Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, July 24, 2025
IMF News, July 24, 2025
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- Published: July 24, 2025
Announcements and procedural items
- Briefing embargoed until 11 A.M. Eastern Time in the United States.
- World Economic Outlook Update to be released on Tuesday, July 29th.
- IMF Executive Board recess scheduled from August 4th through the 15th.
- Press contact: Meera Louis, Phone: +1 202 623-7100 Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
Global trade and tariffs
- IMF staff assessing recent developments including front-loading of exports and imports in Q1 ahead of expected tariff increases, subsequent trade diversion, and partial unwinding of front-loading.
- Mixed developments: some deals lowered tariffs while other measures increased tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper.
- April WEO context:
- Effective U.S. tariff rate based on April 2nd announcements: about 25 percent.
- Effective U.S. tariff rate based on the pause of April 9th: 14 percent.
- IMF will present a comprehensive assessment, including the new prevailing effective tariff rate and the impact on uncertainty, in the WEO next week.
Ukraine — program status and governance concerns
- IMF Board completed the Eighth Review of the EFF program on June 30th, enabling a disbursement of half a billion U.S. dollars and bringing total disbursements under the program to U.S. $10.6 billion.
- Authorities met end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria, the prior action required for the review, and two structural benchmarks.
- Assessment of enacted law: the law "neutralizes the effectiveness of Ukraine's anti-corruption institutions" and would be "very problematic for macroeconomic stability and growth in Ukraine."
- Importance of anti-corruption institutions:
- Central to IMF engagement over the past 10 years.
- Help level the playing field, improve the business climate, and attract private investment.
- Authorities intend to introduce a new bill to restore independence of anti-corruption institutions.
- IMF Staff and authorities will intensify discussions on the 2026 budget and assess Ukraine's financing needs for 2026 and over the medium term.
Argentina — First Review discussions
- Discussions on the First Review are "very advanced"; next step is a Staff-Level Agreement, expected "very shortly."
- Program has been underpinned by tight macroeconomic policies, including a strong fiscal anchor and a tight monetary policy stance.
- Transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime has been "smooth" and disinflation has resumed.
- Argentina has reassessed international capital markets earlier than initially anticipated under the program.
- Timing of any Board meeting and disbursement (including a referenced $2 billion figure in questioning) will be communicated after a Staff-Level Agreement is reached.
Senegal — misreporting matter and program prospects
- First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath met President Bassirou Faye on July 9th; IMF reiterated support as Senegal works to resolve the misreporting matter; President reaffirmed commitment to transparency and reform.
- IMF Staff team will visit Dakar tentatively later in August to:
- Discuss steps needed to bring the misreporting case to the Executive Board.
- Initiate discussions on contours of a new IMF-supported program for Senegal.
- Design corrective actions to address root causes of misreporting and strengthen capacity development.
- Forvis Mazars report:
- IMF has received a preliminary debt inventory prepared by Forvis Mazars.
- IMF Staff are reviewing the report in detail; preliminary assessment "broadly aligned with expectations"; final validation ongoing.
Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve commentary
- April WEO assessment for Japan:
- Growth projected to accelerate from 0.2 percent in 2024 to 0.6 percent in 2025.
- Inflation expected to converge to the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target by 2027.
- Policy advice for Japan:
- Japan faces high public debt and limited fiscal space.
- A clear fiscal consolidation plan is essential to offset pressures from rising interest payments and aging-related spending.
- Any fiscal response to shocks should be temporary and targeted; generalized subsidies and tax cuts should be avoided.
- U.S. outlook:
- High-frequency data indicate moderating domestic demand and low consumer and business sentiment.
- Labor markets remain resilient and unemployment remains relatively low.
- Inflation is on a path towards the Fed's 2 percent target but subject to upside risks; Fed must weigh administration policies and incoming data, including wage pressures, in rate decisions.
Sri Lanka — program progress and outlook
- Executive Board completed the Fourth Review under the EFF on July 1st, providing U.S. $350 million and bringing total IMF financial support to U.S. $1.74 billion.
- Key outcomes and metrics:
- Post-crisis growth rebound to 5 percent in 2024.
- Revenue-to-GDP ratio improved from 8.2 percent in 2022 to 13.5 percent in 2024.
- Debt restructuring nearly complete; reserves accumulating; inflation remains low; revenue collection improving.
- Program performance generally strong; Fifth Review expected in the fall, with teams assessing implications from global trade policy and uncertainty.
Syria and Egypt — IMF engagement
- Syria:
- IMF staff mission visited Syria June 1–5, first visit since 2009, to assess conditions and discuss policy and capacity-building priorities.
- Syria will need substantial international assistance (concessional finance and capacity development) to rehabilitate the economy, meet humanitarian needs, and rebuild institutions and infrastructure.
- IMF committed to supporting recovery and coordinating a detailed roadmap for policy and capacity building for Finance Ministry, Central Bank, and Statistics Agency.
- Egypt:
- IMF Staff mission to Cairo in May 2025 noted continued progress: improvements in inflation and foreign exchange reserves.
- Additional time needed to finalize key policy measures (reducing state footprint, implementing state ownership policy, leveling the playing field).
- Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the EFF will be combined and are expected to be completed in the fall.
Ghana — program status and monetary policy
- Executive Board completed the Fourth Review of Ghana's ECF on July 7th; Ghana received about U.S. $367 million, bringing total support to around U.S. $2.3 billion since May 2023.
- IMF welcomes corrective actions including a strong 2025 budget, audit of payables to quantify pre-election fiscal slippages, reforms to public financial management and procurement, and an energy sector strategy.
- Inflation path:
- Inflation at end 2022: 54 percent.
- Inflation at end June 2025: 14 percent.
- Bank of Ghana target: 8 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points.
- Monetary policy guidance: remain sufficiently tight to bring inflation down to the Bank of Ghana's target range.
El Salvador and digital assets
- El Salvador:
- IMF Executive Board completed the annual Article IV Consultation and the First Review of the EFF on June 27th, enabling access to U.S. $118 million; $231 million has been disbursed under the EFF approved in February.
- Program performance described as solid; key fiscal and reserve targets met with margins; progress on governance, transparency, and financial resilience.
- Bitcoin holdings: "total amount of Bitcoin held across government-owned wallets remains unchanged," consistent with program commitments; accumulation in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund relates to movements across government-owned wallets and is consistent with program conditionality.
- GENIUS Act and stablecoins:
- Stablecoins can deliver benefits (cheaper/faster cross-border payments, increased financial inclusion, portfolio diversification) but pose operational risks if not properly regulated.
- The GENIUS Act provides a comprehensive foundation for financial innovation balanced with consumer protection, market integrity, and clear oversight framework.
- IMF actively monitoring implications, especially for the international monetary system and potential spillovers to other jurisdictions.
UAE and GCC outlook
- UAE:
- Near-term growth strong and expected to remain "healthy at over 4 percent in 2025" (April WEO assessment).
- Growth supported by robust non-hydrocarbon activity: tourism, construction, public expenditure, and financial services; oil production increasing faster than expected due to reversal of production cuts.
- GCC region:
- Growth estimated at 1.4 percent in 2024; projected to increase to 3.3 percent in 2025.
- Non-hydrocarbon output growth expected to remain strong, supported by rapid investment, construction, and reforms to diversify economies.
- Inflation remains low; policy advice: fiscal prudence while accelerating fiscal reform implementation and diversification.
Malawi and South Africa (Africa-focused items)
- Malawi:
- 2025 Article IV Consultation completed July 22nd, 2025.
- HIPC history and current debt situation:
- Completed HIPC process in 2006 and secured U.S. $3.1 billion of debt relief through HIPC and MDRI.
- Public debt returned to unsustainable levels: total public debt reached 88 percent of GDP at the end of 2024.
- Interest bill on public debt estimated to approach about 7 percent of GDP.
- IMF advice: decisive steps to restore debt sustainability, including external debt restructuring, addressing high domestic borrowing costs, strengthening public debt management, and securing concessional financing.
- South Africa:
- April WEO outlook: growth projected at 1 percent for 2025 and 1.3 percent for 2026.
- Outlook described as subdued; uncertainty including global trade policies weighing on activity and delaying investment and consumption decisions.
- IMF to provide updated assessment in the July WEO; refer to April REO for Africa for regional estimates on impact of uncertainty and financial conditions.
Institutional and personnel notes
- Gita Gopinath:
- Managing Director announced on July 21st that First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath will leave the Fund at the end of August to return to Harvard University as the inaugural Gregory and Ania Coffey Professor of Economics.
- Background: joined the Fund in January 2019 as Chief Economist; promoted to First Deputy Managing Director in January 2022.
- Selection process note: Managing Director selects and appoints the First Managing Director and three Deputy Managing Directors; appointments subject to Executive Board approval; Managing Director consults with the Executive Board on desired qualifications.
Source: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, July 24, 2025