4 (Markdown version)
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• Figure 1.SF.5. Proportion of Intraday Price Variation Due to Jumps: In Japanese Yen/US Dollar
  • Figure 1.SF.5. Proportion of Intraday Price Variation Due to Jumps: In Japanese Yen/US Dollar (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.SF.5. Proportion of Intraday Price Variation Due to Jumps: In Japanese Yen/US Dollar (CSV)
• figure1-sf-6
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• 113102.Figure 1.1.1
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• 113102.Figure 1.1
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• 113102.Figure 1.10
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• 113102.Figure 1.11
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• 113102.Figure 1.12
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• 113102.Figure 1.13
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• 113102.Figure 2.8
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• 113102.Figure 1.15
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• 113102.Figure 2.2
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• 113102.Figure 1.17
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• 113102.Figure 1.18
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• 113102.Figure 1.19
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• 113102.Figure 1.2
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• 113102.Figure 1.20
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• 113102.Figure 1.26
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• 113102.Figure 1.27
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• 113102.Figure 1.28
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• 113102.Figure 2.7
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• 113102.Figure 1.4
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• 113102.Figure 1.5
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• 113102.Figure 1.6
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• 113102.Figure 1.7
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• 113102.Figure 1.8
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• 113102.Figure 1.9
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• 113102.Figure 1.SF.1
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• 113102.Figure 1.SF.2
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• 113102.Figure 1.SF.4
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• 110566.Figure 2.SF.1
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• 113102.Figure 1.SF.6
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• Chapter 2
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• 113102.Box Figure 2.1.1
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• 113102.Box Figure 2.2.1
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• 113102.Box Figure 2.3.1
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• 113102.Box Figure 2.3.2
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• 113102.Figure 2.1
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• 113102.Figure 2.10
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• 113102.Figure 2.11
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• 113102.Figure 2.12
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• 113102.Figure 2.2
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• 113102.Figure 2.3
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• 113102.Figure 2.4
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• 113102.Figure 2.5
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• 113102.Figure 2.6
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• 113102.Figure 2.7
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• 113102.Figure 2.8
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• 113102.Figure 2.9
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• Figure 2.1.1. Instantaneous Quasi-Correlation of Downside Risks in House Price
  • Figure 2.1.1. Instantaneous Quasi-Correlation of Downside Risks in House Price (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1.1. Instantaneous Quasi-Correlation of Downside Risks in House Price (CSV)
• Dataset: boxfigure-221
  • Dataset: boxfigure-221 (Markdown version)
  • Dataset: boxfigure-221 (CSV)
• Boxfigure 231232csv
  • Boxfigure 231232csv (Markdown version)
  • Boxfigure 231232csv (CSV)
• Figure 2.10. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy
  • Figure 2.10. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.10. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy (CSV)
• Figure 2.11. House Prices at Risk
  • Figure 2.11. House Prices at Risk (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.11. House Prices at Risk (CSV)
• Figure212
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• Figure 2.1. Historical Developments in Real House Prices
  • Figure 2.1. Historical Developments in Real House Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1. Historical Developments in Real House Prices (CSV)
• figure23
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• Figure 2.4. Determinants of Real House Prices
  • Figure 2.4. Determinants of Real House Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Determinants of Real House Prices (CSV)
• Figure 2.5. House Prices and Fundamentals: Quantile Regression Results
  • Figure 2.5. House Prices and Fundamentals: Quantile Regression Results (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.5. House Prices and Fundamentals: Quantile Regression Results (CSV)
• Figure 2.6. Evolution of House Prices at Risk
  • Figure 2.6. Evolution of House Prices at Risk (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.6. Evolution of House Prices at Risk (CSV)
• Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks
  • Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks (CSV)
• dataset overview: figure28
  • dataset overview: figure28 (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview: figure28 (CSV)
• Figure 2.9. City- and Country-Level Comparisons of House Prices at Risk
  • Figure 2.9. City- and Country-Level Comparisons of House Prices at Risk (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.9. City- and Country-Level Comparisons of House Prices at Risk (CSV)
• Summary — Downsides Risks to House Prices
  • Summary — Downsides Risks to House Prices (Markdown version)
  • Summary — Downsides Risks to House Prices (PDF)
• Executive Summary
  • Executive Summary (Markdown version)
  • Executive Summary (PDF)
• Foreword
  • Foreword (Markdown version)
  • Foreword (PDF)
• Furtherinformation
  • Furtherinformation (Markdown version)
  • Furtherinformation (PDF)
• onlineannex11
  • onlineannex11 (Markdown version)
  • onlineannex11 (PDF)
• Online Annex 2.1. Data and Empirical Methodology
  • Online Annex 2.1. Data and Empirical Methodology (Markdown version)
  • Online Annex 2.1. Data and Empirical Methodology (PDF)
• Online Annex 2.2. Theoretical Modeling Framework
  • Online Annex 2.2. Theoretical Modeling Framework (Markdown version)
  • Online Annex 2.2. Theoretical Modeling Framework (PDF)
• Preface
  • Preface (Markdown version)
  • Preface (PDF)
• Full Report
  • Full Report (Markdown version)
  • Full Report (PDF)

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