IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Guyanese economy continues to experience record growth, supported by the government’s modernization plans and unparalleled oil and gas sector expansion. Guyana’s oil reserves per capita are one of the highest in the world. Going forward, oil production will continue to expand rapidly as four new fields will come on stream by end-2028. Sustained real non-oil gross domestic product growth is also expected, as the government continues to invest in human capital, lower energy costs, and build infrastructure, including for climate change adaptation. On the upside, further oil discoveries would continue to improve Guyana’s long-term economic prospects and a construction boom would support higher short-term growth than projected. The main downside risks are overheating, leading to inflationary pressures and appreciation of the real exchange rate beyond the level implied by a balanced expansion of the economy. Policy discussions focused on the authorities’ ambitious plans to rapidly transform Guyana using revenues from oil extraction, while ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability, mitigating risks, and adapting to climate change.