Opening Remarks at 2021 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture

IMF News, July 28, 2021

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The global growth projection for this year remains "six percent" (same figure projected in April).
Between April and July, the composition of this "six percent" changed: some economies are projected to grow faster, while many emerging and developing economies are projected to grow slower than previously anticipated.
The primary drivers of divergence are "dramatic differences in vaccine availability—thus, infection rates—and availability of fiscal space to act."

Mexico is projected to grow "6.3 percent" this year and "4.2 percent" next year.
These projections represent "an upgrade of more than 1 percent in both cases," attributed to "progress on vaccines and positive spillovers from the strong US recovery."

Central banks responded swiftly at the onset of the pandemic by addressing financial market turmoil and managing an economy put in a standstill.
Required actions included:
- Nimble crisis management.
- Massive policy stimulus.
- Handling complex operational challenges to keep financial systems functioning smoothly.
Key questions for central banks emerging from the crisis:
- How to calibrate the withdrawal of stimulus when models and data are not applicable and uncertainty remains extreme?
- How to act when the extent of scarring is still unknown, and market willingness to finance high public and corporate debt levels could change rapidly?
- What guiding principles should central banks follow to navigate the exit from extraordinary support?

Central banks will face challenges in:
- Calibrating exit strategies amid high uncertainty and unknown scarring.
- Adapting tools to a post-pandemic landscape.
- Dealing with changes in preferences for digital money accelerated by the pandemic.
The speech poses forward-looking questions:
- How will central banks adapt their tools?
- What will be the biggest challenges for central banks in the future?

Career timeline highlights:
- Joined the Bank of Mexico in "1991"; held positions including Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Director of Economic Studies.
- Became general director of the National Pension Fund of State Workers in "2007".
- Head of the Debt Management Office at Mexico's Ministry of Finance (date not specified in the text).
- Headed Mexico's Export-Import Bank until "2017", then returned to the Bank of Mexico and took the helm in "2018".
Notable actions and recognition:
- Navigated high inflation at the start of his term and "successfully reduced" it.
- Led pandemic crisis response at the central bank through "a well calibrated loosening of monetary policy, and through clear communications and strengthened transparency, including by the publication of inflation reports."
- Named Central Banker of the Year in "2021" by Central Banking Journal.

Source: Opening Remarks at 2021 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture — IMF (July 28, 2021).