Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2012 -- Table of Contents
Middle East and Central Asia, November 11, 2012
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- Published: November 11, 2012
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Regional outlook summary
- The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed.
- Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks.
- For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions weigh on growth; policy buffers are largely eroded, increasing the urgency of macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms.
- The region's oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya's better-than-expected postwar recovery.
- In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions.
- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices, supportive commodity prices, remittance inflows, and moderate direct exposure to Europe.
- The positive outlook for CCA provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for downside risks.
MENAP: Oil exporters — key findings and risks
- Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy.
- Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances.
- A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk.
- Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience.
- Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price.
- Inflation Developments Mixed.
- Renewed Bond Issuance.
- Reforms for More Inclusive Growth.
- Annexes and special topics:
- Annex 1.1. The Natural Gas Market: Where Is It Heading?
- Natural Gas Supply Is Meeting Demand.
- The Increasing Importance of Shale Gas.
- Benefits of Indexation to Oil, Regional Segmentation.
- Annex 1.2. Inward Spillovers to MENA Countries from a GDP Shock in G3 Countries:
- Shock to Chinese GDP.
- Shock to U.S. GDP.
- Shock to Euro Area GDP.
MENAP: Oil importers — key findings and policy priorities
- Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013.
- Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising.
- External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished.
- Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility.
- Rising Subsidies, Deteriorating Fiscal Positions.
- Rising Debt Levels, Consolidation Necessary.
- Financial Sector: Mixed Performance.
- Downside Risks Are Elevated.
- Need to Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability.
- Minimizing the Growth & Social Impact of Fiscal Consolidation.
- Structural Reforms Needed to Enhance Inclusive Growth.
- Annex 2.1. MENAP & CCA Countries: Highly Vulnerable to Food Price Hikes.
Caucasus & Central Asia (CCA): resilience and uncertainties
- Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains.
- Oil and Gas Exporters: benefiting from high oil prices.
- Oil and Gas Importers: benefiting from supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows.
- Downside Risks: Moderate Impact from Euro Area Crisis.
- Annex 3.1. Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus & Central Asia:
- The Size of Informality.
- What Are the Causes and Indicators of Informality?
- Policy Recommendations to Reduce Informal Economies.
Policy recommendations (cross-regional priorities)
- Strengthen policy buffers while opportunity exists in CCA.
- Implement expenditure restraint in oil exporters to increase resilience to oil price drops.
- Restore macroeconomic sustainability in MENAP oil importers through consolidation and exchange rate flexibility.
- Protect the poor through safety nets and minimize growth and social impacts of fiscal consolidation.
- Advance growth-oriented structural reforms to foster inclusive growth and private-sector job creation.
Chapters, boxes, figures, tables, and statistical appendices (selected)
- Chapters and highlights:
- MENAP Highlights; CCA Highlights.
- Chapters 1-2 and Chapter 3 focus areas.
- Notable boxes include:
- 1.1 Libya: Moving Beyond the Revolution.
- 1.2 What Is the 'Right' Surplus for the GCC?
- 2.1 Syria's Crisis: Domestic Economic Impact & Regional Spillovers.
- 2.6 Is There Scope for Growth-Friendly Fiscal Consolidation in MENAP Countries?
- 3.1 The Kyrgyz Republic: Emerging from a Domestic Crisis.
- Figures include country- and theme-specific charts such as:
- 1.1 2012 GDP Growth Boosted by Libya.
- 1.2 Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy.
- 1.6 Fiscal Balances Sensitive to Oil Prices.
- 2.3 Weak Recovery in 2013.
- 3.6 Current Account Balance.
- Tables and statistical appendices cover selected economic indicators for:
- MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000–13.
- MENAP Oil Exporters: Selected Economic Indicators.
- MENAP Oil Importers: Selected Economic Indicators.
- CCA Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000–13.
- Detailed statistical appendix tables 1 through 26 (Real GDP Growth; Nominal GDP; Oil & Non-Oil Real GDP Growth; Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production; Breakeven Oil Prices; Consumer Price Infl ation; Broad Money Growth; Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing; Total Government Gross Debt; Gross Offi cial Reserves; Capital Adequacy Ratios; Nonperforming Loans; etc.).
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2012 — Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- _menap1112ch12apdf
- أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان
- عرض عن آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا
- أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان
- 高加索和中亚：要点
- Perspectives économiques du Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan: Chapitres 1 & 2
- Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord
- Presentation des Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord
- Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord
- КОА аймағының басты мəселелері - Кавказ жəне Орталық Азия
- Highlights on The Caucasus and Central Asia
- Presentation on Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook
- Chapter 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains
- Highlights on the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa
- Presentation of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook
- Chapter 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs
- Chapter 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth
- Regional Economic Outlook: Mi ddle East and Central Asia, November 2012
- _cca1112chrpdf
- Кавказ и Центральная Азия
- Кавказ и Центральная Азия Перспективы развития региональной экономики
References
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- Press Release: Divergent Economic Performance Continues Across the Middle East
- IMF Survey: Divergent Economic Performance Continues Across the Middle East
- Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Countries Fare Well Despite Some Downside Risks
- Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Countries Fare Well Despite Some Downside Risks
- Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
- Regional Economic Outlooks
- IMF Regional Reports
- World Economic Outlook Archives
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