IMF Conference
Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks
May 25, 2023
After decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of fragmentation. A shallow and uneven recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) was followed by Brexit, U.S.–China trade tensions, and a growing number of military conflicts. The post-GFC era has seen a leveling-off of global flows of goods and capital, and a surge in trade restrictions. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further tested international relations and increased skepticism about the benefits of globalization. With the world facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation, this one-day conference brings together leading scholars and policymakers to discuss the potential economic consequences of geoeconomic fragmentation, focusing on its effects on trade and capital flows, firms’ production networks, and technology diffusion.
First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath: Opening Remarks
Organizers: Shekhar Aiyar, Andrea Presbitero, and Michele Ruta
| 8:30-9:00 AM | Breakfast and Registration |
| 9:00-9:05 AM |
Opening Remarks: Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF |
| Download Sessions 1-5 Presentations | |
| 9:05-10:00 AM |
Session 1: Geoeconomic Fragmentation Chair: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF
Discussants: Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School and Ralph Ossa, World Trade Organization |
| 10:00-10:15 AM | Coffee Break |
| 10.15-11.30 AM |
Session 2: Trade Chair: Daria Zakharova, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF
Discussant: Michael Plummer, SAIS – Johns Hopkins University |
| 11:30 AM - 12:45 PM |
Session 3: Technology Chair: Helge Berger, Deputy Director, European Department, IMF
Discussant: Keith Maskus, University of Colorado Boulder |
| 12:45-2:00 PM |
Lunch Break |
| 2:00-3:15 PM |
Session 4: Financial Flows Chair: Fabio Natalucci, Deputy Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
Discussant: Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations |
| 3:15-3:30 PM |
Coffee Break |
| 3:30-4:45 PM |
Session 5: Global Value Chains and Foreign Direct Investment Chair: Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF
Discussant: Davin Chor (Dartmouth College) |
| 4:45-5:00 PM |
Closing Remarks: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, IMF |
For questions, please contact RESMSAST@imf.org.
