Global Financial Stability Report
Market Developments and Issues
December 2002
December 2002
©2002 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information
The Global Financial Stability Report provides quarterly assessments of global financial markets and addresses emerging market financing in a global context. |
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| Contents | ||
| Preface | ||
| Chapter I. | Overview: Key Developments and Sources of Financial Market Risks (366KB pdf file) | |
| Key Developments | ||
| Sources of Risk | ||
| Measures to Promote Financial Stability | ||
|
Development of Local Securities Markets: Emerging Derivatives Markets |
||
| Chapter II. | Key Developments and Sources of Financial Risk in the Major Financial Centers (306KB pdf file) | |
| Key Developments | ||
| The Capacity of Key Sectors to Intermediate and Bear Financial Risks | ||
| References | ||
| Chapter III. | Emerging Market Developments and Finance (470KB pdf file) | |
| Emerging Market Financing Overview | ||
| Emerging Bond Markets | ||
| Performance and Spread Developments | ||
| Regional Developments | ||
| Investor Positioning | ||
| Primary Bond Market Developments | ||
| Emerging Equity Markets | ||
| Syndicated Lending | ||
| Emerging Market Foreign Exchange | ||
| Key Risks to Emerging Market Finance | ||
|
|
References | |
| Chapter IV. | Selected topic: The Role of Financial Derivatives in Emerging Markets (289KB pdf file) | |
| Derivatives in Emerging Market Economies | ||
| Local Derivatives Markets and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies | ||
| The Role of Derivatives in Emerging Market Crises | ||
| Concluding Remarks | ||
| References | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 3.1 | Risk Retrenchment and Risk Indicators | |
| 3.2 | Local Debt Structure and Vulnerability to Volatile Debt Dynamics | |
| 3.3 | Recovery Rates from Defaulted Debt | |
| 3.4 | Collective Action Clauses | |
| 3.5 | Emerging Market Bond Developments Since the End of September | |
| 4.1 | The Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros of Sao Paulo | |
| 4.2 | Credit Default Swap Spreads in Emerging Markets | |
| Tables | ||
| 1.1 | Financial Market Data | |
| 2.1 | United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets | |
| 2.2 | Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets 19 | |
| 2.3 | Europe: Selected Financial Indicators for the 20 Largest Banking Groups, 2001 | |
| 2.4 | Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets | |
| 3.1 | Emerging Market Financing Overview | |
| 3.2 | EMBI+ Performance, 2002 | |
| 3.3 | Equity Market Performance, 2002 | |
| 3.4 | Sector and Country Performance | |
| 4.1 | Notional Amounts Outstanding of the Over-the-Counter and Exchange-Traded Derivatives | |
| 4.2 | Average Daily Turnover in the Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets | |
| 4.3 | Exchange-Traded Options and Futures Contract Trading Volume, 2001 | |
| Figures | ||
| 2.1 | Stock Prices in Selected Major Industrial Countries | |
| 2.2 | United States, Euro Area, and Japan: Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads | |
| 2.3 | Historical Volatility: Major Stock Market Indexes | |
| 2.4 | Currency Derivatives | |
| 2.5 | United States: Debt Outstanding by Sector | |
| 2.6 | U.S. and European Banking Systems: Return on Equity | |
| 3.1 | Emerging Market Financing | |
| 3.2 | Cumulative Gross Annual Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity | |
| 3.3 | Sovereign Spreads | |
| 3.4 | EMBI+ Volatility | |
| 3.5 | Average Correlation of Emerging Debt Markets | |
| 3.6 | Brazil | |
| 3.7 | Real/U.S. Dollar 10-Day Rolling Volatility | |
| 3.8 | On-Shore Dollar Curve | |
| 3.9 | Average Correlations of the Returns on Emerging Equity Market Indices | |
| 3.10 | Net Foreign Equity Purchases and the Kospi | |
| 3.11 | Equity Placements | |
| 3.12 | Forward Looking Price-Earnings Ratio | |
| 3.13 | Twelve-Month Forward Earnings Growth, Emerging Markets Free and S&P 500 | |
| 3.14 | Syndicated Loan Commitments | |
| 3.15 | Shares of Total Issuance | |
| 3.16 | Loan-Weighted Interest Margin 48 | |
| 3.17 | Emerging Market Currencies: Historical Volatilities | |
| 3.18 | Latin American Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar | |
| 3.19 | Latin American Currencies: Trade-Weighted Indices and Volatility | |
| 3.20 | Asian Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar | |
| 3.21 | Volatility of Asian Currencies: Bilaterally and Trade-Weighted | |
| 4.1 | Korea: Three-Year Government Bond and Bond Futures | |
| 4.2 | Kospi 200 Index Futures: Cumulative Net Purchases | |
| 4.3 | Brazil: International Bond and Loan Issuance and Derivatives Trading Volume | |
