Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa - Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World (October 2012) — Table of Contents

Sub-Saharan Africa, October 12, 2012

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Bibliographic details

• Published: October 12, 2012
• Series: Sub-Saharan Africa

Overview and Near-Term Outlook

• Economic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa have remained generally robust despite a sluggish global economy.
• The near-term outlook for the region remains broadly positive, and growth is projected at 5¼ percent a year in 2012–13.
• Most low-income countries are projected to continue to grow strongly, supported by domestic demand, including from investment.
• The outlook is less favorable for many of the middle-income countries, especially South Africa, that are more closely linked to European markets and thus experience a more noticeable drag from the external environment.
• Main risks to the outlook:
  • An intensification of financial stresses in the euro zone.
  • A sharp fiscal adjustment in the US–the so called fiscal cliff.

Major Themes and Analytical Chapters (Table of Contents)

• In Brief
• 1. Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World
  • Introduction and Summary
  • Resilience in the Face of an Uncertain Environment
  • Risk Scenario Analysis
  • Is There Still Room for Policy Action if Needed?
  • Policy Recommendations
  • Concluding Remarks
• 2. Nigeria and South Africa: Spillovers to the Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa
  • South Africa’s Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Nigeria’s Impact on its Neighbors
• 3. Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Stylized Facts
  • Sectoral Perspectives
  • Some Impediments to Structural Transformation
  • Conclusions and Future Prospects
• Statistical Appendix
• References
• Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–12

Boxes and Focused Analyses

• 1.1 South Sudan: Newest IMF Member
• 1.2 Debt Dynamics in the Baseline over the Medium-Term
• 1.3 Global Food Prices and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa
• 1.4 Energy Subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costly, Untargeted, and Inefficient
• 2.1 The Role of Nigeria and South Africa in the Network of Sub-Saharan African Merchandise Trade
• 2.2 Linkages among Sub-Saharan Africa Stock Exchanges
• 2.3 Spillovers within the Southern Africa Customs Union
• 2.4 Energy Linkages between Nigeria and Surrounding Countries
• 2.5 Informal Trade between Benin and Nigeria
• 3.1 Structural Transformation in Asia
• 3.2 Formal and Informal Employment

Key Data Tables and Indicators

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundness Indicators in 2011, Selected Countries
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Indicators for Fiscal Policy Room
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Nonfinancial South African Firms Operating in the Region
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Key South Africa-based Financial Groups Operating in the Region
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Linkages with South Africa, 2010
• Main Recipients of Remittances from Nigeria
• Nigeria and Neighboring Countries’ GDP
• Nigeria and Neighboring Countries’ CPI
• Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Productivity Growth and Change in Agricultural Output Shares, 1995–2010
• Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Output Shares of Ariculture, Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, and the Tertiary Sector, 1995–2010
• Education Characteristics 2010
• Structural Impediments

Key Figures and Visual Analysis

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Food and Nonfood Inflation
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal Credit to the Private Sector
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–13
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Debt Ratios, 2000–12
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports and the Current Account by Regional Groups
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundness Indicators
• Selected Regions: Real GDP Growth, 2008–13
• Selected Regions, Inflation, 2008–13
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects, 2012–13
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Downside Scenario
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in CPI Inflation from 12-months Earlier, End-2012 vs. End-2011
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Reserve Coverage and Current Account Balance
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Intra-Regional Exports, 1981–2010
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports to South Africa from Neighboring Countries
• South Africa: Outward Direct Investment
• BLNS: Customs Revenue Payments
• Bilateral Correlations of Output in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Western Africa: Exports to Nigeria
• Relevance of Imports from Nigeria
• Number of Subsidiaries of Nigerian-based Banks
• Share of Migrants to Nigeria to Total Population
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Agriculture’s Shares in GDP and Total Employment and Real GDP per capita, 2010
• Average Labor Productivity
• Growth Rate of Real GDP per Person in the Labor Force, 1995–2010
• Average Years of Total Schooling and Highest Level of Education Attained
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Sectoral Output and Employment, 1995–2010
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Labor Productivity and Change in Employment Shares, 1995–2010
• Asia: Labor Productivity and Change in Employment Shares, 1995–2010
• Average Labor Productivity in the Agriculture Sector, 1985–2010
• Manufacturing Productivity Growth vs. Real GDP Per Capita
• Change in Manufacturing and Mining Output and Export Shares, 1995–2010
• Change in Service Output and Export Shares, 1995–2010
• Tanzania: Composition of Exports of Goods and Services
• Namibia: Composition of Manufactured Exports
• Mauritius: Exports and FDI Inflows
• Contribution to Real GDP Growth by Sector, 2005–11
• Kenya: ICT Services Exports

Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa - Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World, October 2012 — International Monetary Fund

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References

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• Press Release: IMF Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa: “Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World”
• Podcast: Africa Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World
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