Press Release: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Côte d’Ivoire on a Program to be Supported with US$614 million Under the Extended Credit Facility, Concludes 2011 Article IV Staff Mission
IMF News, September 15, 2011
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- Published: September 15, 2011
Mission, meetings, and staff-level agreement
- IMF staff team led by Ms. Doris Ross was in Abidjan since August 31 to discuss a three-year economic and financial program and the 2011 Article IV Consultation.
- The mission met with: Prime Minister Guillaume Kigbafori Soro; State Minister for Justice Ahoussou Jeannot; State Minister for Employment and Social Affairs Gilbert Kone; State Minister for Planning and Development Albert Mabri Toikeuse; Minister of Economy and Finance Charles Koffi Diby; Minister of Industry Moussa Dosso; Minister of Economic Infrastructure Patrick Achi; Minister of Mines, Petroleum, and Energy Adama Toungara; Minister of Civil Service Konan Gnamien; Minister of Agriculture Mamadou Sangafowa Coulibaly; Minister of Commerce Dagobert Bazio; Minister-Delegate for Defense Paul Koffi Koffi; National Director of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Jean-Baptiste Aman; other senior officials; and representatives of civil society, the private sector, and the diplomatic community.
- Staff-level agreement reached on an economic framework through 2014 expected to facilitate transition from crisis recovery to sustained growth.
- The policies could be supported with SDR 390 million (about US$614 million) under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF), subject to approval by IMF management and the Executive Board.
- The Board could consider Côte d’Ivoire’s request for ECF support in early November.
Economic impact of the post-election crisis and recovery assessment
- The post-election crisis that began in December 2010 had a strong negative impact on the population and the economy.
- IMF approved financial support of about US$130 million in July (see Press Release No. 11/272).
- Recovery indicators:
- Industrial production in June reached 95 percent of its level a year earlier, compared with 50 percent in April.
- The current agricultural season is expected to be strong.
- As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) for 2011 is now projected to be 5.8 percent below 2010.
- Consumer prices, which rose sharply during the crisis, are on a downward trend.
Near-term and medium-term growth and external outlook
- 2011: Government’s immediate policy priority has been to support the recovery, balancing tax relief with funding restoration of public services.
- 2012:
- Economy expected to move into an expansion phase, growing by 8-9 percent.
- External current account expected to swing into deficit for the first time in several years.
- Government revenue expected to recover, though not fully to pre-crisis levels.
- Post-crisis incorporation of ex-combatants and previously-unpaid teachers from the country’s North into the government payroll will further expand the already high wage bill.
- Government expects to accommodate this increase through tight controls of other current spending to create fiscal space to increase public investment to 5 percent of GDP (from 3 percent in 2010).
- 2013-14:
- Successful implementation of the government’s program should lead to economic growth of around 6 percent.
- Continued revenue growth permitting further increases in public investment to reach a targeted 7 percent of GDP in 2014.
Policy measures, reforms, and priorities
- Medium-term reform program foundation and policy measures include:
- Raise government revenues by expanding the tax base.
- Strengthen public financial management.
- Reach financial balance in the power sector.
- Reform the legal system, especially pertaining to commercial affairs, and improve the business environment.
- Establish the long-term viability of the public pension funds.
- Enhance the ability of the Ivoirien financial sector to intermediate savings.
- Government strategy emphasizes rebuilding the economy after years of internal crisis, weak investment, low growth, and low employment, with a focus on fostering a dynamic private sector and increasing public investment, partnering with the private sector on infrastructure where possible.
Risks, conditionalities, and milestones
- Achieving program aims will require:
- Robust implementation of reforms.
- Continued improvement in the security environment, especially movement of goods and persons.
- Successful conduct of legislative elections, currently expected at the end of 2011.
- To reach the Completion Point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, authorities need to focus on key reforms, particularly in the coffee/cocoa sector.
- The government secured external assistance at exceptional levels and forbearance by external creditors has allowed a substantial deficit to be financed with limited recourse to regional financial markets.
Press Release No. 11/333, September 15, 2011