Republic of Kazakhstan: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, May 9, 2017
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Bibliographic details
- Published: May 9, 2017
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475598704.002
Growth outlook and projections
- Growth expected to strengthen to 2.5 percent in 2017 after a slowdown in 2016.
- Strength attributed to higher oil production and the effect of substantial fiscal stimulus spending.
- Medium-term non-oil sector growth expected to pick up gradually to 4 percent, benefiting from structural reforms and a resumption of bank lending.
Prices, exchange rate, and inflation
- The sharp exchange rate depreciation in late 2015 and early 2016 triggered a surge in consumer prices.
- Inflation has come down to levels consistent with the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s target range.
Uncertainty and downside risks
- Uncertainty is high because the economy remains vulnerable to commodity price swings.
- The economy is especially vulnerable to a sustained decline in oil prices.
Policy-relevant findings and implications
- Fiscal stimulus in 2017 supported the near-term growth pickup.
- Structural reforms and the resumption of bank lending are key for a gradual pick-up in non-oil sector growth.
- Continued attention to inflation developments and exchange rate dynamics remains important given past volatility.
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; and Staff Report — May 9, 2017
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- Country Report