Myanmar: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar

IMF Staff Country Reports, March 26, 2020

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Canonical URL: Myanmar: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar

Focus: Myanmar’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities.
Prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and thus does not reflect the implications of those developments or related policy priorities.
IMF staff is closely monitoring COVID-19 developments and related policy responses and will continue assessing impacts on the Myanmar economy.
Long-term prospects described as favorable; near-term growth likely to remain below potential.

Near-term growth pressures:
- Correction in real estate market weighs on investor sentiment in the runup to the 2020 elections.
- Continued uncertainty expected to dampen growth.
COVID-19 considerations:
- The report does not reflect COVID-19 implications; these developments have greatly amplified uncertainty and could heighten downside risks around the outlook.
Bank deleveraging effects:
- Starting FY2020/21, bank deleveraging will further slow credit and constrain gross domestic product growth as borrowers’ true ability to repay is revealed with term loans coming due and banks restructure in earnest.

Bank deleveraging anticipated to:
- Slow credit growth.
- Constrain gross domestic product growth beginning FY2020/21.
Investor sentiment is vulnerable to real estate correction and pre-election uncertainty.

Priority focus on near- and medium-term policy responses to emerging risks.
IMF staff monitoring:
- The situation including related policy responses from the authorities.
- Continued work on assessing COVID-19 impact on the Myanmar economy.

1. Macroeconomic Developments
- 1. Macroeconomic Developments (Markdown version)
- 1. Macroeconomic Developments (PDF)