Republic of Timor-Leste: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Timor-Leste
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 24, 2016
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Republic of Timor-Leste: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Timor-Leste
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: June 24, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498319492.002
Recent economic developments
- Growth has moderated while inflation has fallen sharply.
- There has been a sharp fall in oil revenues, creating difficult policy challenges.
- According to industry estimates, unless new oil reserves are developed, oil production is expected to decline further and cease by 2023.
Economic outlook and risks
- Major near-term risk is continued decline in oil production and oil revenues.
- Large development needs increase fiscal pressure and heighten sovereign vulnerability.
- The 2016 budget outlined a significant scaling up of public investment in 2017–19, which will strain fiscal sustainability.
Policy priorities and recommendations
- Prioritization of government expenditures to facilitate high-return infrastructure investments is key.
- Structural reforms are needed to catalyze nonoil private sector growth.
- Fiscal policy should balance development needs and medium-term fiscal sustainability given projected oil revenue declines.
Subject and keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Capital spending, Commodities, Expenditure, Oil, Oil prices, Prices, Public debt
- Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Capital spending, CR, current account, debt, dollarization regime, East Asia, Global, ISCR, Oil, oil GDP, Oil prices, Pacific Islands, PF withdrawal, real GDP, Southeast Asia, Timorese authorities, WTI crude