Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Occasional Papers, May 23, 2003

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Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Richard Hemming, Axel Schimmelpfennig, Michael Kell
• Published: May 23, 2003
• Series: Occasional Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589061965.084

Research questions and scope

• Addresses four central questions:
  • What are the fiscal causes of crises?
  • Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises?
  • Can fiscal variables explain the severity of crises?
  • What are the fiscal consequences of crises?
• Empirical scope:
  • Statistical analysis of a large data set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over 1970-2000.
  • Detailed case studies of 11 emerging market crises during the 1990s focusing on structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.

Key findings and analytical approach

• Empirical basis:
  • Combines cross-country statistical analysis and in-depth case studies to link fiscal variables to currency, debt, and banking crises.
• Emphasis:
  • Fiscal problems are treated as a central feature of financial crises (currency, debt, and banking).
  • Case studies concentrate on structural and institutional determinants of fiscal vulnerability rather than only cyclical indicators.

Publication and metadata

• Authors: Richard Hemming, Axel Schimmelpfennig, Michael Kell
• Publication date: May 23, 2003
• Series: Occasional Paper No. 2003/002
• Issue: 002
• Pages: 131
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589061965.084
• ISBN: 9781589061965
• ISSN: 0251-6365

Subjects and keywords

• Subject: Banking crises, Currency crises, Early warning systems, Financial crises, Fiscal policy, Public debt
• Keywords: Africa, Banking crises, country case studies, crisis, Currency crises, debt, debt crisis, debt variable, deficit, emerging market crisis, Global, OP, short-term debt, vulnerability indicator

Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies (Occasional Paper No. 2003/002), International Monetary Fund