REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in the Asia and Pacific regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in the regions, and discuss key challenges faced by policymakers. They address regional policy developments and challenges, and provide country-specific data and analysis, including through analytical pieces on issues of interest to the regions.

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2023

October 13, 2023

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2023

Description: Challenges to Sustaining Growth and Disinflation

The Asia-Pacific region remains a key driver of global growth in 2023, despite facing headwinds from changing global demand from goods to services and tighter monetary policies. The region is expected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023, up from 3.9 percent in 2022. However, growth is projected to slow to 4.2 percent in 2024 and 3.9 percent in the medium term, as China's structural slowdown (Chapter 3 explains) and lower productivity growth in many other economies dampen the region's potential. Inflation is expected to decline in 2024 and stay within central bank target ranges in most countries, a faster pace of disinflation than in other regions (Chapter 2 explains.) Risks to the outlook have become more balanced than they were six months ago, although they still lean to the downside.

May 1, 2023

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific May 2023

Description: Despite weakening external demand and monetary tightening, domestic demand has so far remained strong, with China’s reopening providing fresh impetus. IMF Asia and the Pacific remains a dynamic region despite the somber backdrop of what looks to be shaping up as a challenging year for the world economy. Global growth is poised to decelerate as rising interest rates and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and banking strains in the United States and Europe have injected greater uncertainty into an already complex economic landscape. Asia’s domestic demand has so far remained strong despite monetary tightening, while external appetite for technology products and other exports is weakening. We project the region will contribute around 70 percent of global growth this year as its expansion accelerates to 4.6 percent from 3.8 percent in last year. China’s reopening will provide fresh momentum. Normally the strongest effect would be from demand for investment goods in China, but this time the biggest effect is from demand for consumption. Other emerging economies in the region are on track to enjoy solid growth, though in some cases at slightly lower rates than seen last year.

2022

October 27, 2022

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2022

Description: After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 5½ percent seen over the preceding two decades.

April 21, 2022

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, April 2022

Description: Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, April 2022

2021

October 19, 2021

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2021

Description:

The Asian outlook for 2021 has been downgraded by more than 1 percent to 6.5 percent compared with the April 2021 World Economic Outlook because of new peaks of the pandemic cycle driven by the highly contagious Delta variant. As vaccination rates accelerate, the region is expected to grow slightly faster in 2022 than anticipated earlier. Although Asia and Pacific remains the fastest growing region in the world, the divergence between Asian advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies is deepening, reflecting vaccination coverage and policy support, and medium-term output levels in emerging market and developing economies are expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends. Risks are tilted to the downside, mainly because of uncertain pandemic dynamics, vaccine efficacy against virus variants, supply chain disruptions, and potential global financial spillovers from US monetary normalization in the presence of domestic financial vulnerabilities.

April 13, 2021

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific

Description: The Asian economic recovery stands out because of prompt and effective policies during pandemic’s acute phase. The next phase is even more challenging: to lay the foundation for a more inclusive, greener, and resilient region.

2020

October 21, 2020

Navigating the Pandemic: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia

Description: Asia-Pacific has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic and is recovering from a severe recession. The outlook varies by country depending on infection rates and containment measures, policy responses, reliance on contact-intensive activities, and external demand. Output is expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends over the medium term, with the most vulnerable in society likely to be hit the hardest. The projections remain highly uncertain, with significant downside risks.

2019

October 22, 2019

Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Caught in Prolonged Uncertainty

Description: Headwinds from prolonged global policy uncertainty, distortionary trade measures, and growth deceleration in the economies of important trading partners are influencing economic growth in Asia and the Pacific. Although the region is still the world’s fastest growing major region, contributing more than two-thirds to global growth, near-term prospects have deteriorated noticeably since the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, with risks skewed to the downside.

2018

October 11, 2018

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia Pacific

Description:

Asia has achieved remarkable economic success over the past five decades. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty, and successive waves of economies have made the transition to middle-income and even advanced-economy status. And whereas the region used to be almost entirely dependent on foreign know-how, several of its economies are now on the cutting edge of technological advance. Even more striking, all of this has happened within just a couple of generations, the product of a winning mix of integration with the global economy via trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), high savings rates, large investments in human and physical capital, and sound macroeconomic policies.

May 9, 2018

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia Pacific

Description: The world economy continues to perform well, with strong growth and trade, rising but still muted inflation, and accommodative financial conditions, notwithstanding some increased financial market volatility in early 2018. Driven partly by the procyclical tax stimulus in the United States, near-term economic prospects for both the world and Asia have improved from the alreadyfavorable outlook presented in the October 2017 Regional Economic Outlook Update: Asia and Pacific. Asia is expected to grow by around 5½ percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook, policymakers must remain vigilant. While risks around the forecast are broadly balanced for now, they are skewed firmly to the downside over the medium term. Key risks include further market corrections, a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions. With output gaps closing in much of the region, fiscal policies should focus on ensuring sustainability. Given still moderate wage and price pressures, monetary policies can remain accommodative in most Asian economies for now, but central banks should stand ready to adjust their stances as inflation picks up, and macroprudential policies should be used appropriately to contain credit growth. Many Asian economies face important medium-term challenges, including population aging and declining productivity growth, and will need structural reforms, complemented in some cases by fiscal support. Finally, the global economy is becoming increasingly digitalized, and some of the emerging technologies have the potential to be truly transformative, even as they pose new challenges. Asia is already a leader in many aspects of the digital revolution, but to remain at the cutting edge and reap the full benefits from technological advances, policy responses will be needed in many areas, including information and communication technology, trade, labor markets, and education. 

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