Sub-Saharan Africa
Building Momentum in a Multi-Speed World
May 2013
©2013 International Monetary Fund
Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 5½ percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.
| Contents | ||
| Abbreviations | ||
| Acknowledgements | ||
| In Brief | ||
| 1. Building Momentum in a Multi-Speed World | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| Robust Performance and Strong Outlook | ||
| Risk Scenario Analysis | ||
| Policy Issues and Recommendations | ||
| Concluding Remarks | ||
| 2. Strengthening Fiscal Policy Space | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| The Level of Public Debt as a Constraint on Financing Deficits | ||
| Availability of Financing as a Constraint on Avoiding Procyclicality | ||
| Strengthening Fiscal Positions Over the Medium-Term—To What End? | ||
| 3. Issuing International Sovereign Bonds: Opportunities and Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| Experience with Sovereign Bond Issues in Sub-Saharan Africa | ||
| Sub-Saharan Africa’s Candidates for Debut Sovereign Bonds | ||
| Concluding Remarks | ||
| 4. Reforming Energy Subsidies | ||
| Introduction | ||
| Energy Subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costly, Poorly Targeted, and Inefficient | ||
| Challenges to Energy Subsidy Reform | ||
| Elements of a Successful Reform Strategy | ||
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| References | ||
| Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–13 | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 1.1 | Revisions to National Accounts Estimates among Sub-Saharan African Countries | |
| 1.2 | Changing Monetary Policy Frameworks in East Africa | |
| 1.3 | Debt Trends in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries | |
| 1.4 | The Financing of Current Account Deficits in Low-Income Countries | |
| 1.5 | The Sectoral Distribution of Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 2.1 | Public Debt Sustainability Threshold | |
| 2.2 | Do Vulnerable Low-Income Countries Have Fiscal Policy Space? | |
| 3.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Local Currency Bond Markets | |
| 3.2 | Zambia: Accessing International Sovereign Bond Markets | |
| 3.3 | Nigeria: Issuing a Sovereign Bond | |
| 3.4 | Côte d’Ivoire: Bond Issuance for Debt Restructuring | |
| 4.1 | Energy Reforms Payoff in Kenya and Uganda | |
| 4.2 | Mitigating Measures to Protect the Poor | |
| Tables | ||
| 1.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth | |
| 1.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators | |
| 3.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign Bond Issuances | |
| 3.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign Credit Ratings, March 2013 | |
| 3.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Maximum Amortization in 2013–17 Exceeding 500 million U.S. dollars | |
| 3.4 | Comparison of Financing Sources | |
| Figures | ||
| 1.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Food and Nonfood Inflation | |
| 1.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2007–14 | |
| 1.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: General Government Debt, 2007–14 | |
| 1.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance, 2004–14 | |
| 1.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports and Imports by Regional Groups | |
| 1.6 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Stock Market Indices | |
| 1.7 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Reserve Coverage and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.8 | Selected Regions: Real GDP Growth, 2008–14 | |
| 1.9 | Selected Regions: Inflation, 2008–14 | |
| 1.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects, 2013 and 2014 | |
| 1.11 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Downside Scenarios | |
| 2.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Density of Public Sector Debt, 2000–12 | |
| 2.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Public Debt Accumulation Decomposition, 2000–12 | |
| 2.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Public Sector Debt, 2007–12 | |
| 2.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Sector Debt in 2012 and Sustainability Thresholds | |
| 2.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Density of Public Sector Debt, 2012–17 | |
| 2.6 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Sector Debt in 2012, 2017, and Sustainability Thresholds | |
| 2.7 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Composition of Government Deficit Financing, 2007–12 | |
| 2.8 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Composition of Government Deficit Financing, 2008–12 | |
| 2.9 | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Budget Support, 2007–12 | |
| 2.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Composition of Credit, end-2012 or the Most Recent Year Available | |
| 2.11 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in Government Deposits, 2000–12 | |
| 2.12 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Deposits in Banking System and Foreign Reserves, end-2012 or the Most Recent Year Available | |
| 3.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Sovereign Bond Issuances | |
| 3.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign Debt Restructurings with Private Creditors, 1980–2010 | |
| 3.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Primary Fiscal Balance, Expenditure, and Public Debt-Cases Other than Debt Restructuring | |
| 3.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Primary Fiscal Balance, Expenditure, and Public Debt-Cases InvolvingDebt Restructuring | |
| 3.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Share of Public Debt Denominated in Foreign Currency | |
| 3.6 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Investment after Bond Issuance | |
| 3.7 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign Bond Issuance Terms | |
| 3.8 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Market Performance for Selected Countries | |
| 3.9 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign Bond Ratings, 2012 | |
| 3.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Public External Debt by Creditor, 2011 | |
| 4.1 | Selected Regions: Electricity Production, 1975–2009 | |