IMF Executive Board Approves New US$455 Million Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for the Republic of Congo

IMF News, January 22, 2022

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Published: January 22, 2022

Approval and financing

Publication date: January 21, 2022.
The IMF Executive Board approved a 36-month arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in an amount equivalent to SDR 324.0 million (about US$455 million or 200 percent of the Republic of Congo’s quota in the Fund).
The Executive Board’s decision enables an immediate disbursement equivalent to SDR 64.80 million (about US$90 million).
The arrangement aims to help the country maintain macroeconomic stability, support economic recovery in the context of the pandemic, and catalyze financial support from official donors.

Macroeconomic outlook and risks

New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic are creating headwinds for the nascent economic recovery from the deep recession spurred by the pandemic’s onset and related oil price shocks.
Key downside risks identified: possible worsening of the pandemic, continued volatility in oil prices and production, climate change shocks, and weaker-than-expected reform implementation.
Expected strengthening: “The Republic of Congo’s economy is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, supported by vaccine rollout, social spending, and domestic arrears payments.”

Policy priorities and structural reforms

Reducing debt vulnerabilities while implementing fiscal policy that supports a strong and equitable economic recovery will be key.
Fiscal measures emphasized:
- Ensure adequate fiscal space for critical social spending and infrastructure investment.
- Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization and public spending efficiency, including through enhanced public investment management.
- Improve debt management, including to ensure steady repayment of debt and arrears; authorities are taking steps to finalize external debt restructuring.
Structural reform priorities:
- Operationalize the new anti-corruption architecture.
- Implement energy sector reforms.
- Strengthen public financial management.
- Enhance financial stability and inclusion.
Purpose of reforms: improve governance and the business environment, address challenges from climate change and the global transition to low-carbon economies, raise confidence, and reduce long-standing structural bottlenecks.
Statement on program objectives: “The authorities’ program, supported by a new three-year Extended Credit Facility arrangement, aims to maintain macroeconomic stability during the recovery, reduce fragilities, and put the country on a medium-term path to higher, more resilient, and inclusive growth. The arrangement is also expected to catalyze development partner support.”

Selected economic and financial indicators (Table 1 highlights)

GDP at constant prices (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -8.1
- 2021 Est.: -0.2
- 2022 Proj.: 2.4
- 2023 Proj.: 2.9
- 2024 Proj.: 6.5
- 2025 Proj.: 2.2
- 2026 Proj.: 1.2
Oil GDP at constant prices (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -8.5
- 2021 Est.: -2.9
- 2022 Proj.: 1.0
- 2023 Proj.: 1.5
- 2024 Proj.: 11.5
- 2025 Proj.: -2.4
- 2026 Proj.: -7.1
Non-oil GDP at constant prices (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -8.0
- 2021 Est.: 0.9
- 2022 Proj.: 3.3
- 2023 Proj.: 3.7
- 2024 Proj.: 4.0
- 2025 Proj.: 4.4
- 2026 Proj.: 4.8
GDP at current prices (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -20.8
- 2021 Est.: 17.5
- 2022 Proj.: 17.3
- 2023 Proj.: 2.8
- 2024 Proj.: 6.9
- 2025 Proj.: 3.1
GDP deflator (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -13.8
- 2021 Est.: 17.7
- 2022 Proj.: 0.8
- 2023 Proj.: -0.1
- 2024 Proj.: 0.4
- 2025 Proj.: 1.8
- 2026 Proj.: 2.0
Consumer prices (period average):
- 2020: 1.4
- 2021 Est.: 2.1
- 2022 Proj.: 2.7
External sector:
- Exports, f.o.b. (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -36.2
- 2021 Est.: 44.2
- 2022 Proj.: 0.5
- 2023 Proj.: -3.1
- 2024 Proj.: 5.8
- 2025 Proj.: -4.3
- 2026 Proj.: -4.9
- Imports, f.o.b. (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -25.3
- 2021 Est.: 14.7
- 2022 Proj.: 13.2
- 2023 Proj.: 13.5
- 2024 Proj.: 6.8
- 2025 Proj.: 8.8
- 2026 Proj.: 0.3
- Export volume (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -2.2
- 2021 Est.: 4.7
- 2022 Proj.: 2.5
- 2023 Proj.: 6.7
- 2024 Proj.: 5.3
- Import volume (annual percentage change):
- 2020: -19.8
- 2021 Est.: -6.6
- 2022 Proj.: -9.9
- 2023 Proj.: 10.8
- 2024 Proj.: 11.1
- 2025 Proj.: 3.6
- 2026 Proj.: -3.0
- Terms of trade (deterioration - , annual percentage change):
- 2020: -27.8
- 2021 Est.: 12.0
- 2022 Proj.: -0.8
- 2023 Proj.: -1.4
- 2024 Proj.: -4.4
- 2025 Proj.: -13.1
Current account balance (percent of GDP):
- 2020: 12.1
- 2021 Est.: 13.4
- 2022 Proj.: 5.5
- 2023 Proj.: -4.0
Net foreign assets (percent of GDP):
- 2020: 11.0
- 2021 Est.: -7.5
- 2022 Proj.: 32.9
- 2023 Proj.: 13.7
- 2024 Proj.: 15.2
- 2025 Proj.: 23.5
External public debt (percent of GDP):
- 2020: 62.4
- 2021 Est.: 49.6
- 2022 Proj.: 50.1
- 2023 Proj.: 46.0
- 2024 Proj.: 43.3
- 2025 Proj.: 38.7
- 2026 Proj.: 34.9
- (additional row) 33.2
Monetary sector:
- Broad money (annual percentage change):
- 2020: 18.0
- 2021 Est.: 32.7
- 2022 Proj.: 27.2
- 2023 Proj.: 10.5
- 2024 Proj.: 8.3
- 2025 Proj.: 12.4
- 2026 Proj.: 14.2
- Credit to the private sector (annual percentage change):
- 2020: 3.5
- 2021 Est.: 4.1
- 2022 Proj.: 4.5
- 2023 Proj.: 8.0
- 2024 Proj.: 9.4
Investment and saving (percent of GDP):
- Gross national saving:
- 2020: 22.5
- 2021 Est.: 33.5
- 2022 Proj.: 34.4
- 2023 Proj.: 29.3
- 2024 Proj.: 25.2
- 2025 Proj.: 23.4
- 2026 Proj.: 21.4
- (additional row) 21.7
- Gross investment:
- 2020: 22.6
- 2021 Est.: 21.3
- 2022 Proj.: 21.0
- 2023 Proj.: 23.8
- 2024 Proj.: 24.9
- 2025 Proj.: 24.8
- 2026 Proj.: 25.4
- (additional row) 26.0
Central government finances (percent of non-oil GDP, unless otherwise indicated):
- Total revenue:
- 2020: 31.1
- 2021 Est.: 36.2
- 2022 Proj.: 38.2
- 2023 Proj.: 39.8
- 2024 Proj.: 37.6
- 2025 Proj.: 35.4
- 2026 Proj.: 33.0
- Oil revenue:
- 2020: 15.3
- 2021 Est.: 21.6
- 2022 Proj.: 22.9
- 2023 Proj.: 23.2
- 2024 Proj.: 20.8
- 2025 Proj.: 20.6
- 2026 Proj.: 17.9
- (additional row) 15.1
- Nonoil revenue (including grants):
- 2020: 15.8
- 2021 Est.: 14.6
- 2022 Proj.: 16.6
- 2023 Proj.: 16.8
- 2024 Proj.: 17.0
- Total expenditure and net lending:
- 2020: 32.8
- 2021 Est.: 33.8
- 2022 Proj.: 36.0
- 2023 Proj.: 35.5
- 2024 Proj.: 35.6
- 2025 Proj.: 34.6
- 2026 Proj.: 34.1
- Current expenditure:
- 2020: 27.8
- 2021 Est.: 28.2
- 2022 Proj.: 31.0
- 2023 Proj.: 28.0
- 2024 Proj.: 27.1
- 2025 Proj.: 26.2
- Capital (and net lending):
- 2020: 5.0
- 2021 Est.: 5.6
- 2022 Proj.: 7.3
- 2023 Proj.: 7.6
- 2024 Proj.: 7.4
- 2025 Proj.: 7.8
- 2026 Proj.: 7.9
- Overall balance (deficit -, payment order basis):
- 2020: -1.7
- 2021 Est.: 4.3
- 2022 Proj.: -1.1
- Overall balance (deficit -, payment order basis, percent of GDP):
- 2020: -1.2
- Non-oil primary balance (- = deficit):
- 2020: -15.2
- 2021 Est.: -17.0
- 2022 Proj.: -17.1
- 2023 Proj.: -15.7
- 2024 Proj.: -15.3
- 2025 Proj.: -14.4
- 2026 Proj.: -13.3
- Basic primary fiscal balance (- = deficit)1:
- 2020: 0.2
- 2021 Est.: 5.7
- 2022 Proj.: 7.5
- 2023 Proj.: 5.4
- 2024 Proj.: 6.2
- Basic non-oil primary balance (- = deficit)2:
- 2020: -14.7
- 2021 Est.: -16.5
- 2022 Proj.: -12.7
- 2023 Proj.: -12.1
- 2024 Proj.: -11.3
- 2025 Proj.: -11.4
- 2026 Proj.: -10.9
- Reference fiscal balance (percent of GDP)3:
- 2020: 2.6
- 2021 Est.: -0.5
- 2022 Proj.: -2.7
- 2023 Proj.: -1.9
- Primary balance (percent of GDP):
- 2020: 0.1
- 2021 Est.: 4.2
- 2022 Proj.: 1.3
- Financing gap (in percent of GDP):
- 2020: 0.0
- Total public debt (percent of GDP)4:
- 2020: 110.1
- 2021 Est.: 84.2
- 2022 Proj.: 93.5
- 2023 Proj.: 89.3
- 2024 Proj.: 83.6
- 2025 Proj.: 74.9
- 2026 Proj.: 71.9
- (additional row) 72.1
- External public debt service (percent of total government revenue excluding grants):
- 2020: 42.0
- 2021 Est.: 29.0
- 2022 Proj.: 33.4
- 2023 Proj.: 28.6
- 2024 Proj.: 24.0
- 2025 Proj.: 20.3
Nominal values (Billions of CFA francs, unless otherwise indicated):
- Nominal GDP:
- 2020: 5,937
- 2021 Est.: 6,976
- 2022 Proj.: 6,962
- 2023 Proj.: 7,189
- 2024 Proj.: 7,390
- 2025 Proj.: 7,899
- 2026 Proj.: 8,146
- (additional row) 8,370
- Nominal oil GDP:
- 2020: 1,691
- 2021 Est.: 2,607
- 2022 Proj.: 2,593
- 2023 Proj.: 2,550
- 2024 Proj.: 2,436
- 2025 Proj.: 2,591
- 2026 Proj.: 2,438
- (additional row) 2,208
- Nominal non-oil GDP:
- 2020: 4,245
- 2021 Est.: 4,369
- 2022 Proj.: 4,639
- 2023 Proj.: 4,955
- 2024 Proj.: 5,308
- 2025 Proj.: 5,708
- 2026 Proj.: 6,162
- Nominal GDP in US$ (millions):
- 2020: 10,329
- 2021 Est.: 12,744
- 2022 Proj.: 12,676
- 2023 Proj.: 13,235
- 2024 Proj.: 13803
- 2025 Proj.: 14934
- 2026 Proj.: 15,568
- (additional row) 16,122
- Congolese oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel):
- 2020: 39
- 2021 Est.: 65
- 2022 Proj.: 64
- 2023 Proj.: 61
- 2024 Proj.: 59
- 2025 Proj.: 57
- 2026 Proj.: 56
- Brent Price (U.S dollars per barrel):
- 2020: 42
- 2021 Est.: 67
- 2022 Proj.: 66
- 2023 Proj.: 63
- 2024 Proj.: 58
- Oil production (Millions of barrels):
- 2020: 112
- 2021 Est.: 109
- 2022 Proj.: 110
- 2023 Proj.: 125
- 2024 Proj.: 122
- 2025 Proj.: 113
- 2026 Proj.: (blank in source)
Notes from table:
- Sources: Congolese authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
- Footnotes:

1. Revenue excluding grants minus total expenditures (excluding interest payments and foreign-financed public investment). 2. Non-oil revenue excluding grants minus total expenditures excluding interest payments and foreign-financed investment. 3. Overall balance minus 20 percent of oil revenues and minus 80 percent of the oil revenue in excess of the average observed during the three previous years. 4. The 2020 stock of debt has been revised upward since the 2021 Article IV to reflect data and coverage revisions.

Source: IMF press release, January 21, 2022.