Policy Challenges in a Fragmenting World: Global Trade, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows
Joint BIS, BoE, ECB, and IMF Spillover Conference
Frankfurt, Germany
April 29-30, 2025
As the world economy faces unprecedented shifts, the dynamics of global trade, exchange rates and capital flows are evolving in ways that challenge established economic theory and policy frameworks. Rising geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and changing approaches to trade policy and financial regulation are reshaping global integration, capital mobility, and currency stability.
This conference brings together recent research in international economics and finance, offering insights that can inform policy design and support effective interventions.
Registration
If you would like to attend one or both days of the conference remotely, please register via the links below.
Agenda
Day 1: Tuesday, April 29
08:30 - Registration and coffee
09:00 - Welcome Speech
Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, Director General International and European Relations, European Central Bank
Financial and Trade Fragmentation: Risks and Policy Alternatives
- Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
09:30 - Session 1: Geoeconomics and Spillovers
Session chair: Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
Violent Conflict and Cross-border Lending
- Ralph De Haas, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and CEPR
- Mikhail Mamonov, Toulouse Business School
- Alexander Popov, European Central Bank and CEPR
- Iliriana Shala, Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University
Discussant: Mancy Luo, Bayes Business School
Industrial and Trade Policy in Supply Chains - The Case of Rare Earth Elements
- Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School, NBER and CEPR
- Harald Fadinger, University of Vienna and CEPR
- Jan Schymik, University of Mannheim
- Gede Virananda, Harvard Kennedy School
Discussant: Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, European Central Bank
11:30 - Coffee break
12:00 - Session 2 - Part 1: Global Value Chains and Trade Fragmentation
Session chair: Aqib Aslam, International Monetary Fund
The US-China Trade War and the Relocation of Global Value Chains to Mexico
- Hale Utar, Grinnell College, IZA and CESifo
- Alfonso Cebreros Zurita, Banco de Mexico
- Luis Torres Ruiz, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Discussant: Justin Pierce, Federal Reserve Board
13:00 - Buffet lunch
14:30 - Session 2 - Part 2: Global Value Chains and Trade Fragmentation
Session chair: Aqib Aslam, International Monetary Fund
Accounting for Propagation
- Lukas Boeckelmann, European Central Bank
- Jean Imbs, New York University Abu Dhabi and CEPR
- Laurent Pauwels, New York University Abu Dhabi and CAMA
Discussant: Anastasiia Antonova, Aix-Marseille School of Economics
15:30 - Coffee break
15:45 - Session 3: Shock Spillovers
Session chair: Sonya Zhu, Bank for International Settlements
Granular Expectation Shocks and International Financial Contagion
- Kenza Benhima, University of Lausanne and CEPR
- Elio Bolliger, University of Lausanne
- Margaret Davenport, King’s College London
Discussant: Paula Beltran, International Monetary Fund
Asymmetries in International Financial Spillovers
- Florian Huber, University of Salzburg
- Karin Klieber, European Central Bank
- Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University and CEPR
- Luca Onorante, European Commission Joint Research Centre
- Michael Pfarrhofer, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Discussant: Angela Abbate, Swiss National Bank
17:45 - End of first conference day
Day 2: Wednesday, April 30
08:30 - Registration and coffee
09:00 - Session 4: Capital Flows
Session chair: Julia Giese, Bank of England
Global Bank Lending and Exchange Rates
- Jonas Becker, Goethe University Frankfurt
- Xiang Li, Halle Institute for Economic Research
- Maik Schmeling, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR
- Andreas Schrimpf, Bank for International Settlements and CEPR
Discussant: Christian Kubitza, European Central Bank
Unbalanced Financial Globalization
- Damien Capelle, International Monetary Fund
- Bruno Pellegrino, Columbia Business School
Discussant: Kai Arvai, Banque de France
11:00 - Coffee break
11:30 - Session 5: International Role of Currencies and Exchange Rates
Session chair: Massimo Ferrari Minesso, European Central Bank
Measuring Dollar Funding Shortage
- Maylin Sun, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Filiz Unsal, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Beyond Bilateral Flows: Indirect Connections and Exchange Rates
- Saleem Bahaj, University College London
- Pasquale Della Corte, Imperial College London and CEPR
- Daniele Massacci, King’s College London and University of Naples Federico II
- Eduard Seyde, Imperial College London
Discussant: Giacomo Romanini, Banca d’Italia
13:30 - Buffet lunch
15:00 - End of conference
Please note that the agenda may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.
General Information
Venue: European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Language: English
Transfers: Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers from and to the airport, unless indicated otherwise.
Organizing Committee:
- Paula Beltran, International Monetary Fund
- Paolo Cavallino, Bank for International Settlements
- Michele Ca’ Zorzi, European Central Bank
- Massimo Ferrari, European Central Bank
- Marco Garofalo, Bank of England
- Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
- Gianni Lombardo, Bank for International Settlements
- Alberto Musso, International Monetary Fund
- Andrea Presbitero, International Monetary Fund
- Marco Pinchetti, Bank of England
- Roger Vicquery, Bank of England
- Soyna Zhu, Bank for International Settlements