IMF Staff Country Reports

The CEMAC economy gained some momentum in 2024, and inflation
continued to ease while still above the regional converge criterion. The external position
weakened further, with the current account deficit rising and the reserve coverage
stagnating. Preliminary data on fiscal outturns suggest a worsening fiscal position,
reflecting large fiscal slippages. An extraordinary Conference of CEMAC Heads of State
(HoS) took place in December 2024. HoS reaffirmed their political commitment to a
consistent and coordinated regional strategy to preserve fiscal sustainability, financial
sector stability, and to strengthen CEMAC’s external position. Under the baseline, the
external position is expected to progressively weaken over the medium term. Without
decisive corrective actions—i.e., a stronger fiscal consolidation in some member
countries—the reserve coverage could fall below 4 months of prospective import by
2027, far under the assessed adequate level (5 months). Post-election economic plans
for a more sustainable policy mix, in line with HoS commitments and prospective IMF-supported arrangements, could steer the region towards a resilient outlook and stabilize
(if not increase) the current reserve coverage, while strengthening the fiscal position.
The baseline excludes these anticipated corrective actions pending their full definition,
scope, and implementation plan. Both outlooks (baseline and resilient) are subject to
high uncertainty and elevated risks, notably related to debt rollover, tightening financing
conditions and sovereign debt distress.