United Arab Emirates: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Arab Emirates
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 27, 2016
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- United Arab Emirates: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Arab Emirates
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 27, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498388689.002
Summary findings
- Non-oil economic activity slowed to 3.7 percent in 2015.
- Overall growth was partially offset by an increase in oil production.
- Fiscal balance turned to a deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP despite a strong fiscal policy response to adjust to lower oil prices.
- Current account surplus declined to 3.3 percent of GDP.
- Banks remained well capitalized and liquid.
- Pressures on bank profitability are emerging as asset quality weakens owing to the economic slowdown and rising funding costs.
- Economic activity is expected to moderate further in 2016, before improving over the medium term.
Macroeconomic performance and outlook
- Non-oil GDP growth: 3.7 percent in 2015.
- Near-term expectation: economic activity is expected to moderate further in 2016.
- Medium-term expectation: economic activity expected to improve over the medium term.
- Oil production: increase in oil production partially offset negative effects on overall growth (no numeric oil production figure provided).
Fiscal and external positions
- Fiscal balance: deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP in 2015.
- Fiscal policy: characterized as a strong fiscal policy response to adjust to lower oil prices.
- Current account: surplus declined to 3.3 percent of GDP.
Banking and financial sector
- Capitalization and liquidity: banks remained well capitalized and liquid.
- Profitability and asset quality: pressures on profitability are emerging as asset quality weakens owing to the economic slowdown and rising funding costs.