Mission Concluding Statement 

Washington, DC.

Curaçao’s economic activity expanded by 5 percent in 2024, as strong tourism performance trickled into the wider economy. Stayover arrivals, growing at double digits, continued to outperform Caribbean peers and carried over to other sectors, including whole trade, real estate, and construction. Mostly related to holiday homes and hotels, construction was further fueled by strong mortgage growth and complemented by a resumption of public investments under the Road Maintenance Plan. Average headline inflation declined to 2.6 percent in 2024 from 3.5 percent in 2023, in line with global oil prices and lower US inflation. Real wages increased for the first time in five years but job creation continued to be dominated by informal construction and tourism-related sectors while formal employment declined. The primary surplus continued its upward trajectory on the back of increased tax collection on goods and services. The current account deficit widened due to higher merchandise imports, mainly related to construction activity.

The government is pursuing an ambitious agenda to steer a now tourism-led economy, amidst heightened global uncertainty. Mindful of tourism saturation and a decoupling of local living standards, the authorities strive to improve social conditions while generating sustainable and green growth amid safeguarding solid public finances. The near doubling of the tourism footprint within five years brought profound structural shifts to Curaçao’s economy, including the decline in manufacturing and rise in services, lower overall wages, higher informality, and greater reliance on – more regressive – indirect taxation. Policy responses need to shift accordingly. Priorities are rightly focused on upgrading tourist experiences and diversification, improving skills and labor market conditions, and reforming the tax system in an equitable way while addressing social spending pressures. The administration has delivered on a first round of targeted, one-off pension increases this year, continued reforms to contain health costs, expanded investment in education infrastructure, and came closer to its renewables target with the opening of the latest wind park in 2024. The landspakket, a structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020, continues to guide structural reforms.

Outlook and Risks

Growth is projected to moderate to 4 percent in 2025, balancing domestic impulses and heightened global uncertainty, before gradually converging to 2 percent over the medium term. Further expansion of stayover tourism and construction activity will continue to support growth in 2025, along with fiscal expansion driven by higher public investments. Potential negative effects of slowing global demand and heightened uncertainty would dampen tourism flows towards the end of 2025 and 2026. Growth is expected to moderate to 2 percent over the medium term, given saturation in tourism and slower global demand, while public capital spending would be carried forward, including in road infrastructure and the energy value chain. Headline inflation is projected to stabilize at 2.5 percent in 2025, subject to oil price-related uncertainty. Fiscal accounts would remain in surplus, fully compliant with the fiscal rule, allowing the government to partially settle a large bullet loan in 2025 with own liquid reserves, thereby accelerating the impressive downward trajectory of debt. The current account deficit would decline in the medium term but remain elevated.

Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. External risks include trade policy and investment shocks, which could induce higher inflation and lower external demand, adversely impacting tourism arrivals. Domestic upside risks include faster-than-expected advances in the green hydrogen value chain project and development of other energy sources. On the downside, lower-than-expected disbursements in public investments and delays in infrastructure improvements could set back the expected increase in potential growth from the expansion of hotel capacities. Continued high growth in mortgage credit fueling rising house prices could lead to financial sector as well as household balance sheet vulnerabilities. Buffers include access to favorable refinancing conditions on the Dutch capital market, subject to compliance with the fiscal rule, which grants the island substantial fiscal space, notably for capital and emergency spending.

Tailoring Fiscal and Structural Policies to a Tourism-led Economy

Safeguarding Medium-term Fiscal Sustainability

Reaching the medium-term debt target and further sustaining growth will require weighing the need to boost investments and address social spending pressures while reforming the tax system in an equitable manner.  

Advancing healthcare reforms is an urgent priority to restore the sector’s financial sustainability and limit medium-term fiscal risks. Annual deficits of the SVB healthcare fund amounted to around 5 percent of GDP over the past years, excluding central government transfers, with an additional 1 percent of GDP annual deficit by the Curaçao Medical Center. Transfers to the latter were recently increased to better cover operating costs and invest in new medical equipment, but the health system’s overall finances remain unsustainable. Curaçao’s health expenses, around 13 percent of GDP, stand out relative to regional peers and surpass the OECD average. Possible efficiency gains on the spending side would include additional volume and price measures for pharmaceuticals, re-evaluation of laboratory service tariffs, further expansion of primary care to contain hospital visits, and improvements in preventive care, with the latter likely to materialize over the longer horizon. Revenue reform options would include a broadening of the contributor base, e.g., via the inclusion of migrant workers, increasing co-payments for higher-income households, allowing for price differentiation for the privately insured, exploring options to charge for add-on services, with a possible secondary, private insurance market for these services, and expanding the potential in medical tourism. 

The authorities’ plans to adjust pension benefits for lower-income households in a fiscally responsible manner are welcome and should be accompanied by widening the contribution base. Staff welcomes the intention to reassess benefit levels, given the pausing of indexation and a decline in real per capita benefits by 23 percent between 2016 and 2024. Applying inflation indexation to residents’ pensions only would allow for a broadly balanced budget of the old-age pension scheme (before central government transfers). Considerations to providing a supplement for low-income pensioners, which could cost around ½ percent of GDP per year, should be partially financed by broadening the contributor base. Legalizing predominantly young migrant workers and providing incentives for them and their employers to formalize (see below) would increase revenues by about 0.3 percent of GDP. Ensuring longer-term sustainability of social insurances would likely imply tapping general budget resources, which could be expanded with selected measures while avoiding earmarking (see below). Meanwhile, the current draft law to make second-pillar occupational pension plans mandatory would reduce reliance on old-age pensions and increase private savings, which would also help alleviate the sizable current account deficit.

The authorities envisage the introduction of a VAT while continuing the modernization of the tax authority and improving revenue collection. Given Curaçao’s already significant tax burden and the recent expansion of direct taxation from a pre-pandemic average of 11 percent of GDP to 14 percent of GDP in 2024, plans to design the envisaged VAT reform in a revenue-neutral and equity-enhancing way are welcome. Expanding property taxation on second homes should be prioritized, as well as the purchase and implementation of digital infrastructure to modernize Curaçao’s tax system. Further considerations to introduce a tourism fee (by 2026), end tax holidays on import duties, and adjust permitting fees would lift revenues and contribute to compensating for potential pension increases.

Further efforts are needed to boost investments and improve government service delivery. While capacity constraints were successfully addressed in the ramp-up of investments in 2024, including by hiring external project managers, capacity in planning and execution must be strengthened further to administer the needed investment increase of 2-3 percent of GDP in the coming years, including via a centralized investment planning unit. Implementing multi-year project budgeting and establishing a transparent procurement system will be critical to improve execution, ensure the efficient allocation of financing resources, and grant space to a gradual inclusion of adaptation investments against damage from sea level rise. Efforts to render health and pension spending as well as goods and services taxation more equitable hinge on improving means-testing and maintaining a state-of-the-art registry for lower-income households.  

Labor Market Policies to Address Informality and Improve Education

Informality could be addressed by strengthening incentives for formal work, improving enforcement and monitoring, and tightening eligibility criteria for receiving benefits. Decomposing changes in the formal workforce over the past decade, the strong decline in formal employment was mostly driven by a drop in registered jobs among men, especially in prime working age. Half of this decline cannot be explained by demographics, migration, or unemployment, and is likely attributed to the transition to informality. Tourism and construction sectors offer relatively more opportunities for informal work, making it harder to design the right incentives for formalization. Incentivizing formality, however, is crucial to maintaining government revenues and ensuring social protection for workers, and could be fostered by: facilitating access to education, increasing formal sector productivity, introducing more in-work benefits for workers with incomes between minimum and median wage, and stricter eligibility criteria for monthly assistance, along with strengthening enforcement and monitoring.

Skill deterioration compounded by population aging is a key drag on long-term potential growth. The 2023 census showed that education levels of new entrants to the labor force are below the level of the pre-retirement cohort, and young employees tend to work in more precarious positions. Ongoing investments in education, in line with landspakket recommendations, including in schools’ physical as well as digital infrastructure, are very welcome. Recent initiatives to attract graduates back to the island, including with tax incentives, and an expedited labor permitting process for high-skill workers are important steps in the right direction. These could be complemented by vocational training to lift the overall skill level and reduce skill mismatches, in line with government’s proposed stimulation package with incentives for employer-led vocational education. Integrating migrants into the workforce would grant them perspectives to grow and invest in their skills.

Fostering Competitiveness and Diversification

Bracing for slower growth and mindful of market saturation and the global context, the authorities’ focus is rightly on tourism value added and diversification of source markets. Roads and transportation are among the key bottlenecks of the island, and more public investments are needed to improve the connectivity within the island for tourists to venture out. Public and private investments should also be directed to maritime infrastructure to attract more yacht tourists and move up the tourism value chain. Increasing the number of taxi licenses is welcome and will improve tourist experiences through better mobility. Efforts to tap markets in South America have proven successful, and new flight routes opened from Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia, countries with a large consumer base and rising purchasing power.

Fostering non-tourism sectors in areas of competitive advantage would help build resilience against global shocks and attract additional investments. Building on recent successful reforms to expedite business permits and promote digitalization, more progress is needed to achieve the authorities’ goals as outlined in the National Export Strategy. Curaçao’s connection to a new submarine cable throughout the Caribbean and Miami from 2027 onwards could help expand the island’s data center industry – conditional on sufficient absorption capacity of the electricity grid and a moderation in electricity prices, which remain among the highest in the region. Planned investments in the grid by Aqualectra would be supported by funding from the Netherlands and provide the basis for lifting renewables electricity production to 70 percent by 2027 from around 50 percent currently. The envisaged floating offshore wind park of 3-10 GW would help cover Curaçao’s entire electricity demand and create new export opportunities, in addition to exploratory investments in other energy sources.

In the presence of global uncertainty, diversification of trade as well as regional integration are key for mitigating Curaçao’s exposure to external shocks. Curaçao’s imports remain concentrated on advanced markets, providing ample room to expand goods imports from neighboring countries, such as Brazil and Colombia. As a new associate CARICOM member and acknowledging limitation of independent trade policy given Kingdom laws, Curaçao should continue strengthening regional cooperation and trade integration with neighboring states.

The authorities’ commitment to lower corruption vulnerabilities are welcome. The online gaming law has been approved by parliament in end-2024, an important step towards meeting the landspakket’s rule of law target. Curaçao’s recent accession to the UN Convention Against Corruption and delisting from the EU grey list of non-cooperative jurisdictions, following key legal updates in 2024, is another step in the right direction and opens doors for further international cooperation and bilateral tax treaties, as pursued by the authorities. The mutual evaluations of the AML/CFT frameworks for both Curaçao and Sint Maarten are underway, with results expected to be published in mid-July 2025.

The Monetary Union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten

The external balance of the Union is expected to improve, following a mild deterioration in 2024. The Union’s current account deficit widened to around 17 percent of GDP in 2024 driven by higher imports, mainly related to construction on Curaçao, and despite strong growth in tourism receipts. Going forward, stronger travel receipts, moderation in construction-related imports, and an increase in renewables would support a contraction of the Union’s current account deficit towards 10 percent of GDP in the medium term. The deficit will continue to be financed by private investment inflows and decumulation of assets abroad. The stock of international reserves would remain broadly stable and adequate over the medium term. Given still sizable deficits and a sustained real effective exchange rate appreciation, staff’s preliminary assessment suggests that the external position in 2024 was weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in Curaçao and broadly in line in Sint Maarten, albeit subject to high uncertainty given persistent measurement biases. The assessment for the Union is the same as for Curaçao due to its larger size and current account deficits.

The monetary policy stance is appropriate and continues to support the peg. Following developments in the US, the CBCS cut its benchmark pledging rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in September and November 2024 to 4.75 percent, and has kept it unchanged since then, in line with the pegged exchange rate regime. Transmission to banking sector interest rates continues to be weak, as deposit rates stayed broadly constant throughout the recent tightening and easing cycles, with a mild uptick in late 2023 driven by time deposits, and Union lending rates declined between 2018 and end 2024. Excess liquidity is the key impediment to the transmission, further exacerbated by the absence of interbank and government securities markets.

With lending rates declining, credit growth has accelerated, entirely driven by mortgages in Curaçao. Mortgage credit in the union, the second highest in the Caribbean, has been growing by double digits in real terms post pandemic, while real overall credit growth has been negative. Driven by Curaçao, mortgages are expected to remain on an upward trajectory, including financing for the construction of second homes and vacation rental apartments. In Sint Maarten, on the contrary, mortgage credit growth turned negative in 2024, possibly reflecting delays in construction projects and cross-border financing on the French side. With the islands’ financial sectors predominantly financing tourism-related activities, credit to non-tourism sectors is declining in real terms.

The financial sector is broadly sound and systemic risks are contained, but mortgage growth needs to be monitored closely while a macroprudential toolkit is further developed. Banks are well capitalized, among the highest in the region, but both NPLs and provisioning remain weaker than the CBCS early warning signal – and with respect to peers. Liquidity is abundant and has further increased, but the Union’s banks are somewhat less profitable than the Caribbean median and concentration remains high. Closely monitoring mortgage growth to detect overheating in the real estate sector and possible vulnerabilities in household balance sheets should become a priority, in particular given continued data gaps. Overcoming these gaps and further developing a macroprudential toolkit towards the introduction of CCyBs, and thresholds for the loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income ratios are warranted to detect vulnerabilities and ensure timely response to potential shocks. Caps on mortgage credit growth or mortgage loan exposure could be applied should the positive mortgage credit gap widen further.

The IMF mission would like to thank the authorities for their cooperation and the candid and constructive discussions that took place during June 18-25.