Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director

IMF Staff Country Reports, July 9, 2025

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Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director

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Bibliographic details

• Published: July 9, 2025
• Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016476.002

Economic performance and inflation (2024)

• The CEMAC economy "gained some momentum in 2024."
• Inflation "continued to ease while still above the regional converge criterion."

External position and reserves

• "The external position weakened further, with the current account deficit rising and the reserve coverage stagnating."
• Under the baseline projection, "the external position is expected to progressively weaken over the medium term."
• Without decisive corrective actions, "the reserve coverage could fall below 4 months of prospective import by 2027, far under the assessed adequate level (5 months)."

Fiscal developments

• "Preliminary data on fiscal outturns suggest a worsening fiscal position, reflecting large fiscal slippages."
• The baseline outlook "excludes" post-election corrective actions pending "their full definition, scope, and implementation plan."

Political commitments and regional strategy

• An extraordinary Conference of CEMAC Heads of State (HoS) took place in December 2024.
• HoS "reaffirmed their political commitment to a consistent and coordinated regional strategy to preserve fiscal sustainability, financial sector stability, and to strengthen CEMAC’s external position."

Outlook scenarios and conditional pathways

• Baseline scenario:
  • Progressively weakening external position over the medium term.
  • Reserve coverage risk: could fall below 4 months of prospective import by 2027.
• Resilient (conditional) scenario:
  • "Post-election economic plans for a more sustainable policy mix, in line with HoS commitments and prospective IMF-supported arrangements, could steer the region towards a resilient outlook and stabilize (if not increase) the current reserve coverage, while strengthening the fiscal position."
  • This scenario is conditional on implementation of stronger fiscal consolidation in some member countries and the definition of full reform plans.

Risks and uncertainties

• Both outlooks ("baseline and resilient") are "subject to high uncertainty and elevated risks," notably related to:
  • "debt rollover,"
  • "tightening financing conditions"
  • "sovereign debt distress."

Thematic coverage (subjects and keywords)

• Subjects: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), Asset and liability management, Crime, Financial sector policy and analysis, Financial sector stability, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Liquidity, Public debt.
• Keywords include: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), CEMAC authorities, CEMAC banking legislation, CEMAC banking system, CEMAC economy, CEMAC program country, Financial sector stability, financing condition, Fiscal stance, Global, Liquidity, Middle East, Policy discussion.

Source: Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director, July 9, 2025.

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