Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2010 -- Table of Contents
Middle East and Central Asia, May 25, 2010
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2010 -- Table of Contents
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: May 25, 2010
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Overview
- The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.
- A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
- The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit.
- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, exports have begun to pick up, the decline in remittances appears to be slowing or reversing, and capital inflows have turned positive.
- For 2010, a recovery across the region is projected as the global economy, and in particular Russia, picks up speed.
- Overall prospects for the region are improving, though a repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.
- The regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far.
Main findings by subregion
- MENAP Oil Exporters
- Emerging from the crisis aided by resumption of capital inflows and rebound in crude oil prices.
- Figures and boxes related: A.1.2 Exports and Imports of Goods; A.1.3 Financing Conditions before and after the Dubai World Crisis; A.1.4 External Reserves and Crude Oil Prices; A.1.5 Credit and Deposits; A.1.6 Non-GCC: External and Fiscal Balances; A.1.7 GCC: External and Fiscal Balances; A.1.8 Beginnings of Inflationary Pressures?
- Box: A.1.1 The Dubai World Crisis.
- MENAP Oil Importers
- Expected marginal increase in growth from pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit.
- Key challenge: enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and generate employment.
- Figures and boxes related: A.2.1 Lagging Growth; A.2.2 External Receipts on the Mend; A.2.3 Fiscal Situation; A.2.4 Stock Markets Still Far from Peak; A.2.5 Lower Risk Premiums; A.2.6 Real Exchange Rates Appreciated from Precrisis; A.2.7 Lagging Trade Performance; A.2.8 Challenging Competitive Environment; A.2.9 Unemployment Has Stayed High.
- Highlighted issue: Recent Declines in Credit Growth.
- Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)
- Incipient recovery: exports picking up, remittances stabilizing or reversing decline, capital inflows positive.
- For 2010, recovery projected as global economy and Russia pick up speed.
- Figures and boxes related: B.1.2 Signs of Recovery; B.1.3 Fiscal Policy Stance; B.1.4 Energy Importers Have Limited Fiscal Room; B.1.5 Early Signs of Price Pressures?; B.1.6 Recent Gains in Competitiveness; B.1.7 Financial Sector Stress Building Up.
- Banking focus: B.2.2 Deposit Dollarization: 2002–07; B.2.3 Precrisis Exposure to Direct and Indirect Currency Risk; B.2.4 Effects of the Crisis: Depreciations and Balance Sheet Deteriorations.
- Box: B.1.1 2009: Similar Shocks, Different Growth Outcomes.
- Box: B.2.1 IMF, EBRD, and National Bank of Georgia Conference Explores Ways to Revive Credit.
Risks and uncertainty
- A repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.
- The regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far, but remain sources of potential contagion.
Policy challenges and recommendations
- Enhance competitiveness in oil-importing countries to raise growth rates and generate employment.
- Revive bank credit in MENA to support a stronger recovery (see A.3 Reviving Bank Credit in MENA).
- Broaden capital flow sources for MENAP (see A.4 Capital Flows to the MENAP Region: Going Beyond Traditional Sources).
- Address financial sector stress and balance sheet vulnerabilities in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Contents structure (major report components)
- Preface
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Country and Regional Groupings
- Highlights
- Chapters: A.1–A.4 (MENAP topics); B.1–B.2 (CCA topics)
- Statistical Appendix
- Boxes (A.1.1; A.3.1; B.1.1; B.2.1)
- Figures (detailed figure list across A.1–B.2, including sectoral and balance indicators)
- Tables (Selected Economic Indicators: MENAP Oil Exporters; Selected Economic Indicators: MENAP Oil Importers; Selected Economic Indicators: CCA; Countercyclical Monetary Policies and Response of Lending Rates; Statistical Appendix Tables 1–21)
Key numeric and dated references preserved from the source
- Report date reference: May 2010
- Projection year explicitly mentioned: 2010
- Box and figure numbering preserved (examples): A.1.1; A.3.1; B.1.1; B.2.1; A.1.2; A.3.2; B.1.2
- Time series range cited: 1983–2008
- Specific period cited for deposit dollarization figure: 2002–07
- Year referenced for comparative shocks box: 2009
Source: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2010 -- Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- صندوق النقد الدولي: آفاق الاقتصاد في بلدان الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا
- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى 25 مايو/أيار 2010
- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى -- الفصول 1-4
- 中东和中亚
- Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale : Principaux points des Perspectives économiques régionales – Mai 2010
- Perspectives économiques régionales
- Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia
- Middle East and Central Asia: May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook Highlights
- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia
- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia
- Перспективы развития: региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия
- The Caucasus and Central Asia
- Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, май 2010 года
References
- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
- Modify your profile
- Watch a video on Growth Gains Strength in Middle East and North Africa
- Watch a video on Signs of Recovery in Caucasus and Central Asia
- Reviving Credit Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia: What Can Policymakers Do?
- Downturn After Boom: Slow Credit Growth in Middle East, North Africa
- Growth Picks Up in Middle East, But Credit Still Sluggish,
- IMF Sees Early Signs of Rebound in Central Asia, Caucasus,
- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/mreo0510menap.ppt
- عربي
- https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/mreo0510menapf.ppt
- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/mreo0510CCA.ppt
- https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/mreo0510CCAr.ppt
- Press Release: Growth Gains Strength in Middle East and North Africa, but Sluggish Credit Impedes Stronger Recovery
- Press Release: IMF Sees Incipient Recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia
- Regional Economic Outlooks
- World Economic Outlook:
- Ordering Information
- Adobe Acrobat Reader