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Italy: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2020 Article IV Mission
January 29, 2020
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IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: Andreas Adriano
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
January 29, 2020
PRESS OFFICER: Andreas Adriano
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
1. Fiscal policy implementation in 2019 was better than expected and contributed to improving market sentiment. Constructive engagement with the European Commission helped to avoid the launch of the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure. Budget execution was prudent even as new social programs (the “Quota 100” early retirement rule and the citizenship income program) were launched. Revenue collection was also higher than expected. This, the new government’s pro-EU stance, and the accommodative ECB policy helped reduce sovereign yields to near historical lows.
2. Nonetheless, the weakening external environment and domestic policy uncertainty have complicated an already difficult economic and social situation. Real GDP growth in 2019 is estimated at 0.2 percent, down from a 10-year high of 1.7 percent in 2017. Real personal incomes remain about 7 percent below the pre-crisis (2007) peak and continue to fall behind euro area peers. Despite record employment rates, unemployment is high at close to 10 percent, with much higher rates in the South and among the youth. Female workforce participation is the lowest in the EU.
3. The economic situation is projected to improve modestly but is subject to downside risks. Real GDP growth is forecast at ½ percent in 2020 and 0.6-0.7 percent thereafter. These forecasts are the lowest in the EU, reflecting weak potential growth. Materialization of adverse shocks, such as escalating trade tensions, a slowdown in key trading partners or geopolitical events, could lead to a much weaker outlook.
4. The overarching need, therefore, is for a comprehensive package of reforms to raise growth and enhance resilience. The current low interest rates provide a window of opportunity. (i) Structural reforms should tackle barriers to competition, rigid wage bargaining, and public sector and judicial inefficiencies. (ii) Credible medium-term fiscal consolidation is needed to lower public debt, underpinned by measures to support growth, protect the poor, and combat climate change. (iii) Continued strengthening of the stability of the banking system and its ability to support the economy requires bolstering capital in weak banks and improving profitability and asset quality.
Structural reforms to raise growth and create jobs
5. Steadfast implementation of structural reforms would unlock Italy’s potential and durably improve outcomes. Reforms to liberalize markets and decentralize wage bargaining should be prioritized. They are estimated to yield real income gains of about 6-7 percent of GDP over a decade. Timely implementation of efforts underway to improve public sector efficiency and the insolvency and justice frameworks would add to these gains.
Fiscal policies to safeguard sustainability and promote inclusive growth
6. The government’s fiscal plan is modestly expansionary in 2020 and neutral thereafter. Key measures in this year’s budget comprise postponing VAT hikes, a modestly lower labor tax wedge, combating tax evasion, incentives for private investment, and higher public investment including the Green New Deal. We project the overall deficit at around 2.4 percent of GDP in 2020, after which it declines marginally. This is based on lower nominal growth assumptions than the authorities and excludes future VAT safeguard clauses.
7. Italy needs credible medium-term consolidation as fiscal space remains at risk. Debt is projected to remain high at close to 135 percent of GDP over the medium term and to increase in the longer term owing to pension spending. If adverse shocks were to materialize, debt would rise sooner and faster. Therefore, it is strongly advisable to take advantage of the current low interest rates to implement credible medium-term consolidation, by legislating upfront high-quality measures. A gradual and balanced adjustment should aim to deliver an overall surplus of ½ percent of GDP by around 2025. Given current weak private demand, however, a neutral fiscal stance for this year could be considered, if a credible medium-term consolidation were in place.
8. Consolidation should be underpinned by inclusive and growth-friendly measures.
Spending: Current primary spending should be reduced over the medium term to meet deficit targets while improving protection of the poor and continuing to increase public investment.
Revenue: The design of the tax system should be improved to promote growth and labor force participation, while benefiting low- and middle-income households.
9. Italy’s commitment to reduce carbon emissions requires strong policy action. Carbon taxation is the most effective tool. While carbon taxes in Italy are high in some sectors, the bulk of emissions (mostly in electricity) is taxed at low rates. A uniform carbon tax of €70 per ton of CO 2, above which excises should be added to correct for other externalities, would reduce emissions by 20 percent by 2030. It could be phased in gradually (Fiscal Monitor, October 2019). The revenues generated could be used to compensate impacted households or offset distortionary taxes. Well-targeted public investment and incentives, energy price liberalization, and regulatory standards could help promote development of clean technology.
Financial sector measures to increase resilience and support the economy
10. Substantial progress has been made in strengthening the health of banks’ balance sheets. The European and Italian authorities raised prudential requirements and implemented measures to facilitate capitalization, lower non-performing loans (NPLs), improve governance, and encourage consolidation of mutual banks. They took action to restructure or recapitalize several weak banks. As a result, the capitalization and asset quality of the banking sector have improved considerably. For instance, the NPL ratio has more than halved in three years, falling from 16 percent of loans in 2016 to 7.3 percent in September 2019, with NPL sales at or above targets even considering the market strains in 2018-19.
11. However, important challenges remain. The capital ratio (fully loaded Common Equity Tier 1) is about 1.5 percentage points below, and the NPL ratio is over twice, the EU average. Although improving recently, the profitability of Italian banks remains low, like many EU peers. This is particularly the case for small- and mid-sized banks, reflecting limited potential to increase revenue, structurally high operating costs, challenges to business models, and governance weaknesses. Exposures to the Italian sovereign are relatively large. Many banks continue to be heavy users of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations.
12. These challenges highlight the need for further enhancing banking sector resilience. Key recommendations of the IMF’s financial sector assessment program include:
The mission is grateful to the authorities and other interlocutors for their time, helpful discussions, and warm hospitality. The views in this statement also reflect the findings of the 2019 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), which was conducted by the IMF over the period November 2018-March 2019. Countries with financial sectors that are considered systemically important, such as Italy, undertake a mandatory stability assessment every five years.
