Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents
Middle East and Central Asia, October 24, 2010
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- Published: October 24, 2010
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Overview
- The October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.
- With the rebound in crude oil prices and production, the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa will see visible improvements in their fiscal and external balances in 2010–11.
- Going forward, further efforts at financial sector development and economic diversification top the agenda.
- The region’s oil-importing countries, which include Afghanistan and Pakistan, have weathered the global recession well; Pakistan, however, suffered from devastating floods in July/August, which will hold back growth this year.
- The overriding longer-term challenges for oil-importing countries are to raise growth and provide jobs for expanding populations.
- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, recovery has gained momentum in virtually all countries, aided by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment.
- Exports are picking up, and remittances are rebounding, though at a slowing pace.
- Despite the broadly positive outlook, risks are largely on the downside.
- A priority is to resolve banking sector problems and, in some countries, to reduce external debt and current account deficits.
MENAP Oil Exporters: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 1)
- Headline: MENAP Oil Exporters: Well Placed to Focus on Medium-Term Challenges
- Findings:
- The postcrisis recovery continues.
- There is less pressure on government budgets.
- Accommodative monetary policy may soon have to shift gears.
- Break-even oil prices in 2010 are explicitly referenced among figures.
- Policy priorities:
- Refocusing medium-term fiscal policy.
- Moving on financial sector development.
- Figures and items referenced (selection):
- Oil Sector Leads the Way in Growth Recovery
- Recuperating Stock Markets (Figure 1.5)
- Some Signs of Inflationary Pressures (Figure 1.6)
- Better Fiscal Balances (Figure 1.7)
- Fiscal Stances Vary Widely (Figure 1.8)
- Credit and Deposits (Figure 1.9)
- Break-Even Oil Prices in 2010 (Figure 1.10)
MENAP Oil Importers: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 2)
- Headline: MENAP Oil Importers: Adjusting to New Global Growth Patterns
- Findings:
- Recovery gathers momentum.
- Fiscal consolidation under way.
- Monetary policy can remain accommodative.
- Current growth is too low to address unemployment.
- Greater competitiveness is key to lifting growth.
- Specific issues:
- Pakistan’s unprecedented floods in July/August with significant social and economic impact (Box 2.1).
- Annex 2.1 title: 18 Million Jobs Needed: Raising Growth and Labor Market Responsiveness.
- Figures and items referenced (selection):
- Inflation Holding Steady (Figure 2.5)
- Currencies Mostly Appreciating (Figure 2.6)
- Lagging Output and Export Growth (Figure 2.7)
- Growth Differentials Explained (Figure 2.8)
- Competitiveness and Doing Business Indicators (Figure 2.9)
- Exports and Remittances Pick Up
- Growth Gains Ground, but Remains below Precrisis Levels
- Disposable Income Has Not Yet Recovered in Many Countries
- Private-Sector Credit Growth Remains Largely Subdued
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 3)
- Headline: The Caucasus and Central Asia: Challenges Beyond the Crisis
- Findings:
- Recovery gains traction across virtually all countries.
- Banking sectors are not out of the woods, yet.
- Macroeconomic policies should adapt as recovery gathers momentum.
- Fiscal policy should aim for consolidation in 2011.
- Monetary policy can remain accommodative, mostly.
- Addressing external vulnerabilities is a priority.
- Annex and box highlights:
- Annex 3.1: Strengthening Monetary Transmission in the CCA
- Box 3.1: Russia Recovers
- Box 3.2: Political and Ethnic Turmoil Leaves its Mark on the Kyrgyz Economy
- Box 3.3: Wheat Price Woes?
- Box 3.4: The Impact of the Belarus–Kazakhstan–Russian Federation Customs Union
- Figures and items referenced (selection):
- High, and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans (Figure 3.5)
- Grants to Return to Precrisis Levels in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.6)
- Public Debt Has Risen in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.7)
- Trimming Down Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.8)
- Oil and Gas Exporters: Time for Fiscal Consolidation (Figure 3.9)
- High Current Account Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.10)
- Foreign Direct Investment Still in Short Supply in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.11)
- Oil and Gas Importers’ External Debt Is High and Rising (Figure 3.12)
- High Levels of Dollarization (Figure 3.13)
Boxes, Annexes, and Special Topics
- Boxes across chapters include:
- 1.1 Dependence on Oil: Cross-Country Comparison
- 1.2 Update on Dubai World’s Debt Restructuring
- 1.3 Recent Inflation Dynamics in GCC Countries
- 1.4 Financial Sector Policy Responses to the Crisis Vary With Different Initial Conditions
- 2.1 Unprecedented Floods in Pakistan: The Social and Economic Impact
- 2.2 Why Is Inflation High in Egypt and Pakistan?
- 2.3 Trade Patterns and Determinants in MENAP Oil-Importing Countries
- 3.1 Russia Recovers
- 3.2 Political and Ethnic Turmoil Leaves its Mark on the Kyrgyz Economy
- 3.3 Wheat Price Woes?
- 3.4 The Impact of the Belarus–Kazakhstan–Russian Federation Customs Union
- 2.4 Stock Markets Still Far from Peak
- Annexes:
- Annex 2.1. 18 Million Jobs Needed: Raising Growth and Labor Market Responsiveness
- Annex 3.1. Strengthening Monetary Transmission in the CCA
Data, Figures, and Tables Inventory (selected)
- Figures listed include thematic and numbered items such as:
- Oil Sector Leads the Way in Growth Recovery
- Exports Outpace Imports
- Current Account Balances Improve Across the Board
- More Favorable Financing Conditions, for the Most Part
- 1.5 Recuperating Stock Markets
- 1.6 Some Signs of Inflationary Pressures
- 1.7 Better Fiscal Balances
- 1.8 Fiscal Stances Vary Widely
- 1.9 Credit and Deposits
- 1.10 Break-Even Oil Prices in 2010
- 2.5 Inflation Holding Steady
- 2.6 Currencies Mostly Appreciating
- 2.7 Lagging Output and Export Growth
- 2.8 Growth Differentials Explained
- 2.9 Competitiveness and Doing Business Indicators
- 3.5 High, and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans
- 3.6 Grants to Return to Precrisis Levels in Oil and Gas Importers
- 3.7 Public Debt Has Risen in Oil and Gas Importers
- 3.8 Trimming Down Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers
- 3.9 Oil and Gas Exporters: Time for Fiscal Consolidation
- 3.10 High Current Account Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers
- 3.11 Foreign Direct Investment Still in Short Supply in Oil and Gas Importers
- 3.12 Oil and Gas Importers’ External Debt Is High and Rising
- 3.13 High Levels of Dollarization
- Tables and statistical appendix tables include:
- Table: Fiscal Consolidation Measures Planned for 2011
- Statistical Appendix Tables 1 through 21, including:
- 1 Real GDP Growth
- 2 Nominal GDP
- 3 Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth
- 4 Crude Oil Production and Exports
- 5 Consumer Price Inflation
- 6 Broad Money Growth
- 7 Central Government Fiscal Balance
- 8 Central Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants
- 9 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance
- 10 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue
- 11 General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending
- 12 Total Government Debt
- 13 Exports of Goods and Services
- 14 Imports of Goods and Services
- 15 Current Account Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars)
- 16 Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)
- 17 Gross Official Reserves
- 18 Total Gross External Debt
- 19 Capital Adequacy Ratios
- 20 Return on Assets
- 21 Nonperforming Loans
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 — Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2
- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث
- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى
- 2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点
- _mreo1024chap12fpdf
- Mreo1024hifpdf
- Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010
- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia -- Highlights; October 2010
- Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010
- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010.
- Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010
- Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса
- Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года
- Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года
References
- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
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- [Watch video:
IMF Says Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=645438011001)
- Is There a Silver Lining to Sluggish Credit Growth in the Gulf Countries?
- More than 18 Million Jobs Needed!
- Raising Competitiveness: Recipe for Tapping into the Middle East’s Growth Potential
- IMF Sees Growth Rebounding in Middle East and North Africa, Policy Focus to Shift to Structural Priorities
- Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa
- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1024MENAP.ppt
- https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPf.ppt
- عربي
- [Watch video:
IMF Says Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=651003664001)
- Addressing External Vulnerabilities in the Oil-Importing Countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia
- IMF Regional Outlook Sees Recovery Taking Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia
- Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus, Central Asia
- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1028CCA.ppt
- https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/mreo1028CCAr.ppt
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