2014 Spillover Report

Policy Papers, June 25, 2014

Source details

Global spillovers have entered a new phase.
With crisis-related spillovers and risks fading, changing growth patterns are the main source of spillovers in the global economy at this juncture.
Two key trends:
- Signs of self-sustaining recovery in some advanced economies indicate that the unwinding of exceptional monetary accommodation will proceed and lead to a tightening of global financial conditions in the coming years.
- Growth in emerging markets is slowing on a broad basis since its precrisis peak and can carry noticeable spillover effects at the global level.
An uneven recovery suggests normalization will proceed at different times in different countries, with possible spillover implications.

Crisis-related spillovers and risks are fading.
Changing growth patterns (advanced economies recovering; emerging markets slowing) are the primary current sources of global spillovers.
The unwinding of exceptional monetary accommodation in advanced economies is expected to tighten global financial conditions in the coming years.
The timing of normalization will vary across countries, creating potential cross-country spillover effects.

Model code and programs used for the spillover simulations can be made available.
Data used for the empirical analysis can be made available unless restricted by copyright or confidentiality issues.
Catalogue of all charts from the 2014 Spillover Report is referenced (external spreadsheet link indicated in source).

2014 Spillover Report, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 0) accessed 9/18/2026

2014 Spillover Report: IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report -- IMF Policy Paper; June 25, 2014
- 2014 Spillover Report: IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report -- IMF Policy Paper; June 25, 2014 (Markdown version)
- 2014 Spillover Report: IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report -- IMF Policy Paper; June 25, 2014 (PDF)