IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Equatorial Guinea

IMF News, June 9, 2023

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Real GDP growth estimated at 2.2 percent in 2022, the first expansion since 2014, reflecting higher global hydrocarbon prices and Bata reconstruction.
Inflation reached 4.8 percent in 2022 on account of high food import prices.
Fiscal surplus of 10.1 percent of GDP in 2022, with a significant part of the hydrocarbon revenue windfall saved.
Non-oil primary fiscal deficit increased to 9.9 percent of GDP in 2022 from 8.7 percent of GDP in 2021.
Banking sector prudential indicators weakened.
External current account significantly strengthened.

For 2023, real economic activity is projected to decline by 6.4 percent, a more pronounced recession than initially envisaged, reflecting a more severe impact of the incident to the Zafiro oil field.
Inflation is projected to moderate to 2.8 percent in 2023.
Non-oil primary fiscal deficit is projected to be 11.5 percent of GDP in 2023.
Over the medium term, the economy is projected to continue to decline because of the shrinking role of the hydrocarbon sector.

Promote economic diversification to respond to shrinking hydrocarbon role.
Improve the business climate.
Boost human capital and social spending while maintaining fiscal sustainability.
Continue governance reforms to increase transparency and fight corruption.
Settle domestic arrears.
Address longstanding banking sector vulnerabilities.
Increase transparency in the extractive industry, including by pursuing EITI membership.
Make further progress in operationalizing the anti-corruption legislation.
Enhance mobilization of non-hydrocarbon revenue.
Shift public spending towards programs that support social inclusion.
IMF staff will continue to support the authorities in designing and implementing their reform agenda.

Mission conducted during May 29–June 7, 2023, led by Mesmin Koulet-Vickot to update macroeconomic projections and take stock of authorities’ policy vision and priorities.
At the end of the visit, Mr. Koulet-Vickot issued a statement summarizing findings and projections.
IMF team met with President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and senior officials including, among others, First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Education, University Teaching and Sports Clemente Engonga Nguema Onguene; Minister of Planning and Economic Diversification Gabriel Mbaga Obiang Lima; Minister of Finance and Budget Fortunato Ofa Mbo Nchama; Minister of Health and Social Welfare Dámaso Mitoha Ondo Ayecaba; and other senior government officials.

Press Release No. 23/204 — IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Equatorial Guinea, June 9, 2023.