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Contents |
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Preface (192KB pdf file) |
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| Chapter I. |
Global Financial System Resilience in the Face of Cyclical Challenges (1,100KB pdf file) |
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Possible Cyclical Challenges Facing Financial Markets |
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Assessment of Financial Stability and Policy Implications |
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Appendix: Emerging Market Financing Flows |
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References |
| Chapter II. |
The Influence of Credit Derivative and Structured Credit Markets on Financial Stability (352KB pdf file) |
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Market Growth and Development |
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Financial Stability and Potential Economic Effects |
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Conclusions and Policy Implications |
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References |
| Chapter III. |
Structural Changes in Emerging Sovereign Debt and Implications for Financial Stability (960KB pdf file) |
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Improvements in Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Structure and Investor Base |
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EM Sovereign Debt Structures, Financial Vulnerabilities, and Contagion |
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Conclusions and Policy Implications |
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Appendix I: Selected Operations by EM Sovereigns |
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Appendix II: Description of Data |
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References |
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| Glossary (192KB pdf file) |
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| Annex: Summing Up by the Chairman (192KB pdf file) |
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| Statistical Appendix (1,300KB pdf file) |
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| Boxes |
| 1.1 |
Financial Systems in Mature and Emerging Markets |
| 1.2 |
Is the Market Underpricing Risk? |
| 1.3 |
Flattening and Inversion of the Yield Curve: Implications and Outlook |
| 1.4 |
Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Market Countries |
| 1.5 |
Main Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Spreads: Fundamentals or External Factors? |
| 1.6 |
Petrodollar Recycling and Capital Flows into the United States |
| 1.7 |
Financial Implications of an Avian Flu Pandemic |
| 1.8 |
Collective Action Clauses |
| 2.1 |
Credit Derivatives: Basic Taxonomy and Terminology |
| 2.2 |
Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer and EM Securitization |
| 2.3 |
Use of Synthetic Techniques for Insurance Risk |
| 2.4 |
Islamic Finance and Credit Risk Transfer |
| 2.5 |
Delta-Adjusted Measure of Risk Transfer |
| 2.6 |
Impact of Bond Spreads on Credit Extension |
| 3.1 |
Best Practices in Debt Management from OECD Countries |
| 3.2 |
Developments in Debt and Risk Management Capacity in Emerging Markets |
| 3.3 |
Mexican Warrants |
| 3.4 |
Cross-Country Differences in the Currency Composition of Domestic Sovereign Debt |
| 3.5 |
Technical Factors Contributing to Widening Investor Base |
| 3.6 |
Impact of Changes in Sovereign Debt Structure on Sovereign Credit Risk |
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| Tables |
| 1.1 |
Sectoral Balance Sheets |
| 1.2 |
Equity Valuations |
| 1.3 |
Emerging Markets and Developing Countries: Current Account Balance and External Financing |
| 1.4 |
Emerging Market External Financing |
| 3.1 |
Emerging Markets: Macroeconomic Fundamentals |
| 3.2 |
Sovereign Debt Indicators: Sample Description, End-2004 |
| 3.3 |
Sovereign Debt Structures of Individual EM Countries |
| 3.4 |
EM Prefinancing of 2006 External Debt |
| 3.5 |
Selected External Liability Management Operations by EM Sovereigns, 2003–05 |
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| Figures |
| 1.1 |
Financial Indicators for U.S. and European Banks |
| 1.2 |
Corporate Spreads |
| 1.3 |
Implied Volatilities |
| 1.4 |
Ten-Year Inflation Expectations |
| 1.5 |
Short-Term Interest Rate Expectations |
| 1.6 |
Corporate Upgrade Minus Corporate Downgrade Actions |
| 1.7 |
Bank Lending Standards from Surveys of Loan Officers |
| 1.8 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Financing Gap |
| 1.9 |
U.S. Corporate Sector Earnings Interest Coverage Ratio |
| 1.10 |
Net U.S. Corporate Dividend Payments |
| 1.11 |
Japanese Dividend Growth and Payout Ratio |
| 1.12 |
Announced Share Buybacks |
| 1.13 |
Global Merger Activity |
| 1.14 |
Issuance of Leveraged Loans |
| 1.15 |
U.S. Asset-Backed Spreads |
| 1.16 |
Emerging Market Spreads |
| 1.17 |
Spread Differences Between Emerging Market and U.S. Corporates |
| 1.18 |
Asset Class Performance, 1990–2006 |
| 1.19 |
Asset Class Performance, 2003–06 |
| 1.20 |
Cumulative Gross Annual Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity |
| 1.21 |
Gross Bond Issuance |
| 1.22 |
Quarterly Net Issuance |
| 1.23 |
Syndicated Loan Commitments |
| 1.24 |
Equity Placements |
| 1.25 |
Nonresident Holdings of Local Government Bonds |
| 1.26 |
Cumulative Net Inflows into Emerging Market Equity Funds |
| 1.27 |
Flows into Asian Emerging Market Equities |
| 1.28 |
Turkey: Foreign Investment in the Stock Market |
| 1.29 |
Mexico: Nonresident Holdings of Local Equities |
| 1.30 |
Brazil: Foreign Investment in the Stock Market |
| 2.1 |
Global Credit Derivatives Outstanding |
| 2.2 |
Global Issuance of Collateralized Debt Obligations: Cash Versus Synthetic |
| 2.3 |
Credit-Oriented Hedge Fund Assets Under Management VersusCredit Derivatives Outstanding |
| 2.4 |
Global Issuance of Collateralized Debt Obligations by Underlying Assets |
| 2.5 |
Growth of Credit Derivatives Market Relative to Growth of Interest Rate Swaps Market |
| 2.6 |
Credit Cycle Dynamics |
| 3.1 |
EM Public Debt, Debt Service, and Credit Ratings |
| 3.2 |
EM Private Sector Debt Held by Nonresidents |
| 3.3 |
Reserves Accumulation and External Debt Management Operations |
| 3.4 |
Structure and Dynamics of EM Sovereign and External Debt |
| 3.5 |
Currency Composition and Jurisdiction of Issuance of EM Sovereign Marketable Debt |
| 3.6 |
Gross International Debt Securities Issuance by EM Sovereigns |
| 3.7 |
Maturity Structure and Indexation of Domestic Sovereign Marketable Debt |
| 3.8 |
Average Remaining Maturity of Local Currency Fixed-Rate Marketable Debt of Selected EM Sovereigns |
| 3.9 |
Composition of Investors in Domestic Debt of Selected Mature Markets |
| 3.10 |
EM Investor Holdings of Domestic Central Government Debt |
| 3.11 |
Risk-Return by Asset Class, 2001–05 |
| 3.12 |
Investment Flows in EM Debt |
| 3.13 |
EM Domestic Debt: Shares Held by Foreign Investors |
| 3.14 |
Share of Nonresident Holdings of Government Local Currency Bonds |
| 3.15 |
Allocation of International Investors in EM Bonds to Local Currencies |
| 3.16 |
Holders of EM Domestic Debt |
| 3.17 |
Holdings of External Debt by Residents of Issuing Country |
| 3.18 |
Share of Foreign Currency Debt in Total Sovereign Marketable Debt |
| 3.19 |
Foreign Exchange Risk Exposures of Selected EM Sovereigns |
| 3.20 |
External Sovereign Market Debt Maturing in Less Than One Year |
| 3.21 |
Short-Term Domestic Sovereign Marketable Debt |
| 3.22 |
Domestic Sovereign Debt Maturing in Less Than One Year |
| 3.23 |
Modified Duration of the EMBIG and GBI-EM Indexes of Selected EM Countries |
| 3.24 |
Six-Month Correlations of Daily Returns for EM Bonds |
| 3.25 |
Adjusted and Unadjusted Correlations of EM Returns |
| 3.26 |
Geographical Distribution of EM Creditors, End-2003 |