Brazil: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 11, 2024
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- Brazil: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 11, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400282898.002
Key findings and recent performance
- Brazil’s economy has shown remarkable resilience amid ongoing disinflation.
- Economic activity has grown steadily, surpassing expectations, reflecting favorable demand and supply factors.
- With proactive and adequately restrictive monetary policy, headline inflation has declined to the target tolerance interval.
Growth and inflation outlook
- Gross domestic product growth is expected to moderate in 2024, reflecting:
- still restrictive monetary policy,
- a lower fiscal deficit,
- the flood calamity in Rio Grande do Sul,
- and normalization of agricultural output.
- Growth is projected to strengthen to 2.5 percent over the medium term, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point since the 2023 Article IV Consultation.
- Investment in green growth opportunities could further boost economic potential.
Drivers of the medium-term outlook
- Projected gains are supported by:
- efficiency gains from the value-added tax reform,
- growing hydrocarbon output.
- Continuing implementation of reforms that:
- promote trade integration,
- enhance governance,
- simplify business regulation,
would yield productivity gains.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Maintain proactive and adequately restrictive monetary policy until durable disinflation is secured.
- Continue fiscal consolidation efforts that contribute to a lower fiscal deficit while supporting resilience.
- Advance reforms to:
- unlock efficiency gains from the value-added tax reform,
- promote trade integration,
- enhance governance,
- simplify business regulation.
- Prioritize investment in green growth opportunities to boost economic potential and medium-term growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. "Brazil: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil", IMF Staff Country Reports 2024, 209 (2024), July 11, 2024.
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