Mongolia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

IMF Staff Country Reports, October 4, 2023

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Canonical URL: Mongolia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Growth rebounded to 5.0 percent in 2022.
External position stabilized driven by:
- China’s reopening,
- the government’s determined efforts to boost exports,
- private sector financing inflows.
The procyclical fiscal stimulus from the supplementary budget will lift near term growth and inflation.
The growth boost from the stimulus is expected to fade from 2024 onward as higher inflation and external pressures begin to weigh on the non-mining sector.

The supplementary budget’s procyclical stimulus increases macroeconomic stability risks.
Fiscal consolidation and adherence to fiscal rules are critical to ensure macroeconomic stability.
Recommended consolidation measures include:
- contain the wage bill,
- prioritize public investment,
- increase progressivity in personal income taxes,
- introduce means-tested social assistance targeting,
- continued improvements in public investment management and tax and customs administration.

A comprehensive development agenda is needed to reduce medium-term vulnerabilities.

Publication date: October 4, 2023
Pages: 109
Issue: 348
Series: Country Report No. 2023/348
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400255519.002
ISBN: 9798400255519
Subjects: Commercial banks; Environment; Financial institutions; Fiscal policy; Inflation; International organization; Monetary policy; Non-renewable resources; Prices; Public debt
Keywords: Asia and Pacific; Commercial banks; fund staff; Global; IMF expert; IMF staff calculation; IMF TA; Inflation; market segmentation; Non-renewable resources; swap line

International Monetary Fund. Mongolia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report (Country Report No. 2023/348), October 4, 2023.