Moderator:
Andrea Shalal, Reuters
Presentation:
Paulo Medas, Division Chief, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department
Panelists:
Silvia Ardagna, Head of European Economics Research, Barclays
Magalie Masamba, University of Pretoria, South Africa
Vitor Gaspar, Director, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department
December 12, 2022
This roundtable will mark the release of the IMF 2022 Global Debt Database and the launch of the IMF Global Debt Monitor. The discussion will focus on the pandemic impact on sovereign, household, and non-financial corporate indebtedness and challenges ahead.
The IMF’s Global Debt Database (GDD) is a unique dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world dating back to the 1950s. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency over time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, there are regular checks to improve the quality of the data including through bilateral consultations with country officials and IMF country desks. The GDD also helps to enhance data transparency across countries.
The latest update of the IMF’s Global Debt Database documents the largest one-year decline in global public and private debt-to-GDP ratios since the 1950s: Global debt fell 10 percentage points of GDP in 2021. This follows the largest one-year increase in global debt—in 2020, global debt rose 29 percentage points of GDP. In most countries, these large and unusual debt movements are driven by large economic fluctuations (COVID-19 recession followed by an economic rebound) and high inflation. Overall, global debt remained, in 2021, 19 percent of GDP above pre-pandemic levels. When measured in U.S. dollars, global debt has continued to rise, reaching the historical peak of $235 trillion.
Governments will need to manage high debt vulnerabilities including as central banks hike interest rates to tackle inflation, elevating the costs of borrowing for both public and private sectors. Debt distress is especially concerning among low-income developing countries where pandemic scars are more present and sovereign spreads are increasing substantially. Against this background, the roundtable will focus on the pandemic impact on sovereign, household, and non-financial corporate indebtedness and the challenges ahead.
The IMF’s Global Debt Database (GDD) is a unique dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world dating back to the 1950s. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency over time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, there are regular checks to improve the quality of the data including through bilateral consultations with country officials and IMF country desks. The GDD also helps to enhance data transparency across countries.
