Emerging Markets in the New Normal: Dealing with Rising Domestic Leverage and the International Financial Cycles

Joint Bank of Thailand - IMF High Level Conference

November 5, 2019

The international financial cycle, including changes in monetary policy stance in advanced economies, creates several challenges for emerging markets and developing economies. While many countries have strengthened their policy frameworks to cope with a more challenging external environment, the prevalence of high private debt, both corporate and household, poses specific challenges to policymakers especially in the Asia-Pacific region. The conference will tease out these challenges by discussing the appropriate macroeconomic policy response, including macroprudential policy, and cross-country experience in dealing with private debt overhang given shifts in the international financial cycle. It aims to facilitate exchanges of views and experiences among policy makers and practitioners, and to come up with useful policy lessons learnt from countries in the region.

The conference will have three sessions:

  • The first session “Practical Lessons in Addressing High Private Debt” will discuss how countries can effectively deleverage high household and/or corporate debt to avoid impacts of debt overhang while maneuvering international financial cycles. This session will explore the practical experiences of countries that have implemented effective debt resolution strategies and challenges they faced.
  • The second session “Macro Policy Response to the International Financial Cycle” will discuss how countries in the region have used their macroeconomic policy tools to deal with the international financial cycle, including through monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies in the face of volatile capital flows.
  • The third session “Nexus Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policy” will highlight lessons learnt from the implementation of macroprudential policies (MPPs) by countries with different policy frameworks. It will explore the impact of monetary policy on financial stability, and the interplay between monetary policy, MPPs and capital flow measures (CFMs) in managing risks.

Audience: The conference is aimed at high-level international and regional policymakers and practitioners.

Monday November 4, 2019

19:00 – 21:00

Welcome Dinner

Venue: River Café and Terrace, Peninsula Hotel, Bangkok

Tuesday November 5, 2019

9:20 – 10:20

Opening Session

Welcoming Remarks:

Veerathai Santiprabhob, Governor, Bank of Thailand and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva

Fireside Conversation on “Sustainability Thinking & Macroeconomic and Financial Challenges

Moderator: Veenarat Laohapakakul

Speakers: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob

10:20 – 10:50

Group Photo Session and Coffee Break

10:50 – 12:00

SESSION I: Practical Lessons in Addressing High Private Debt

Moderator: Changyong Rhee, Director, Asia Pacific Department, IMF

Panelists:

Perry Warjiyo, Governor, Bank Indonesia

Andrew Sheng, Fung Global Institute

Rhoda Weeks-Brown, General Counsel and Director, Legal Department, IMF

12:00 –13:30

Lunch

13:30– 14:50

SESSION II: Macro Policy Response to the International Financial Cycle

Moderator: Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, Strategy Policy and Review Department, IMF

Panelists:

José de Gregorio, Former Central Bank Governor and Minister of Economy for Chile

Abdul Rasheed bin Abdul Ghaffour, Deputy Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia

Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of Thailand

Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF

14:50 – 16:10

SESSION III: The Nexus Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policy

Moderator: Ratna Sahay, Deputy Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

Panelists:

Howard Lee, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Edward Robinson, Deputy Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore

Piti Disyatat, Bank for International Settlements and Bank of Thailand

Joshua Aizenman, University of Southern California

16:100– 16:40

Coffee Break

16:40 – 18:00

SESSION IV: Round Table Discussion and Conclusion

Moderator: Kenneth Kang, Deputy Director, Asia Pacific Department, IMF

Panelists:

José de Gregorio, Former Central Bank Governor and Minister of Economy for Chile

Karnit Flug, Former Governor, Bank of Israel

Mathee Supapongse, Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand

Rhoda Weeks-Brown, General Counsel and Director, Legal Department, IMF

 18:30 – 20:30 Dinner for panelists hosted by BOT

Keynote Speaker: José de Gregorio, Former Central Bank Governor and Minister of Economy for Chile