Thailand: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand

IMF Staff Country Reports, September 16, 2022

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Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ample policy space allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated.
The recovery is weak and uneven across sectors.
Inflation is rapidly rising, driven by energy prices.
Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs.
The pandemic increased urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet post-pandemic challenges.

Recovery characterized as weak and uneven across sectors.
Inflation dynamics: described as "rapidly rising" with energy prices as a driving factor.
Downside risks are emphasized as dominating the outlook and creating sharper policy tradeoffs.

Ample policy space permitted a swift and bold policy response to the pandemic.
Policy tradeoffs have been sharpened by rising inflation and downside risks (implicit tension between supporting the recovery and containing inflation).
Structural policy priority: identify new growth drivers to reverse declining productivity growth noted as a pre-pandemic trend.

Subject: COVID-19, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Health, Inflation, International organization, International trade, Monetary policy, Prices, Public debt, Trade balance
Keywords: COVID-19, Fiscal stance, Global, Inflation, inflation dynamics, inflation expectation, Medium-term government bond bond yield, monetary policy committee meeting, net portfolio inflow, Trade balance