Rethinking Financial Stability: The FSAP at 20

October 14-15, 2019

This conference, marking the 20-year anniversary of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), will bring together top policymakers, academics, and practitioners. It will provide a unique opportunity to discuss latest thinking on financial stability. The first day will be relatively more technical, concentrating on advances in financial stress testing. The second day will be more policy oriented, reexamining the three key pillars of financial stability: (i) risk analysis, (ii) risk prevention and mitigation, and (iii) financial safety nets and crisis management. To increase impact, the conference is organized in the week of the IMF’s 2019 Annual Meetings in Washington, DC.

If you have any questions about the conference—or questions you’d like to ask the speakers—please send them to MCM-FSAP20@imf.org.

The conference is open for all participants registered for the IMF Annual Meetings. If you are already registered, please do not forget to bring your government-issued ID. Allow sufficient time to pick up your Annual Meetings badge and pass security.

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Day 1: Stress Testing: Cutting Edge

Over the past ten years, financial stress tests have become a crucial regulatory and supervisory tool. Their role and importance have evolved—from evaluating the resilience of an individual financial institution to that of a country’s financial system in its totality—and that calls for both reflection and new thinking. Most critically, that new thinking should benefit from experts coming from various countries and disciplinary backgrounds and reflect the complementary expertise of professionals from central banks, the private sector, and academia. Day 1 will allow for lively discussions on both strengths and limitations of stress testing. The discussions will be structured around the Handbook on Financial Stress Testing, to be published by Cambridge University Press, and edited by Doyne Farmer, Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Til Schuermann, and Thom Wetzer. The six sessions roughly correspond to the handbook’s five sections. The day should yield valuable new insights and help foster a community of financial stress testers.

Time

Location

Session Titles and Speakers

8:30am – 9:00am

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Conference registration

9:00am – 9:15am

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Introduction & Welcome : Doyne Farmer (Oxford University),Alissa Kleinnijenhuis (Oxford University), Til Schuermann (Oliver Wyman), Thom Wetzer (Oxford University); Martin Cihak (IMF)

9:15am – 10:30am

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Session I: Stress tests—history, objectives, and institutions

Richard Herring (Wharton School, Ch 3 & session chair), Miguel Segoviano (IMF, Ch 4), Itay Goldstein (Wharton School, Ch 30), Kathryn Judge (Columbia Law School, Ch 31), Paul Nahai-Williamson (Bank of England, Ch 5)

10:30am – 10:45am

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Coffee break

10:45am – 11:45pm

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Session II: Stress testing inputs and scenario design

Mark Flood (University of Maryland, Ch 6; session chair), Matthew Pritsker (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Ch 6), Elena Rancoita (European Central Bank, Ch 7), Iman van Lelyveld (DNB, Ch 10)

11:45am – 1:00pm

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Session III: Microprudential stress tests 1 (methods)

Til Schuermann (Oliver Wyman, Ch 11), Brian Peters (AIG, Ch 13),Greg Hopper (Goldman Sachs, Ch 8), Christine Cumming (Columbia SIPA, Ch 17 & session chair)

1:00pm–2:00pm

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Lunch/keynote : Nicolas Veron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute)

2:00pm – 3:00pm

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Session IV: Microprudential stress tests 2 (challenges)

Natasha Sarin (Penn Law, Ch 15), Tim Clark (formerly Federal Reserve Board, Ch 16 & session chair),Eduardo Canabarro (Formerly Barclays, Ch 32)

3:00pm – 4:30pm

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Session V: Macroprudential stress tests 1 (challenge and methods)

Patricia Mosser (Columbia SIPA, Ch 18 & session chair),Richard Berner (New York University, Ch 20), Alissa Kleinnijenhuis and Thom Wetzer (Oxford University), William English (Yale, Ch 23), Nathanael Benjamin (Bank of England, Ch 29)

4:30pm – 4:45pm

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Coffee break

4:45pm – 6:00pm

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Session VI: Macroprudential stress tests 2 (regulatory approaches)

David Rappoport (Federal Reserve Board, Ch 24), Virginie Traclet (Bank of Canada, Ch 25), Tobias Adrian (IMF, Ch 26 and session chair), Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank, Ch 27)

6:00pm–6:30pm

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Cocktail reception (by invitation only)

6:30pm–8:00pm

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Dinner/keynote (by invitation only):

Patrick Honohan (Former Governor, Central Bank of Ireland; Trinity College Dublin; Peterson Institute)
Speech: FSAP at 20

Robert Engle (Nobel Laureate, NYU Stern, Ch 14)
Speech: Measuring the Probability of a Financial Crisis

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Day 2: Strengthening Financial Stability: Quo Vadis?

More than a decade after the global financial crisis, and two decades since the inception of the Financial Sector Assessment Program, what have we learned about financial stability? What is “state of the art” in strengthening stability? To what extent have we incorporated the major shifts in structure and risks in the financial system? Are we able to detect new risks? And when we detect risks, are we truly ready to deal with them?

Day 2 will bring together representatives from IMF, the World Bank, central banks and agencies attending the Annual Meetings, as well as experts from academia and think tanks. Participants will also include private sector and other stakeholders. Speakers will be selected with a view to ensuring lively discussion, diversity of thought, and broad geographical coverage. The discussions will be organized around the three pillars of stability assessments: (i) risk analysis, (ii) risk prevention and mitigation, and (iii) financial safety nets and crisis management.

Time

Location

Session Titles and Speakers

8:30am–9:00am

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Coffee

9:00am–9:30am

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Introduction

David Lipton (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF)

9:30am–11:00am

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Session I: Risk analysis

John Geanakoplos (Yale University), Nellie Liang (Brookings Institution), Rama Cont (Oxford University). Moderator: Martin Cihak (IMF)

11:00am–11:15pm

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Coffee break

11:15am–12:45pm

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Session II: Risk prevention and mitigation

Elena Carletti (Università Bocconi), Stijn Claessens (Bank for International Settlements), Gary Gensler (MIT, Former Chair, Commodity Futures Trading Commission),Nathalie Aufauvre (Banque de France),Vincent Reinhart (BNY Mellon). Moderator: Nigel Jenkinson (IMF)

12:45pm–2:00pm

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Lunch Keynotes

Stefan Ingves (Sveriges Riksbank): “FSAP at 20”

Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University): “Rethinking Financial Stability”

2:00pm–3:30pm

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Session III: Financial safety nets and crisis management

Edward Kane (Boston College), Mark Branson (Financial Market Supervisory Authority, Switzerland),Santiago Fernandez de Lis (BBVA),Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (World Bank Group). Moderator: Marina Moretti (IMF)

3:30pm–3:45pm

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Coffee break

3:45pm–5:00pm

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Session IV: Policy panel discussion

Patrick Njoroge (Central Bank of Kenya), Socorro Heysen Zegarra (Banking, Insurance & Private Pension Fund Authority, Peru), Andrew Sheng (Fung Global Institute, and Former Chairman, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission), Doyne Farmer (Oxford University). Moderator: Tobias Adrian (Financial Counsellor and Director, IMF)

5:00pm–5:30pm

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Concluding remarks

Tao Zhang (Deputy Managing Director, IMF)