Eastern Caribbean Currency Union : 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Author/Editor:

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publication Date:

March 5, 2020

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) saw a respite from major hurricanes, which facilitated growth acceleration to 3¾ percent in 2018-19. The fiscal position weakened, despite continued strength in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows, but with headline deficits remaining moderate the public debt ratio has continued to decline. However, underlying fiscal deficits remain high. External imbalances are sizable and significant financial sector vulnerabilities affect both banks and non-banks. Growth is projected to gradually moderate towards its long-term average of 2¼ percent as the cyclical momentum normalizes and CBI inflows ease. These trends would also contribute to wider fiscal deficits, ending the downward drift in public debt dynamics. Meeting the regional 60 percent of GDP debt benchmark by 2030 will be challenging for most countries. The outlook is clouded by downside risks, including a possible intensification of natural disasters and financial sector weaknesses. Larger wellmanaged CBI flows may be a source of an upside risk.

Series:

Country Report No. 20/70

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 5, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513536224/1934-7685

Stock No:

1ECCEA2020001

Format:

Paper

Pages:

79

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