24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference
Global Interdependence
November 9-10, 2023
This year’s conference will honor Ken Rogoff’s contributions to economic research and policy. Rogoff is the preeminent scholar of international economics. Prior to his current position as Professor of Economics and Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics at Harvard University, Rogoff held appointments at Princeton University, the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. During 2001–2003, Rogoff served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Rogoff is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Group of Thirty, and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The conference will bring together an outstanding array of economists and policymakers, many of whom were Ken Rogoff’s students, colleagues, or collaborators. Mark Aguiar (Princeton University) will deliver the Mundell-Fleming Lecture.
The conference is open to the public and registration is required (registration will include all conference sessions, the Mundell-Fleming Lecture, and the Policy Panel). Please note that the deadline for registration for this conference is November 1st, 2023. Registered attendees will be required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington D.C. For questions regarding the conference, please email ARC@imf.org.
*These sessions are scheduled to be web streamed live on this page.
Agenda
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Thursday, November 9, 2023 |
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8:00 am - 9:00 am |
Registration and Continental Breakfast |
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9:00 am - 9:20 am |
OPENING REMARKS* Kristalina Georgieva (Managing Director, IMF) Read the Speech Gita Gopinath (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF) Watch the Video |
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SESSION I: EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND THE MACROECONOMY CHAIR: Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF) |
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9:20 am - 10:50 am |
What Drives the Exchange Rate? Oleg Itskhoki (University of California, Los Angeles) and Dmitry Mukhin (London School of Economics) Discussant: Harald Hau (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute) |
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Explaining the Great Moderation Exchange Rate Volatility Puzzle Vania Stavrakeva (London Business School) and Jenny Tang (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) Discussant: Valentina Bruno (American University) |
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10:50 am - 11:00 am |
COFFEE BREAK |
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SESSION II: GLOBAL INFLATION, INTEREST RATES AND MONETARY POLICY CHAIR: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF) |
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11:00 am - 12:30 pm |
Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley) Discussant: Josef Platzer (IMF) |
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What Explains Global Inflation? Jongrim Ha (World Bank), M. Ayhan Kose (World Bank), Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) and Hakan Yilmazkuday (Florida International University) Discussant: Hillary Stein (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
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12:30 pm - 2:00 pm |
LUNCH BREAK Luncheon Remarks by Hélène Rey (Lord Bagri Professor of Economics, London Business School) |
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POLICY PANEL: MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY* Moderator: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) |
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2:00 pm - 3:30 pm |
Panelists: Gita Gopinath (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF) Jerome Powell (Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve) Kenneth Rogoff (Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics, Harvard University) Amir Yaron (Governor, Bank of Israel) |
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3:30 pm - 3:45 pm |
COFFEE BREAK |
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SESSION III: EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORTS AND TRENDS IN INCOME FLOWS CHAIR: Antonio Spilimbergo (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF) |
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3:45 pm - 5:15 pm |
Can Sticky Quantities Explain Export Insensitivity to Exchange Rates? Doireann Fitzgerald (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), Yaniv Yedid-Levi (Reichman University), and Stefanie Haller (University College Dublin) Discussant: Romain Ranciere (University of Southern California) |
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International Investment Income: Patterns, Drivers, and Heterogeneous Sensitivities Cedric Tille (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies) and Giovanni Donato (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies) Discussant: Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (The Brookings Institution) |
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Friday, November 10, 2023 |
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8:30 am - 9:30 am |
Registration and Continental Breakfast |
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SESSION IV: SOVEREIGN DEBT: 200 Years of Creditor Losses CHAIR: Vitor Gaspar (Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF) |
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9:30 am - 11:45 am |
Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default Marcos Chamon (IMF) and Francisco Roldan (IMF) Discussant: Francesco Giavazzi (Bocconi University) |
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Sovereign Debt: 200 Years of Creditor Losses Clemens Graf von Luckner (Sciences Po), Josefin Meyer (DIW Berlin), Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University) and Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute) Discussant: Paul Schmelzing (Boston College) |
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Fiscal Rules and Market Discipline Ethan Ilzetzki (London School of Economics) and Heidi Christina Thysen (Norwegian School of Economics) Discussant: Olivier Blanchard (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
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11:45 am - 1:15 pm |
LUNCH BREAK |
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MUNDELL-FLEMING LECTURE: THE COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF SOVEREIGN BORROWING* |
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1:30 pm - 3:00 pm |
Mark Aguiar (Walker Professor of Economics and International Finance, Princeton University) Introduction by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director Research Department, IMF) |
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3:00 pm - 3:15 pm |
COFFEE BREAK |
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SESSION V: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM CHAIR: Tobias Adrian (Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF) |
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3:15 pm - 4:45 pm |
The International Supply of Liquidity Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern) Discussant: Olivier Jeanne (Johns Hopkins University) |
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Corporate Debt Structure with Home and International Currency Bias Matteo Maggiori (Stanford Graduate School of Business), Jesse Schreger (Columbia Business School), and Brent Neiman (U.S. Department of the Treasury) Discussant: Tarek Hassan (Boston University) |
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4:45 pm |
CLOSING REMARKS |
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Conference Organizing Committee: Rudolfs Bems (IMF, Associate Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Andrei Levchenko (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Michigan), and Prachi Mishra (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review)
Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo and Nicole Jales
Disclaimer: This web page contains links to papers that will be presented at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.