Chile: 2023 Article IV Consultation — Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
IMF Staff Country Reports, February 6, 2024
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- Chile: 2023 Article IV Consultation — Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 6, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400265907.002
Macroeconomic outlook and projections
- Growth is expected to pick up to close to 2 percent in 2024.
- Growth is projected at 2–2.5 percent in the medium term.
- Inflation is projected to converge to the 3-percent target in 2024.
Monetary and financial policy developments
- The Central Bank of Chile lowered the monetary policy rate by 400 basis points since July 2023 in the context of disinflation acceleration.
- The ongoing implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer will strengthen financial resilience in periods of stress.
Fiscal position and policy
- The headline fiscal balance is estimated to decline to about -2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023 due to:
- weaker tax revenues amid an economic slowdown,
- lower copper prices,
- other transitory factors.
- The 2024 budget envisions a moderate deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan to a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2026.
External risks and uncertainties
- Key external risks identified:
- uncertainties around the potentially higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies,
- a growth slowdown in major trading partners,
- the intensification of regional conflicts in the world.
Policy assessment and stance
- Macroeconomic imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved, supported by tighter macroeconomic policies deployed during late 2021–22.
- Policies have supported macroeconomic stability.
International Monetary Fund. Chile: 2023 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile (Country Report No. 2024/041).
Content in this bundle
- 1chlea2024001