Asia-Pacific Regional Seminar: IMF’s Latest World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Asia-Pacific Regional Seminar: IMF’s Latest World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries
Other formats
Contact
For event inquiries:
International Monetary Fund
Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Tel. 81-(0)3-3597-6700
Email: OAPEconomicSeminar@imf.org
Global prospects and policies (WEO, Ch. 1) — Findings
- The IMF revised its projection of global economic growth in 2021 upward from 5.5% to 6%.
- Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022, revised up from the October 2020 WEO.
- The upward revision reflects:
- additional fiscal support in a few large economies;
- the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021;
- continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility.
- High uncertainty surrounds the outlook, related to:
- the pandemic’s path;
- the effectiveness of policies as a bridge to vaccine-powered normalization;
- the evolution of financial conditions.
- Much remains to be done to beat back the pandemic and avoid persistent increases in inequality within countries and divergence across economies.
After-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: prospects for medium-term economic damage (WEO, Ch. 2) — Findings and recommendations
- Expected medium-term output losses from the pandemic are substantial, at about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024.
- The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response.
- Policy recommendations to limit scarring:
- continue to provide support to the most-affected sectors and workers while the pandemic is ongoing;
- implement remedial policies for the setback to human capital accumulation;
- adopt measures to lift investment;
- pursue initiatives to support reallocation to address long-term GDP losses.
Recessions and recoveries in labor markets (WEO, Ch. 3) — Findings and policy guidance
- The labor market fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic continues, with young and lower-skilled workers particularly hard-hit.
- Preexisting employment trends favoring a shift away from jobs that are more vulnerable to automation are accelerating.
- Policy findings:
- Policy support for job retention is extremely powerful at reducing scarring and mitigating the unequal impacts from the acute pandemic shock.
- As the pandemic subsides and the recovery normalizes, a switch toward worker reallocation support measures could help reduce unemployment more quickly and ease adjustment to the permanent effects of the COVID-19 shock on the labor market.
Shifting gears: monetary policy spillovers during the recovery (WEO, Ch. 4) — Findings and policy implications
- Monetary policy easing by advanced economies early in the pandemic provided much financial relief to emerging markets.
- Looking ahead, a multispeed recovery from the crisis will raise challenges.
- The analysis suggests:
- a US tightening resulting from a stronger US economy tends to be benign for most emerging market economies;
- a surprise tightening triggers capital outflows from emerging markets.
- Policy implications:
- It will be important for advanced economies to explain clearly how they will implement their monetary policies during the recovery.
- Emerging market economies can reduce their vulnerability to adverse financial spillovers by adopting more transparent and rules-based monetary and fiscal frameworks.
Seminar format and speakers
- Seminar convened by the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific to share analysis from the World Economic Outlook report on May 13.
- Speakers:
- Malhar Nabar — heads the World Economic Studies division in the IMF Research Department; research interests in financial development, investment, and productivity growth; joined the IMF in 2009; Ph.D. from Brown University.
- Giacomo Magistretti — Economist in the World Economic Studies Division; recent PhD in Economics from Northwestern University; research on macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
- Ippei Shibata — Economist in the Structural Reforms Unit of the IMF Research Department; research on applied macroeconomics and labor market issues; Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago.
- Philipp Engler — Economist in the Multilateral Surveillance Division of the IMF Research Department; research on open economy macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
Agenda (selected timings)
- 11:00-11:05 am — Introduction
- 11:05-11:35 am — Presentation 1: Global outlook and policies (WEO, Ch. 1) by Malhar Nabar
- 11:35-11:50 am — Q&A
- 11:50-12:00 pm — Presentation 2: The pandemic’s possible persistent after-effects (WEO, Ch. 2) by Giacomo Magistretti
- 12:00-12:10 pm — Presentation 3: Labor market fallout from the pandemic (WEO, Ch. 3) by Ippei Shibata
- 12:10-12:20 pm — Presentation 4: Monetary policy spillovers and challenges during the recovery (WEO, Ch. 4) by Philipp Engler
- 12:20-12:35 pm — Q&A session
- 12:35-12:40 pm — Wrap up & post-event survey
Content in this bundle
- Presentation by Philipp Enger, IMF Asia-Pacific Seminar on WEO Chapter 4, May 13 2021
- Presentation by Giacomo Magistretti, IMF Asia-Pacific Seminar on WEO Chapter 2, May 13 2021
- Presentation by Ippei Shibata, IMF Asia-Pacific Seminar on WEO Chapter 3, May 13 2021
- Presentation by Malhar Nabar, IMF Asia-Pacific Seminar on WEO Chapter 1, May 13 2021
References
- OAP Home
- World Economic Outlook (WEO)report on May 13. Authoring economists from the IMF Research Department discussed the global outlook and policies, and present thematic analyses of the pandemic’s possible scarring effects, the labor market fallout from the pandemic, and spillover risks and challenges from monetary policy during the recovery.