IMF Executive Board Concludes Second and Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Mali
IMF News, February 22, 2021
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- Published: February 22, 2021
Executive decision and financing
- The Executive Board completed the second and the third reviews of Mali’s program supported by the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
- The three-year ECF arrangement for Mali is SDR 139.95 million (about US$191.9 million, equivalent to 75 percent of Mali’s quota in the IMF), approved on August 28, 2019.
- The completion of the combined reviews allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 40 million (about US$57.6 million), bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to the equivalent of SDR 80 million (about US$115.3 million).
- The IMF adjusted the program to allow space for economic recovery and to support the government’s pandemic policy response.
- The Executive Board approved waivers of non-observance on performance criteria, modification of targets going forward, and rephasing of structural conditionality.
Policy guidance and reform priorities (statement by Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair)
- “The confluence of health, economic, socio-political and security crises has posed policy challenges. The authorities rightly refocused policy priorities towards combating the health and economic crises, curbing non-priority spending, and temporarily accommodating higher fiscal deficits. The program has been recalibrated to ensure near-term macroeconomic stabilization and medium-term fiscal sustainability, while ensuring that policies remain growth-friendly and pro-poor.”
- “Fiscal policy will support the near-term economic recovery through a more gradual return to the regional WAEMU deficit ceiling. Reforms are needed to increase tax revenues and address emerging structural fiscal pressures on the wage bill and subsidies to public enterprises, in order to safeguard developmental, social, and sustainability objectives. Ensuring that support to households reaches those in need in a timely way remains an important priority.”
- “Structural reforms will support the fiscal effort. The authorities are committed to strengthening revenue mobilization through continued reforms in tax and customs administration. Digitalization will support better revenue administration and public financial management. Reforms to strengthen commitment controls and the treasury single account will help improve the efficiency of cash management.”
- “The authorities are stepping up efforts to enhance governance, transparency, and the business environment. Priorities include reforms of the anticorruption and AML/CFT frameworks and the implementation of the mandatory asset declarations. The transparency commitments related to COVID-19 emergency spending are being implemented and will be deepened through improved reporting of beneficial ownership by companies awarded public contracts. The initiation by the authorities of a Governance Assessment bodes well with future reforms.”
- “The authorities’ strong commitment to reforms and their steadfast implementation will be key to success, and may also help unlock additional donor support.”
Near-term macroeconomic outlook and projections (selected indicators from Table 1)
- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2017: 5.3; 2018: 4.7; 2019: 5.1; 2020: 4.8; 2021: 5.0; 2022: 0.9; 2023: -2.0; 2024: 4.0; 2025: 6.0.
- GDP deflator (annual percentage change): 2017: 1.9; 2018: 1.5; 2019: 2.5; 2020: 2.1; 2021: 1.8; 2022: 2.0; 2023: 2.3.
- Consumer price inflation (average): 2017: 1.7; 2018: -0.4; 2019: -2.9; 2020: 0.6; 2021: 0.7.
- Consumer price inflation (end of period): 2017: 1.1; 2018: 1.0; 2019: -0.8; 2020: -3.3.
- Output gap: 2017: 2.2; 2019: 3.0; 2020: -1.4; 2021: -1.1; 2022: -0.1; 2023: 0.0.
- Broad money (M2) (annual percentage change): 2017: 4.3; 2018: 14.2; 2019: 10.0; 2020: 9.0; 2021: 11.2; 2022: 3.3; 2023: 15.0.
- Credit to the economy (annual percentage change): 2017: 5.4; 2018: 6.1; 2019: 2.7; 2020: 3.7; 2021: 5.6; 2022: 8.1; 2023: 7.1.
- Credit to the government (annual percentage change): 2017: 55.7; 2018: 64.1; 2019: 27.7; 2020: -36.6; 2021: 20.2; 2022: 48.1; 2023: 142.3; 2024: 45.7; 2025: 15.9; 2026: 6.2; 2027: -1.2.
Fiscal accounts and public debt (percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
- Revenue: 2017: 18.4; 2018: 14.3; 2019: 19.5; 2020: 20.5; 2021: 17.9; 2022: 18.6; 2023: 20.7; 2024: 19.7; 2025: 19.8; 2026: 19.9.
- of which: Tax revenue: 2017: 15.2; 2018: 11.9; 2019: 14.6; 2020: 14.8; 2021: 15.5; 2022: 13.3; 2023: 14.1; 2024: 15.7; 2025: 15.1.
- Grants: 2017: 1.6; 2018: 1.2; 2019: 2.4; 2020: 1.4.
- Total expenditure and net lending: 2017: 22.9; 2018: 20.3; 2019: 24.8; 2020: 23.1; 2021: 26.4; 2022: 27.1; 2023: 25.5; 2024: 25.9; 2025: 25.7; 2026: 25.0; 2027: 24.3.
- Overall balance (accrual basis): 2017: -4.7; 2018: -1.7; 2019: -3.5; 2020: -6.2; 2021: -5.5; 2022: -4.5; 2023: -3.0.
- Overall balance (cash basis): 2017: -2.6; 2018: -3.9; 2019: -3.6; 2020: -6.1; 2021: -5.1; 2022: -3.2; 2023: -5.3; 2024: -4.4; 2025: -3.4.
- Public debt (end of period, percent of GDP): 2017: 35.5; 2018: 36.1; 2019: 38.3; 2020: 40.5; 2021: 39.0; 2022: 44.6; 2023: 44.1; 2024: 39.5; 2025: 46.2; 2026: 46.9; 2027: 47.0; 2028: 46.6; 2029: 46.1.
- External public debt (percent of GDP): 2017: 24.5; 2018: 23.4; 2019: 26.3; 2020: 26.1; 2021: 30.1; 2022: 25.6; 2023: 25.8; 2024: 26.0; 2025: 26.6.
- Domestic public debt (percent of GDP): 2017: 11.0; 2018: 12.7; 2019: 12.0; 2020: 14.0; 2021: 12.9; 2022: 14.5; 2023: 17.8; 2024: 13.8; 2025: 20.6; 2026: 21.3.
- Debt service (percent of revenues): 2017: 6.3; 2018: 7.2; 2019: 5.9; 2020: 7.3; 2021: 10.5; 2022: 10.3; 2023: 9.1.
External sector and external balances
- Current account balance, including official transfers (percent of GDP): 2017: -7.3; 2018: -4.9; 2019: -4.8; 2020: -4.6; 2021: -2.4.
- Current account balance, excluding official transfers (percent of GDP): 2017: -12.1; 2018: -9.3; 2019: -9.4; 2020: -9.7; 2021: -8.5; 2022: -7.1; 2023: -4.3; 2024: -5.8; 2025: -6.8; 2026: -7.4; 2027: -7.9.
- Exports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2017: 22.5; 2018: 23.6; 2019: 24.9; 2020: 24.0; 2021: 24.4; 2022: 27.2; 2023: 23.0; 2024: 26.2; 2025: 23.7; 2026: 22.6; 2027: 21.7.
- Imports of goods and services (percent of GDP): 2017: 36.2; 2018: 35.6; 2019: 34.6; 2020: 36.0; 2021: 34.0; 2022: 31.5; 2023: 32.2; 2024: 32.9; 2025: 33.1; 2026: 32.4; 2027: 32.0; 2028: 31.7.
- Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP): 2017: -0.5; 2018: -0.3; 2019: 0.1; 2020: -3.7; 2021: -0.2; 2022: 0.2.
- Terms of trade (deterioration -): 2017: -25.3; 2018: 9.8; 2019: 24.6; 2020: 31.8; 2021: 3.9; 2022: -2.3.
- Real effective exchange rate (depreciation -): 2017: 0.5; 2018: 0.3; 2019: -4.2.
Memorandum items and prices
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 2017: 8,922; 2018: 9,482; 2019: 10,214; 2020: 10,140; 2021: 10,917; 2022: 10,427; 2023: 10,138; 2024: 11,732; 2025: 10,704; 2026: 11,573; 2027: 12,394; 2028: 13,274; 2029: 14,217.
- Nominal GDP (US$ billions): 2017: 16.1; 2018: 16.5; 2019: 17.2.
- Public debt (CFAF billions): 2017: 3,165; 2018: 3,424; 2019: 4,106; 2020: 4,649; 2021: 4,476; 2022: 4,945; 2023: 5,429; 2024: 5,827; 2025: 6,186; 2026: 6,557.
- Overall balance of payments (US$ millions): 2017: -71; 2018: 189; 2019: 451.
- US$ exchange rate (end of period): 2017: 554; 2018: 576; 2019: 590. (For 2020, the latest available data is for November.)
- Gold Price (CFAF billion/ton): 2017: 22.7; 2018: 22.0; 2019: 20.9; 2020: 23.2; 2021: 34.8; 2022: 35.4; 2023: 35.8; 2024: 36.6.
- Cotton price (CFAF/kg): 2017: 1,017; 2018: 1,063; 2019: 956; 2020: 851; 2021: 868; 2022: 971; 2023: 916; 2024: 863; 2025: 861; 2026: 869.
- Petroleum price (crude spot; US$/bbl): 2017: 53; 2018: 68; 2019: 62; 2020: 61; 2021: 58; 2022: 36; 2023: 41; 2024: 55; 2025: 50; 2026: 49; 2027: 48.
Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes Second and Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Mali (Press Release No. 21/45), February 22, 2021.
References
- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg
- The Executive Board
- Guinea-Bissau and the IMF
- Benin and the IMF
- Burkina Faso and the IMF
- Côte d'Ivoire and the IMF
- Mali and the IMF
- Niger and the IMF
- Senegal and the IMF
- Togo and the IMF
- Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- A Factsheet
- Press Releases
- PRESS CENTER
- Press Release No. 19/319),
- https://www.imf.org/en/home
