Republic of Equatorial Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement By The Executive Director for Republic of Equatorial Guinea

IMF Staff Country Reports, August 3, 2022

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Republic of Equatorial Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement By The Executive Director for Republic of Equatorial Guinea

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: The Executive Director
• Published: August 3, 2022
• Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400216718.002

Summary and context

• The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, and Bata explosions in 2021, struck oil-exporter Equatorial Guinea at a time when its economic vulnerabilities had already been aggravated by a prolonged period of depressed hydrocarbon prices, and seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP.
• The economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the 2020-21 shocks, buoyed by higher international oil prices.
• Substantial challenges remain:
  • Short-term: surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term.
  • Medium-term: declining hydrocarbon production—and the implied decline in external reserves—loom over the medium term, especially in light of lagging governance and diversification reform implementation.

Major findings and risks

• Pandemic and disaster impacts:
  • COVID-19 in 2020-21 and the Bata explosions in 2021 compounded pre-existing vulnerabilities from prolonged low hydrocarbon prices.
• Economic performance:
  • Seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP preceded the 2020-21 shocks.
  • Recent recovery is supported by higher international oil prices.
• Short-term risks:
  • Surging food prices.
  • Banking sector vulnerabilities.
• Medium-term risks:
  • Declining hydrocarbon production.
  • Declining external reserves implied by lower hydrocarbon output.
  • Lagging implementation of governance and diversification reforms exacerbates medium-term vulnerability.

Subject coverage and keywords

• Subjects: Economic and financial statistics, Expenditure, External debt, Financial institutions, International organization, Monetary policy, Prices, Revenue administration
• Keywords: Africa, Arrears, asset declaration, audit report, Commercial banks, Energy subsidies, Equatorial Guinea's NFA, External sector statistics, Global, gradual ease, headline inflation, Oil prices

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