IMF Staff Country Reports

Thailand: Selected Issues

Publication Date:

June 19, 2008

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff baseline projections over the medium term. We analyze two main risk scenarios, and estimate that the output in Thailand may decline by up to 0.9 percent relative to the baseline. However, the adverse impact on Thai output is likely to be smaller than suggested above.

Series:

Country Report No. 2008/194

Subject:

Currencies Currency markets Exchange rates Financial markets Foreign exchange Money Output gap Production