IMF Staff Country Reports

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Debt Sustainability Analysis

January 28, 2005

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The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Debt Sustainability Analysis, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2005) accessed October 7, 2024

Summary

This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia’s external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia’s historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.

Subject: Debt sustainability analysis, Exports, External debt, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, International trade, Public debt

Keywords: Burden indicator, CR, Debt, Debt ratio, Debt service indicator, Debt sustainability analysis, Estimates of NPV, Exports, Fiscal stance, GDP deflator, ISCR, NPV, NPV of debt-to-exports ratio, NPV of debt-to-GDP, NPV of PPG, NPV of the public debt, PPG debt service-to-exports ratio, Ratio, Real GDP, Sustainability assessment, Sustainability framework

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    17

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Country Report No. 2005/027

  • Stock No:

    1ETHEA2005003

  • ISBN:

    9781451812732

  • ISSN:

    1934-7685