Mission Concluding Statement 

Sarajevo:

Growth has proven resilient supported by expansionary fiscal policies, but inflation has picked up, and risks are elevated due to external shocks and domestic political tensions. Progress towards EU accession could boost confidence, but political hurdles persist. Fiscal policy should focus on restoring buffers and improving spending quality. The authorities should refrain from further discretionary measures that widen the deficit and strengthen contingency planning. Both entities face large financing needs that are expected to be met through external borrowing, with a Eurobond issuance in FBiH and bilateral loans in the RS, along with some domestic issuances. The authorities should prepare contingency plans in case of financing shortfalls. Reforms, including a review of public employment, wages, and social benefits are needed to achieve a debt-stabilizing primary balance.

To safeguard monetary stability, it is essential to maintain the currency board and uphold the independence of the central bank. The authorities should continue to closely monitor financial sector risks and enhance crisis preparedness. The establishment of a country-wide financial stability fund, which would facilitate bank restructuring and provide liquidity on an exceptional basis, would substantially strengthen the financial safety net. To accelerate growth, the authorities need to speed up reforms to improve fiscal governance, protect financial integrity, fight corruption, and step up digitalization. Transitioning from coal to green energy along with preparing for the introduction of EU carbon taxes are major challenges ahead. Placing BiH on a higher growth path and providing its people with more opportunities will speed up income convergence with the EU and reduce emigration.

Recent developments and outlook

Despite a challenging environment, the economy has been resilient. Growth accelerated to 2.5 percent in 2024 from 2 percent in 2023, with strong domestic demand outweighing a decline in net exports. Household consumption was supported by strong growth in credit and remittances; private investment accelerated. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in Q4:2024, with real wages growing at an annual rate of 8 percent. The current account deficit widened to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024 from 2¼ percent in 2023, reflecting a drought-induced decline in electricity exports, weaker demand for exports, and higher imports associated with strong domestic demand. Inflation fell to 1.7 percent in 2024 from 6¼ percent in 2023, owing to a slowdown in fuel and utilities prices. However, since end-2024, inflation has been rising again to 3.7 percent (yoy) in May, driven mainly by higher food prices.

The economic outlook remains uncertain amid elevated downside risks. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2025 supported by an improvement in net exports, a stronger fiscal impulse, and private consumption. However, the outlook is vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks. A worsening in geopolitical tensions and a resulting slowdown in Europe, or increased commodity price volatility could raise food and energy prices, lower BiH exports and remittances, and dampen domestic demand. An escalation of political tensions could further increase economic fragmentation and weigh on investor confidence and growth. In the absence of faster reform progress, medium-term growth is expected to remain around 3 percent—insufficient for rapid income convergence with the EU. Inflation is expected to remain elevated during 2025, and as food inflation eases, gradually decline from 2026, approaching the ECB target of 2 percent.  

Fiscal policy and reforms

Fiscal performance in 2024 was stronger than expected. The general government deficit turned out to be 1¾ percent of GDP, the same as in 2023, but better than anticipated at the time of the 2024 AIV Consultation. The authorities leveraged a large increase in tax revenues to boost spending on wages, goods and services, social benefits, and public investments.

With fiscal policy expected to ease in 2025, the authorities should avoid further discretionary measures and strengthen contingency planning. Entity budgets and subsequently-adopted measures envisage increases in public wages and pensions, reflecting both legally-mandated indexation and discretionary changes. The widening deficit, which could reach 2.6 percent of GDP, is expected to be mainly financed mostly through foreign borrowing, as well as domestic banks. The authorities should avoid policies that further expand the deficit as this would likely put upward pressure on rising prices and widen external imbalances. Moreover, given mounting downside risks, the authorities should aim to build cash buffers and develop contingency plans. Depending on the severity of a potential shock the authorities should use the available buffers and activate contingency plans.

Over the medium term, the authorities are advised to place fiscal deficits on a firmly declining path starting from 2026, build fiscal buffers, and enhance the economy’s growth potential. Persistently high deficits risk placing public debt on an upward trajectory and may worsen financing terms. Fiscal consolidation should begin in 2026, with the goal of reducing the primary deficit to its debt-stabilizing level, while improving the quality of spending and rebuilding treasury balances. Priority should be given to spending measures that enhance efficiency—particularly by rationalizing the public wage bill through functional reviews and improving the targeting of social assistance programs. These measures should be complemented by revenue mobilization efforts, including broadening the tax base through the reduction of exemptions and development of new revenue sources, such as taxing dividends. Any fiscally costly policies should be strictly avoided or offset. Given significant infrastructure gaps, increasing both the level and quality of public investment should be a key objective.

Fiscal consolidation efforts should be accompanied by institutional and structural fiscal reforms. Strengthening fiscal discipline will require a review of existing fiscal rules to assess whether they are appropriately designed to meet macroeconomic management and developmental needs and whether there are sufficient institutional arrangements in place to ensure that they are met. The recent materialization of contingent liabilities related to international arbitration cases underscores the urgency of enhancing fiscal risk management. This includes timely identification of all sources of fiscal risks, assessment of risk magnitude and likelihood, development of mitigation strategies, and reinforcement of the institutional framework. In this context, improving the oversight and governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is crucial. Reducing inefficiencies in public investment management remains a priority. This involves better project selection, rigorous appraisal processes, efficient and transparency procurement, and stronger portfolio management and oversight. Finally, implementing robust beneficiary registries would improve the targeting of social assistance programs by reducing inclusion and exclusion errors, improving efficiency, and enhancing transparency and accountability.

Currency board arrangement and financial sector policies and reforms

For three decades, the currency board arrangement (CBA) has been a cornerstone of macroeconomic stability and must be preserved. The CBA has ensured the stability of the domestic currency, while reinforcing policy credibility and fiscal discipline. Benefiting from strong institutional independence, the Central Bank (CBBH), has consistently maintained net foreign exchange reserves well above the level of its monetary liabilities. Safeguarding the CBBH’s independence is critical to preserving the credibility and effectiveness of the CBA.

The CBBH should further strengthen the reserve requirement framework. In line with IMF advice, the CBBH applies differentiated remuneration rates on reserve requirements for foreign and domestic currency liabilities. Falling euro area interest rates offer an opportunity to reduce the gap with CBBH remuneration rates on required reserves and the opportunity costs for holding reserves. A further comprehensive review of the reserve requirement framework, with technical assistance from the IMF, and implementation of previous recommendations would further strengthen the CBBH’s capacity to achieve its policy objectives.  

Sustained strong credit growth calls for close monitoring of systemic risks and continued efforts to safeguard banking sector resilience. Credit expansion has been driven by rising wages, declining lending rates, and a booming real estate market. Despite this rapid growth, banks remain well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, while the share of non-performing loans continues to decline. Nonetheless, vigilance is warranted. The authorities should closely monitor financial sector developments and be prepared to deploy macroprudential tools to address risks from credit growth and rising real estate prices. Following introduction of additional capital buffers for systemic risk (SyRB) and domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), the macroprudential toolkit should be expanded to include a countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and borrower-based measures such as limits on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and debt-service to income (DSTI) ratios. To preserve resilience, reducing the regulatory capital requirement from 12 to 10 percent as planned from end-2026 should be avoided. The authorities are also advised to avoid further extensions of temporary regulatory measures that aim to contain lending rate increases and to remove limits on bank exposures to foreign governments and central banks.

Progress made on coordination on financial sector issues, under the leadership of the CBBH, should be maintained. Regular financial sector coordination meetings strengthen inter-agency cooperation and help ensure smooth information exchange. Additionally, the authorities are encouraged to establish a country-wide Financial Stability Fund to support orderly bank resolution and to cooperate across state-level institutions and both entities to request a new IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)—already requested by the CBBH—to comprehensively assess resilience and outline a roadmap for further reform, including in the context of EU accession.

We commend the CBBH and the other relevant authorities for their strong efforts to integrate BiH with the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). SEPA integration will enable faster and more convenient euro payments across borders within the SEPA area, lower transaction costs, and foster deeper trade and economic integration within Europe. It is crucial that the relevant legislative amendments are adopted in a timely manner to pave the way for the submission of the application for SEPA membership. In addition, the development of the TIPS Clone—the project implemented by the CBBH in cooperation with the Bank of Italy—will provide infrastructure for instant payments.

Structural reforms

Advancing toward EU membership will require a stronger, more coordinated, and results-driven approach. Persistent political fragmentation, lack of consensus among governing bodies, and limited administrative capacity continue to obstruct the adoption and execution of key reforms. In this context, timely adoption and implementation of the EU Growth Plan offers a valuable opportunity. Reforms under the growth plan will align BiH more closely with the EU single market, advance EU accession, and unlock €1 billion in additional financing over 2025–27 period.

The authorities should accelerate energy sector reforms to reduce fiscal risks and prepare for implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Key reforms include phasing out electricity subsidies over the medium term—while protecting vulnerable households—and advancing efficiency improvements in energy SOEs. CBAM charges are set to take effect from 2026, with the largest anticipated impact on the BiH electricity sector. To mitigate this, it is essential to establish a domestic power exchange system and an agreed roadmap and legislative framework for introduction of carbon pricing at the state level. These steps would enable BiH to unlock new investment in renewable electricity generation, reducing the overall burden of CBAM. Implementation of carbon pricing will allow BiH to retain carbon-related revenues domestically and potentially secure a CBAM exemption for electricity exports to the EU.

Reforms that tackle the labor market, governance, and digitalization are also crucial. The authorities should take a structured approach to minimum wage increases that avoids high, frequent, and ad hoc adjustments. Complementary reforms are needed to address low labor market participation (particularly among women) and high youth unemployment. The authorities should urgently implement MONEYVAL priority actions to avoid being grey listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in early 2026. Grey listing could impose significant economic costs through reduced investment, delays in international payments, and increased transaction costs. Finally, developing digital identity and trust services, and providing government e-services, would strengthen the business environment.

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The mission thanks the authorities and all other counterparts for their hospitality and for the constructive and insightful discussions in Sarajevo and Banja Luka.